Azerbaijan Slams U.S. For Siding With Armenians, Will Skip Meeting With Armenia In D.C. As Tensions Rise

Daily Wire
Nov 16 2023
By  Zach Jewell

Nov 16, 2023 

As tensions spill over in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday it would not be attending a meeting with Armenia that was set for next Monday in Washington, D.C., condemning the U.S. for taking a “one-sided approach” to the conflict between the European countries. 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been looking to ramp up peace talks between his country and Azerbaijan as the nations contend for the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The 1,700-square-mile mountainous slice of land has been inhabited by Armenians for thousands of years, but it is surrounded by Azerbaijan, a majority Muslim nation that says the region is its territory. 

Azerbaijan was angered by testimony from U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien, who spoke to the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday, Reuters reported. The country said O’Brien’s remarks were “one-sided and biased” after the assistant secretary of state discussed Azerbaijan’s take over of Nagorno-Karabakh in September, which forced more than 100,000 Armenians to flee their homes in what has escalated to ethnic cleansing of the Christian population from the oldest Christian nation in the world. 

During the hearing, O’Brien told the committee that the U.S. government has “urged Azerbaijan to ensure all ethnic Armenians who have departed Nagorno-Karabakh are guaranteed a safe, dignified, and sustainable return, should they so choose, with their rights and security guaranteed.” 

“We have also called for Azerbaijan to respect and protect the cultural heritage of the many groups who have lived in the region throughout the millennia,” O’Brien said, adding, “Our message to Armenia and the displaced has been unambiguous: The United States will support Armenia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and democratic institutions.”

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry claimed that O’Brien’s testimony left out important context in the conflict. Azerbaijan accused Armenia of refusing to respond to peace negotiations “for more than two months” and claimed Armenia was “illegally stationing” more than 10,000 troops in Nagorno-Karabakh before Azerbaijan’s takeover. The country also said U.S. officials are unwelcome in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. 

The Muslim country’s bombardment of Nagorno-Karabakh in September was preceded by a military blockade that began last December, which cut off access to food, electricity, and water from the outside. Yana Avanesyan, a doctoral researcher who is originally from Nagorno-Karabakh, told The Daily Wire last month that the religious difference between the two countries plays a major role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

“When we say Armenians, we are speaking about us being Christians,” Avanesyan told The Daily Wire. “We know they hate us so much that they will just destroy everything.” 

The U.S. has taken a clear stance in the conflict, condemning Azerbaijan for its recent actions in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

“Azerbaijan’s use of force in Nagorno-Karabakh has eroded trust and raised doubts regarding Baku’s commitment to a comprehensive peace with Armenia,” O’Brien said. “Given this new reality, the Department has made it clear to Azerbaijan that there cannot be ‘business as usual’ in our bilateral relationship. The United States has condemned Azerbaijani actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, canceled high-level bilateral meetings and engagements with Azerbaijan, and suspended plans for future events.”  



Azerbaijan rejects Armenia peace talks in US over Washington’s ‘biased remarks’

France 24
Nov 16 2023

Azerbaijan on Thursday refused to participate in normalisation talks with arch-foe Armenia that were planned in the United States this month over what it said was Washington’s “biased” position.

Baku and Yerevan have been locked in a decades-long territorial conflict over Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region, which Baku reclaimed in September after a lightning offensive against Armenian separatists.

Internationally mediated peace talks between the ex-Soviet republics have seen little progress but both countries’ leaders have said a comprehensive peace agreement could be signed by the end of the year.

“We do not consider it possible to hold the proposed meeting on the level of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington on November 20, 2023,” Baku’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

The move followed a hearing in the US House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday, where, the ministry said, Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien made “one-sided and biased remarks” about Azerbaijan.

O’Brien told the House Committee that “nothing will be normal with Azerbaijan after the events of September 19 until we see progress on the peace track.”

“We’ve cancelled a number of high-level visits, condemned (Baku’s) actions,” he added.

The Azerbaijani foreign ministry said: “Such a unilateral approach by the United States could lead to the loss of the United States’ mediation role.”

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Thursday that Yerevan’s “political will to sign, in the coming months, a peace agreement with Azerbaijan remains unwavering.”


Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev have held several rounds of talks under EU mediation.

But last month, Aliyev refused to attend a round of negotiations with Pashinyan in Spain, citing France’s “biased position.”

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had been scheduled to join EU chief Charles Michel as mediators at those talks.

So far, there has been no visible progress in EU efforts to organise a fresh round of negotiations.

(AFP)

"The enclaves may become a pretext for Baku’s next attack" – Armenian political scientist

Nov 13 2023
  • JAMnews
  • Yerevan

Consequences of the termination of negotiations

“If the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks are frozen, i.e. the process stops on both Western and Russian platforms, Azerbaijan will have a window of new opportunities for a military attack on Armenia,” political analyst Beniamin Poghosyan believes.

He warns that the Azerbaijani side may launch military actions not only on the pretext of obtaining the so-called “Zangezur corridor”, i.e. a road uncontrolled by Armenia to connect with Nakhichevan, but also “enclaves”. In his opinion, this is a more realistic scenario of Baku’s actions, for which the Azerbaijani authorities are now preparing grounds.


  • “We expect cooperation with EU in security sphere” – Armenian Security Council Secretary
  • “Armenia was only reacting to challenges”: on the situation after the 2020 war
  • “Apart from Armenia, no one needs the Crossroads of Peace.” Opinion from Yerevan

Given the weather conditions and the terrain, the political analyst suggests that military action is unlikely in winter. They could start in spring, and the reason for them could be, in Baku’s terminology, “Armenian-occupied villages or enclaves”.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly publicly stated that Armenia recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity of 86,600 square kilometers. But he has not received reciprocal recognition by Azerbaijan of Armenia’s territorial integrity. At a press conference organized in late May, Pashinyan also stated that Armenia’s 29,800 square kilometers of territorial integrity does not include the village of Tigranashen in Ararat province and six villages in Tavush province.

And now, according to the political analyst, it is important to understand whether the enclaves fall within the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, which the Armenian prime minister has recognized:

“If Armenia recognizes that there is a territory under its control that it considers part of Azerbaijan, I am afraid that we may have the same situation here as on September 19, 2023 [referring to the military actions of the Azerbaijani army on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, after which the entire Armenian population moved to Armenia].”

Poghosyan explains that Azerbaijan could resort to military action and present it as “liberating its territories, exercising the right to self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter.”

“I don’t rule out that we will have a situation where the Russian president will say, ‘What should I do?’ Armenia has said that these enclaves are Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan is returning its territories. And there will be no special reaction from the West,” he said.

Areg Kochinyan proposes to engage an American private military company to solve Armenia’s security problems until the completion of defense reforms

Poghosyan emphasizes that Baku has already received the maximum from its Western partners, “namely, it conducted ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh with zero reaction to it from the West”. In addition, within the framework of the Western negotiating platform, the Azerbaijani side achieved

  • “an agreement to recognize territorial integrity within the Soviet administrative boundaries,
  • Armenia’s recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, as well as the rejection of the demand for autonomy”

He recalls that Armenia made concessions and “lowered the bar on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh”, expecting to receive guarantees of rights and security of Armenians of the unrecognized republic, but received nothing. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan used the concessions of the Armenian side as a “legitimate basis for attacking Artsakh”.

According to the analyst, Baku has nothing more to gain from the Western platform, so it is “saying goodbye to it and trying to return to the Russian negotiating platform”.

Military expert Leonid Nersisyan believes that “Baku will not occupy, for example, the southern region of Armenia, Syunik, but will resort to a new escalation”

The analyst says that Armenia is disappointed with the Western platform, as it did not get anything there, but also does not want to return to the Russian platform. He notes that given strained Armenian-Russian relations, Azerbaijan has “started flirting” with Russia and Iran:

“Azerbaijan is trying to make Armenia look like a state that is constantly trying to ensure the presence of ‘enemy forces’ here for Russia and Iran — the EU and the US.”

In addition, Baku supports the Russian and Iranian position that regional problems should be solved by regional countries and the presence of extra-regional powers only harms the process of normalization of relations.

“If we continue to avoid the Russian platform, Azerbaijan will further toughen this rhetoric of its, saying to Russia and Iran: look, Armenia wants to bring your enemies to the South Caucasus,” he said.

