Orbán’s long political dominance is over. what does this mean Haya?

The next parliamentary elections in Hungary took place the other day, becoming one of the most anticipated and competitive political events in recent years in that country and on the European continent. As a result of the elections, the opposition bloc was able to register a victory, collecting about 51-53% of the votes, while the force led by Viktor Orbán, who has been in power for many years, received about 44-46% support. This result effectively ended Orbán’s long political dominance, opening a new phase in the country’s political life.

62-year-old Orban has been in power since 2010. A potential opposition candidate, 45-year-old Madyar, emerged in the current elections. Formerly a member of the Fidesz youth wing, Madyar became the leader of the Tisa party just two years ago. Citizens dissatisfied with Orban’s government point to the poor state of public infrastructure, healthcare and education, as well as the level of corruption.

Madyar, however, says he intends to fight corruption, implement “systemic changes” and introduce a new constitution. Unlike Orbán, who has built positive relations with Russia and created many problems for the EU in recent years, Madyar is also in favor of the idea of ​​removing Hungary from Russia and returning the EU member state as a reliable NATO ally. The elections were marked by high turnout and intense campaigning.

The elections held in Hungary can be considered not only as an episode of internal political reorganization, but also as an important impulse for the entire European political system. The decline or removal of the influence of Viktor Orbán, who has shaped the political face of the country for years, perhaps symbolizes the end of an entire political era. That era was characterized by enhanced executive power, Eurosceptic rhetoric, and multi-vector foreign policy experiments that often clashed with the European mainstream.

In the European context, the results of these elections are important, according to experts, because Hungary has long been a “rebellious” actor within the European Union, often inhibiting joint decisions or demanding exceptional conditions.

By the way, at the request of Azerbaijan, Orban’s government has also created difficulties regarding EU decision-making regarding Armenia. Weakening or removing Orbán could contribute to a more unified policy within the EU. However, perhaps there is no need to wait for a turnaround. a part of the Hungarian political elite continues to share the idea of ​​the priority of sovereignty in the EU.

The possible revision of Hungary’s policy towards Russia is particularly noteworthy. During the years of Orbán’s rule, Budapest maintained relatively mild and pragmatic relations with Moscow, even in the conditions of the Russia-Ukraine war. The new political situation may lead to a more cautious but not drastic anti-Russian position. it is more likely that Hungary will try to integrate into the common European line, while maintaining a certain flexibility due to energy and economic calculations.

It should be noted that these results of the Hungarian elections are important for Russia, the EU, other actors, and the South Caucasus, where Orban had especially built warm relations with the leader of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and for the sake of which Orban’s government has implemented a number of noisy anti-Armenian steps in the interest of Azerbaijan.

Years ago, Orban easily extradited to Azerbaijan Ramil Safarov, an Azerbaijani who brutally killed Armenian officer Gurgen Margaryan, who was hailed as a hero upon his return to Azerbaijan and glorified for his crime. With this move, Orban received a sharp political response from the Republic of Armenia and the Armenian people.

In 2012, RA severed diplomatic relations with Hungary, which Nikol Pashinyan’s government has already started taking steps to restore unconditionally.

From the photographs of the corridors of the European political community, one can remember warm contacts in the format of Pashinyan-Orban-Aliev-Erdogan. As we have already mentioned, in recent years, Hungary also blocked the provision of funds from the European Peace Fund to Armenia. Therefore, for Armenia, this change should be considered not only as a distant European process, it may change the position of the Hungarian state in relation to Armenia. By the way, several political actors noticed and analyzed these elections in Armenia.

Considering that elections are expected in Armenia in the near future, the Hungarian experience can offer a number of important consequences, especially from the point of view of the reproduction of the ruling forces.

• Long-term government, even if it provides stability, accumulates systemic dissatisfaction, which can be manifested not gradually, but in a drastic electoral change.
• Strengthening media and institutional control in the short-term process strengthens the government, but in the long-term it reduces the sense of legitimacy.
• Foreign policy “multi-vectoring” can be effective, but if it is perceived as value uncertainty, it can undermine trust in different directions.
• Strained relations with external partners (such as Hungary-EU) can become an important factor in the domestic political agenda.

The end of the Orbán era shows that even the most stable political systems are subject to change, and these changes are often caused not only by external pressures, but also by internal accumulated demands.

The end of Viktor Orbán’s era shows that the combination of foreign policy maneuvers, domestic control and electoral technology does not guarantee endless reproduction. In the context of the upcoming elections in Armenia, this means that the fate of the ruling power may be determined by the level of public trust.

—