Armenia and Azerbaijan open up to trade after years of strained ties

Official statistics confirm that economic contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan has begun — modest in scale, but among the first publicly documented signs of cross-border trade in years.

Customs data from Azerbaijan shows exports to Armenia reached approximately $5.75 million (€5.1m) in the first quarter of 2026. No corresponding Armenian customs data has been publicly released for the same period, meaning the available picture reflects only one side of the ledger.

Limited flows, limited conclusions

Trade between the two countries has historically been negligible, shaped by the absence of direct economic relations and the legacy of decades of regional conflict.

The new figures do not confirm a structured or sustained bilateral trade relationship, and internationally consolidated trade databases have not yet verified reciprocal flows for the same period.

Still, some analysts see the numbers as an early signal of shifting dynamics.

Bako Kheladze, a fellow at The Irregular Warfare Initiative research programme run jointly by Princeton University and the US Military Academy at West Point, describes the figures as more than symbolic.

“This $5.57 million represents more than just an economic figure. It is a positive signal toward building bridges of trust between nations, which can ultimately bring peace and prosperity to the South Caucasus,” he said.

Kheladze added that economic interdependence has historically helped stabilise post-conflict environments.

“There are many examples of how economic relations and interdependence solve disputes and build a peaceful environment,” he continued, pointing to post-war Europe as a reference point, while cautioning that direct parallels may be premature.

A confidence-building signal

The limited exports are emerging alongside wider diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus aimed at improving communication and exploring gradual regional connectivity.

Nourhan El-Bayaa, professor at Istanbul Aydin University and consultant at the United Nations Development Programme, says the development should be seen within a broader confidence-building framework.

“The first indications of economic cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan are more than just a business development. They are a crucial step toward fostering confidence,” she said.

“One of the first and most obvious signs that political conflicts may be giving way to practical agreement is frequently economic contact,” she added.

But early signals alone are not enough.

“The emergence of cross-border economic activity is promising, but its sustainability depends on institutional trust, transparent trade mechanisms, and predictable political commitments. Without these foundations, early gains may remain symbolic rather than transformative,” El-Bayaa said.

Still a delicate moment

Experts caution that volumes remain small and require further corroboration over time.

“This is still a delicate time, even though the latest improvements are positive,” El-Bayaa said.

“A more comprehensive political settlement cannot be replaced by economic participation, but it can promote peace.”

For now, the figures point to a cautious re-emergence of economic contact — limited in scale, unconfirmed by Yerevan, but potentially significant in a region where any movement at all is news.