In this case, according to the political analyst, there will be “additional problems not only in Armenian-Russian, but also in Armenian-Iranian relations, which is not in Armenia’s interests.”


IRNA to expand media cooperation with Armenia: CEO

IRNA – Iran
Nov 15 2023

Tehran, IRNA- Managing director of the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) Ali Naderi has held a meeting with Armenian Ambassador to Tehran Arsen Avagyan to explore ways to expand media cooperation between Iran and Armenia.

During the meeting at IRNA’s headquarters in Tehran on Wednesday, Avagyan expressed his country's interest in developing media cooperation with Iran, especially IRNA as the official news agency of the Islamic Republic.

The ambassador said that increased media cooperation between the two countries would lead to a better understanding between the Iranian and Armenian people.

He considered the exchange of media and news delegations between Iran and Armenia as an effective step in strengthening the communication between the two nations.

At the meeting, Naderi also pointed to the friendly ties between Iran and Armenia and said, “We are always ready to expand relations in all areas.”

He also said that IRNA’s media policy toward neighboring countries reflects Iran’s foreign policy of developing closer ties with regional countries.

IRNA and the Armenian News Agency signed a memorandum of understanding in 2017 to increase media interactions.

https://en.irna.ir/news/85292607/IRNA-to-expand-media-cooperation-with-Armenia-CEO

Turkish Press: Convicted killer of Turkish-Armenian journalist released on parole

Turkish Minute
Nov 15 2023

Ogün Samast, the convicted murderer of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, was released on parole on Wednesday.

The 52-year-old Dink, editor-in-chief of the Turkish-Armenian bilingual Agos weekly, was shot dead with two bullets to the head outside the newspaper’s headquarters in central İstanbul on Jan. 19, 2007 by Samast, then a-17-year-old jobless high school dropout.

Samast was arrested the following day.

After serving 16 years, 10 months, Samast was released from Turkey’s western Bolu province’s F Type Prison.

In June Turkey’s Supreme Court of Appeals upheld certain acquittals while overturning other verdicts in the trial of 76 defendants, primarily public officials, in connection with Dink’s assassination.

The verdict handed down on March 26, 2021 by the İstanbul 14th High Criminal Court included 33 acquittals and 27 convictions.

Engin Dinç, former director of the Trabzon police intelligence unit; Reşat Altay, former Trabzon police chief; and Ahmet İlhan Güler, former director of the İstanbul intelligence unit, were acquitted of “negligent homicide.”

Ramazan Akyürek and Ali Fuat Yılmazer, two of the jailed defendants and former police chiefs, were given aggravated life sentences by the Turkish court for “premeditated murder,” while four defendants, including former gendarmerie members Muharrem Demirkale and Yavuz Karakaya, received life sentences.

Samast had confessed to the murder and was sentenced to almost 23 years in prison in 2011.

Ali Öz, a former gendarmerie commander of the Black Sea region of Trabzon, where the gunman came from, was sentenced to 28 years in prison on charges of “premeditated murder” and “forgery of official documents.”

The İstanbul 14th High Criminal Court in 2021 separated the files of 13 fugitive suspects, including Fethullah Gülen, on the grounds that their defense statements were not delivered, also ruling that Dink’s murder was committed “in line with the objectives of FETÖ” – a derogatory term used by the Turkish government to refer to the faith-based movement inspired by Gülen as a terrorist organization.

For years, prosecutors have looked into alleged links between the suspects and Gülen, who is accused of masterminding a failed coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 2016, although he strongly denies the charges.

The Turkish government’s ongoing crackdown on the Gülen movement was launched following corruption investigations in late 2013 that implicated Erdoğan’s close circle and intensified in the aftermath of the failed coup on July 15, 2016.

Armenia receives shipment of French armored vehicles through Georgia

eurasianet
Nov 16 2023
Heydar Isayev Nov 16, 2023

Armenia has received its first batch of armored vehicles from France via Georgia. 

Azerbaijan is ratcheting up its rhetoric against France over Paris' growing military support to its archrival but so far has refrained from criticizing Georgia for facilitating the first delivery of French hardware.

