Second round: peace and war, geopolitical trials

The situation in the Middle East continues to be tense and uncertain. As the two-week ceasefire in the US-Israeli war against Iran expires, the conflict is on the fragile borderline between war and negotiations.

US President Donald Trump has stated that he will probably not extend the ceasefire established in Iran on April 7 and will not open the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not signed in the near future. He repeated once again that Iran should give up its plans to have nuclear weapons, and according to Trump, the removal of enriched uranium will be a long and complicated process. “We are winning the war, everything is going very well, our army has achieved excellent results“, the US president emphasized.

According to Trump, Iran’s navy, air force, air defense have been destroyed, and there has been a change of power in the republic.

«The blockade of Iran will continue until there is a deal. But I won’t let the Democrats rush the United States into a deal that won’t be very good.– added the head of the White House.

Trump noted that the new deal with Tehran will be much more effective than the nuclear deal signed by Barack Obama.

«Our deal will guarantee peace, security and safety not only for Israel and the Middle East, but also for Europe, America and the whole world,” the US president emphasized, concluding that if the new leaders of the Islamic Republic are smart, Iran can have a bright future.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Donald Trump, by imposing a blockade and violating the ceasefire regime, seeks to turn the negotiation process into a “capitulation table” or to justify the resumption of military escalation. According to him, the US is trying to dictate conditions through pressure and threats, but Tehran does not accept negotiations under blackmail and threats.

Ghalibaf emphasized that in the last two weeks, Iran has prepared new “playing cards” in the field of confrontation, which reflects the country’s readiness to respond to any scenario and maintain strategic restraint.

Al Jazeera, referring to its correspondent in Tehran, reported that according to the sources of the Iranian Foreign Ministry and Parliament, no Iranian delegation has yet left for Islamabad. In particular, it is noted that the speaker of the parliament and head of the negotiation group Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his deputy are currently in Iran. Iranian State Television (IRIB) also confirmed that official delegations and professional groups did not go to Pakistan. Thus, Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations remains uncertain.

International media report that US Vice President JD Vance will go to Islamabad for negotiations with the Iranian side on Tuesday morning. “Morning. departure from Joint Base Andrews Airport to Islamabad, Pakistan,” the Vice President’s preliminary schedule reads. The exact time of departure and arrival is not specified. Leading international mass media report that the second round of negotiations will take place, Iran will participate, but there is no official response.

Russian analyst Vladimir Yevseyev told us that the conversation about the second round of the US-Iran negotiations expected in Islamabad suggests that the parties, despite their public tough stance, are trying to find edges to prevent a big war. According to him, in this case, Pakistan’s platform serves as a neutral place where, by negotiating, Washington tries to avoid image damage during the pre-election period, and Tehran tries to weaken the pressures and unilateral demands on it. However, according to him, the US continues to follow the path of the maximum plan, which Iran rejects and tries to continue the confrontation, trying to push the US to softer positions with its restraining measures.

“The success of this dialogue depends on whether the parties will come to a balanced agreement with clear commitments or not. If the negotiations have a positive course, we will witness a temporary cooling of the tension. However, any misstep or provocation could easily derail this fragile process, turning it into a diplomatic impasse“, said the analyst.

However, as of now, according to him, the probability of success of the negotiations is very low.

The analyst believes that these developments have a fatal significance for the South Caucasus, as the region is directly affected by the situation around Iran.

«The weakening of the US-Iran confrontation can ease the political tension in the South Caucasus, especially in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the former of which closely cooperates with the West and the US President’s office, and Azerbaijan with Israel. De-escalation of tension will naturally reduce the danger of turning the region into a “second indirect front” of the conflict between the superpowers, which is extremely important for Armenia’s security. De-escalation is also important in order not to expand the geography of war– said the expert.

In his opinion, the possible agreements between Tehran and Washington can rearrange the balance of power in the matter of regional channels.

«Summing up, it should be said that Islamabad will determine not only the image of the Middle East, but also the future of the neighboring regions. For the South Caucasus, this is either an opportunity for stabilization or the beginning of new geopolitical tests. Everything depends on the extent to which the parties will manage to reach agreements that satisfy both Washington and Tehran. This is naturally a difficult task, but only this format can provide some stabilityhe said.

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