On November 12, Azerbaijani Defense Ministry-aligned Caliber.az shared images purporting to show at least 20 Bastion armored personnel carriers arriving at the Poti Port, on Georgia's Black Sea coast. 

APM Terminals, which operates the Poti Port, meanwhile, confirmed on November 14 that a "specific cargo" was received from France and sent on to Armenia. "In the absence of clear instructions [to the contrary] from the Georgian government and any restrictions from international regulators, APM Terminals Poti, as a multipurpose port in Georgia and the region, had no right to reject without basis a cargo that is not under sanctions," the company told RFE/RL.

Georgian Foreign Minister Ilia Darchiashvili gave his own confirmation of the arms transit in an interview with Georgian Public TV on November 14. 

He referred to Armenia and Azerbaijan as both "brotherly and friendly" nations and said that both have the right to use Georgian territory for transit "on equal terms." 

"All countries have the right to have defense forces and all countries have the right to acquire conventional hardware and weapons permitted under international agreements. Georgia's position is that both countries should be allowed to use our country for transit."

Armenia's Defense Ministry, for its part, neither confirmed nor denied the transfer of the vehicles. 

Georgia's role in the arms transfer was noted in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, but not at the official level. 

"What is most important is that Georgia is not hindering the logistics, despite [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev's attempts to put pressure on Tbilisi," Leonid Nersisyan, Armenian military analyst, wrote on X. 

An editorial on Minval.az, a pro-Azerbaijani government analysis website, called the transfer a "stab in the back" by Georgia against its strategic partner Azerbaijan. The commentary said that Azerbaijani energy supplies, as well as pipelines carrying Azerbaijani oil and gas through Georgia, were crucial to Georgia's security and economic well-being, and lamented that now, the leadership in Tbilisi has "chosen to curry favor with France at the expense of Azerbaijan's interests."

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, condemned France over the hardware transfer but made no mention of Georgia. 

"Against the backdrop of smearing campaigns and destructive actions by France against Azerbaijan in the region, these steps, which adds to the militarization policy of Armenia, attests to the fact of France's erroneous interests in the region," the English version of the statement read. "Armenia and France should end armament and militarization policy in the region, and finally understand that there is no alternative to peace and stability in the region."

The Armenian and French defense ministers signed deals on October 23 under which Armenia will purchase radar systems and other equipment, including anti-aircraft systems, from French manufacturers, and France will help train and reform the Armenian armed forces. 

"France and the French people are by our side, a fact that deserves our highest appreciation," Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan said at the signing of the deal.

The delivery of French APCs was not mentioned in initial official statements about that deal.

Azerbaijan has long been critical of France over its pro-Armenian stance in the Karabakh conflict, especially during the peace process that followed the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Now that Azerbaijan largely resolved the Karabakh conflict in its own favor, it still opposes France's involvement in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations as a mediator. 

In early October, President Aliyev refused to attend a meeting in Spain where he was scheduled to meet the Armenian Prime Minister, citing the exclusion of Turkey, Azerbaijan's closest ally, from the would-be multilateral talks, and the inclusion of France. 

Azerbaijan has recently begun using its chairmanship of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) to position itself as a global leader in the fight against what it calls French "neocolonialism."

Baku recently hosted a neocolonialism conference that featured invitees from independence movements in New Caledonia, Corsica, French Polynesia and French Guiana. 

Hikmat Hajiyev, Aliyev's senior foreign policy advisor, told the conference that Azerbaijan will help French overseas territories to continue with their "struggle, and political freedom ambitions."

"We will raise the opinions expressed here at the level of the UN and other international organizations. Our country was deprived of independence for many years. As a state, we know what occupation is," he said. 

Heydar Isayev is a journalist from Baku.

THE HAGUE – The International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivers an Order in the case Armenia v. Azerbaijan

The United Nations
Nov 16 2023

Categories
Meetings & Events / International Court of Justice / Cases / 180 – Armenia v. Azerbaijan
Production Date
17 Nov 2023
Asset Language
English
French
Broadcasting UN Entity
INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE – ICJ
Summary
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivers an Order in the case concerning Application of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (Armenia v. Azerbaijan).
Description

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), the principal judicial organ of the UN, delivers, on Friday , its Order on the request for the indication of provisional measures submitted by the Republic of Armenia on 28 September 2023 in the case concerning Application of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (Armenia v. Azerbaijan), at the Peace Palace in The Hague, the seat of the Court. Session held under the presidency of Judge Joan E. Donoghue, President of the Court.

Contact :

Ms Monique Lagerman, Head of Information Department (+31 (0)70 302 2336)

Ms Joanne Moore, Information Officer (+31 (0)70 302 2337)

Mr Avo Sevag Garabet, Associate Information Officer (+31 (0)70 302 2394)

Internet | Website : www.icj-cij.org

Twitter: www.twitter.com/CIJ_ICJ

LinkedIn: International Court of Justice (ICJ)


Armenian American Museum Takes Disney Hall

Nov 16 2023


The Armenian American Museum hosted a reception at Walt Disney Concert Hall in collaboration with the Los Angeles Philharmonic for the orchestra’s presentation of “Dudamel Leads Khachaturian,” featuring composer Aram Khachaturian’s internationally acclaimed and timeless musical compositions.
“It has been a wonderful evening of arts, culture and community on a grand stage,” said board of governors member Margaret Mgrublian in her welcoming remarks. “The event serves as a reminder of how iconic venues such as the Walt Disney Concert Hall and soon-to-be Armenian American Museum play an important role in the work of cultural preservation and celebration.”
The Los Angeles Philharmonic is an internationally renowned orchestra that harnesses the transformative power of live music to build community, foster intellectual and artistic growth, and nurture the creative spirit. During the moving performance, Director Gustavo Dudamel led an exploration of Aram Khachaturian’s distinct voice first with a suite from his ballet Spartacus featuring the stirring Adagio followed by the intense and heroic Piano Concerto with the help of Jean-Yves Thibaudet.
The museum hosted a special reception at the Walt Disney Concert Hall Founders Room following the musical performance. Attendees included Naming Opportunities, Benefactors, and Legacy Council donors of the museum. The event was sponsored by longtime supporters of the museum.
“We are excited to share that the Armenian American Museum will be rising to the horizon early next year with the installation of the museum’s structural steel,” said Executive Chairman Berdj Karapetian, which prompted a roaring applause. “We are grateful to our generous donors for supporting the community’s vision for a landmark center that will be our gift to future generations.”
The Armenian American Museum is a world-class educational and cultural center that is currently under construction in the museum campus at Glendale Central Park. The first phase of construction featuring the museum parking garage and building foundation has been completed. The second phase of construction features the two-level 50,820-square-foot museum superstructure. The museum will offer a wide range of public programming through the Permanent Exhibition, Temporary Exhibitions, Auditorium, Learning Center, Demonstration Kitchen, Archives Center and more.
To learn more about the museum project, visit ArmenianAmericanMuseum.org.

https://glendalenewspress.outlooknewspapers.com/2023/11/16/armenian-american-museum-takes-disney-hall/

Azerbaijan seeks peace & normalised bilateral relations with Armenia, says Presidential aide Hikmat Hajiyev

Nov 16 2023

The region had been occupied by Armenian forces since 1991, during which it styled itself as a de facto independent state, the Republic of Artsakh,

Mr Hajiyev said, “Armenia’s illegal regime has now been disarmed and taken out from the territory of Azerbaijan. 

“This means that there are now no obstacles for a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

“We think that this is a historical opportunity to turn the chapter of animosity and hostility between two countries and to build sustainable peace based on the five fundamental principles that Azerbaijan suggested to Armenian side. 

“Then I think that Azerbaijan has also established model of resolution of one of the most prolonged conflicts on the wider map of Eurasia.” 

He continued “The OSCE has failed to resolve the conflict, although the Karabakh conflict has been one of the issues facing the OSCE since the very establishment of this institution.

“The Minsk Group has failed: the Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship Institute has failed because the mission of that institution was to maintain and continue the occupation of Armenia against Azerbaijan. 

“This chapter of the military occupation and injustice is now over.  Therefore, Azerbaijan’s agenda is now about peace and to normalise bilateral relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

“But any peace engagement requires two sides to play their role, and Armenia should also perform her role and demonstrate positivity and good will. We have already submitted to the Armenian side fifth revised version of the peace treaty, but it takes more than two months since they have not responded yet. 

“Now new realities have emerged in our region. These new realities are based on legality and legitimacy.”

He went on to discuss Azerbaijan’s intentions in its future relationship with Armenia. “We would like to build new regional security architecture in the region, based on the principles of justice, recognising one another’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and ceasing all territorial claims on one another. 

“Also, we support bilateral engagement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. I think that we should come to the conclusion of peace. And then I think that other partners can also support that agreement.” 

He emphasised, “First of all, peace lies and regional security lies not in Brussels, not in Paris, not in Washington, or Moscow or somewhere else. Peace lies in the region itself.”

Concerning the attitudes of the EU institutions towards Azerbaijan during the years of the so-called frozen conflict he referred to feelings of Azerbaijanophobia or Islamophobia, particularly in certain quarters of the European Parliament.

“That’s also not that helpful for the EU’s ambitions or interests in the regional resources,” Mr  Hajiyev said. “And also we have taken note of a recent unnecessary statement of the European Council putting unnecessary criticism against Azerbaijan… European institutions as such never were just with regard to Azerbaijan when Azerbaijan’s territories were under occupation.

“My question is, why? And for so many years, there was one attitude for separatist entities in Georgia, in Moldova, and in Ukraine, but there was some other attitude towards Azerbaijan.”

He then pointed out that “some EU member countries, like France, have started a militarisation program in Armenia. 

“First, we don’t think that any militarisation program is helpful. 

“Armenia doesn’t need a militarisation program. Armenia needs a peaceful program to prepare Armenian peace for its neighbouring countries. So I think that such militarisation programs are detrimental.” 

He referred to the fact that missile-capable military armed personnel carriers are being supplied by France to Armenia. 

It has also been reported that Armenia is to purchase “Mistral” short-range surface-to-air missiles and three radar systems from France.

“We have always advised the member states, such as France, first, don’t support separatism in Azerbaijan’s territories. Second, don’t send unnecessary messages of supporting revanchism in Armenia, and also stop presenting geopolitical unnecessary games in our region. Unfortunately, these are the facts.”

He then stated however, “We think that this is a historical opportunity and a historical momentum, and that appropriate European institutions should also be part of the solution, not the problem, to advance a peaceful agenda in the region of the social crisis.”


ANALYSIS: Armenia and Kazakhstan Reveal Cracks in Russian-Led Regional Blocs

Kyiv Post, Ukraine
Nov 16 2023



Armenia’s snubbing of Moscow-led summits combined with Kazakhstan’s leader’s behavior during President Putin’s recent visit may indicate a fundamental change in the existing power dynamic.

By Steve Brown

Russia has tried to maintain control of many of its former Soviet republics through two bodies that are analogous to similar bodies in the West.

The Russian-led Collective Treaty Security Organization (CTSO) is a military alliance formalized in 2002, that attempts to be Russia’s equivalent to NATO with, currently, six members Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, along with Armenia and Belarus.

In an echo of NATO’s Article 5 treaty, CSTO’s Article 4 states: “If one of the Member States undergoes aggression, it will be considered by the Member States as aggression to all the Member States of this Treaty… all the other Member States at the request of this Member State shall provide the latter with the necessary help, including military… in accordance with the right to collective defense pursuant to article 51 of the UN Charter.”

Although it has been in existence for over 20 years, the Article has only been used once when a small force deployed to Kazakhstan in January 2022 to deal with political unrest that Moscow categorized as a coup attempt backed by “foreign terrorists.”

Recent events may be the first signs of the cracks appearing in Russia’s hold over their southern partners.

The other body that Russia has used to retain its influence is the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) a quasi-equivalent of the European Union that calls itself a regional intergovernmental organization.

It was formed in 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union ostensibly to assist its members’ transition into free democratic nations although, the cynic would say it was an attempt by Russia to keep some semblance of control over its former vassal states.

The stated aims of the organization are: to facilitate and strengthen cooperation in the political, economic, ecological, humanitarian, cultural, and other fields among its member states, who are currently: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine.

Although Ukraine ceased active participation in the statutory bodies of the CIS in 2018 in protest at Russia’s annexation of Crimea and continued aggression in the Donbas it has never formally withdrawn from the CIS Free Trade Area, even following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion.

Recent strains show in the Armenian-Russian relationship

Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, announced on Tuesday that he would not participate in the Nov. 23 CSTO meeting in Minsk, Belarus. Commentators see this as another example of the deteriorating relationship between Yerevan and Moscow.

In 2020 the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Armenian separatist region Nagorno-Karabakh ended with a Moscow-brokered peace plan that included deployment of a Russian peacekeeping force. Armenia became unhappy with the peacekeepers’ reluctance to fulfil their mandate, which was exacerbated by the Kremlin’s refusal to intervene during this year’s outbreak of hostilities.

Pashinyan in turn angered Russia by canceling its hosting of the annual CSTO military exercises, but later held joint exercises with US forces, declined to attend a meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Bishkek where Putin made his first trip outside Russia since being indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC) after which Armenia then voted to join the ICC.

According to TASS, Russia’s state media outlet, the former defense minister and head of Armenia’s opposition party, Seyran Ohanyan, accused Pashinyan of threatening the country’s security through this rebuff of Moscow:

“As threats surround us in a complicated military and political situation, not taking part in CSTO events puts Armenia’s security at further risk. We are a member of this alliance. In many cases, Armenian authorities played a part in the deterioration of relations.”

And the Russian-Kazakhstan relationship?

On Nov. 9 at what was called a “routine bi-lateral” meeting between the leaders of Kazakhstan and Russia, Putin was unable, not for the first time, to correctly pronounce Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s name on several occasions. Perhaps in payback for that and also, in what some commentators have categorized as a power move, gave his closing speech in Kazakh rather than the usual Russian, much to the confusion of the visiting Moscow delegation.

Kazakhstan had earlier hosted a visit by French President Emanuel Macron, as part of his tour of Central Asia, during which deals were agreed in relation to oil and rare earth metals that Kazakhstan has in abundance, as well as pharmaceuticals and aerospace contracts.

With sanctions imposed on Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine having resulted in a major reduction in Russian oil exports to the EU, Kazakhstan is now the EU’s third-largest supplier behind Norway and the US.

At a meeting with President Tokayev, Macron thanked him for not siding with Moscow in its war on Ukraine and commented:

“I don’t underestimate by any means the geopolitical difficulties, the pressures… that some may be putting on you… France values the path you are following for your country, refusing to be a vassal of any power and seeking to build numerous and balanced relations with different countries.”

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, where Macron traveled on his next visit, have refused to recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories and have pledged to abide by Western sanctions against Moscow.

"The European Union isn’t hiding its intentions to restrain Russia in every possible way and push it out of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.” – Sergei Lavrov

A BBC report quoted the Kazakh political analyst Dosym Satpayev, who said the war in Ukraine had resulted in a diminishing of Russian influence in the region. “There is less military co-operation, the perception of Russia since the war has worsened. Central Asian governments are not talking openly about it – but it is happening.”

Russia in turn has voiced concern at the West’s growing commercial and diplomatic activity in the former Soviet nations of central Asia.

Asked for his views on Macron’s visit and comments, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Kazakhstan, as a sovereign state, was free to develop ties with any countries, but emphasized his view that Moscow valued its relations with Kazakhstan “very highly.” He then told reporters: “In our turn, we have historical ties, ties of strategic partnership with Kazakhstan, they are our allies and our interests are united in many international bodies.”

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, took a less conciliatory line. In an interview broadcast on Sunday, he accused the European Union of attempting to drive Russia out of Central Asia. He said the West was trying to pull Russia’s “neighbors, friends and allies” away from it.

“The European Union isn’t hiding its intentions to restrain [Russia] in every possible way and push it out of Central Asia and the South Caucasus,” he said. “These attempts are futile. We have been historically present there and are not going to disappear.”

Nevertheless, a number of commentators suggest these recent events may be the first signs of the cracks appearing in Russia’s hold over their southern partners.

It is not only the EU nations that are focusing on an area they have long neglected. China is becoming ever more active in Central Asia with its “Belt and Road” project. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also shown growing interest in the region.