Month: September 2020

                                        Monday, 

Armenia Condemns ‘Turkey’s Involvement’ In Karabakh Fighting


Armenia - The Armenian Foreign Ministry building, Yerevan.

Armenia accused Turkey on Monday of being directly involved in continuing 
hostilities along the Armenian-Azerbaijani “line of contact” around 
Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Armenian Foreign Ministry said that through its “direct presence on the 
ground” Ankara is seeking to help Azerbaijan end the Karabakh conflict by force.

“Turkish military specialists are fighting side by side with Azerbaijan, using 
Turkish-manufactured weapons, including UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and 
warplanes,” the ministry charged in a statement.

“According to credible sources, Turkey is recruiting and transporting foreign 
terrorist fighters to Azerbaijan,” it said, referring to recent reports, 
including by the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, about the 
recruitment of pro-Turkish Syrian rebels mostly affiliated with jihadi groups. 
Azerbaijan has denied those reports.

“The situation on the ground clearly indicates that the people of Artsakh 
(Karabakh) are fighting against the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance. Turkey, which 
a century ago annihilated the Armenian people in their historical homeland and 
still justifies that crime, now supports Azerbaijan by all possible means to 
carry out the same genocidal acts in the South Caucasus,” added the statement.

Ara Harutiunian, Karabakh’s president, likewise claimed on Sunday that Turkish 
F-16 fighter jets, helicopters and attack drones are attacking military and 
civilian targets in Karabakh.

In recent months Ankara has stepped up its long-standing support for Azerbaijan 
in the Karabakh conflict. It promised greater military assistance to Baku 
following last July’s deadly skirmishes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

Turkish and Azerbaijani troops held joint exercises in various parts of 
Azerbaijan in August. The drills featured Turkish F-16 jets and combat 
helicopters.


Azerbaijan -- Azeri President Ilham Aliyev receives prayer beads from his 
Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan in Baku, February 25, 2020

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan again blamed Armenia for the heavy 
fighting in Karabakh, which broke out on Sunday, and demanded an end to 
“Armenian occupation” of the disputed territory later on Monday.

“The time has come for the crisis in the region that started with the occupation 
of Nagorno-Karabakh to be put to an end,” he said in a speech.

Erdogan also lambasted the United States, Russia and France for failing to 
broker a solution to the Karabakh after more than two decades of 
Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks mediated by them. “Now Azerbaijan must take 
matters into its own hands,” he said.

The Armenian Foreign Ministry expressed confidence that the Azerbaijani 
“aggression” will end in failure.

Yerevan says that the unusually deadly clashes in Karabakh resulted from a 
large-scale Azerbaijani offensive. Baku maintains, however, that its army went 
on a “counteroffensive” in response to Armenian shelling of Azerbaijani villages 
located close to the “line of contact.”



Russia Vows To ‘Seek Peace’ In Karabakh

        • Armen Koloyan

Sergei Naryshkin, Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service

Russia on Monday continued to press for an immediate end to large-scale 
hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and pledged to seek a peaceful solution to the 
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict “in every possible way.”
“Unfortunately, there are casualties and the parties are using heavy weapons as 
well,” Sergei Naryshkin, the chief of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, 
told reporters in Moscow.

“We see that this issue can be resolved only with political-diplomatic methods, 
and Russia will always seek peace in every possible way,” Naryshkin said, 
according to the RIA Novosti news agency.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov telephoned his Armenian and Azerbaijani 
counterparts hours after the outbreak of heavy fighting around Karabakh early on 
Sunday. He called for a quick end to the fighting involving thousands of troops, 
tanks, heavy artillery and attack drones.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian 
also discussed the most serious escalation of the Karabakh conflict in years -- 
and possibly decades -- in a phone call.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, urged the conflicting parties on Monday to 
display “maximum restraint” and avoid a “further undesirable escalation of the 
situation.” The TASS news agency quoted him as saying that Putin will also speak 
with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev “if need be.”

Russia, which has close political, military and economic ties with Armenia, has 
not blamed any of the parties for the hostilities.

The United States and the European Union have reacted to the Karabakh fighting 
in a similar fashion.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun also spoke with Armenia’s and 
Azerbaijan’s foreign ministers by phone. According to the U.S. State Department, 
he urged both sides to “cease hostilities immediately” and avoid “actions that 
further raise tensions on the ground.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said later on Sunday that Washington is closely 
monitoring the developments in the Karabakh conflict zone.

“We have a lot of good relationships in that area,” Trump told reporters. “We’ll 
see if we can stop [the hostilities.]”



Deadly Fighting Rages On In Karabakh


Nagorno-Karabakh -- A screenshot of Karabakh Armenian army video of fighting 
with Azerbaijani forces, September 27, 2020.

Heavy fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces continued in 
Nagorno-Karabakh for the second consecutive day on Monday despite international 
calls for an immediate ceasefire.

Karabakh’s Armenian-backed army reported “intensive” overnight hostilities at 
various sections of the Armenian-Azerbaijani “line of contact” around Karabakh. 
It said its troops recaptured “a number of positions” that were seized by 
Azerbaijani forces following the outbreak of the hostilities early on Sunday.

According to a spokeswoman for Armenia’s Defense Ministry, Shushan Stepanian, 
the Azerbaijani army “resumed offensive operations” there on Monday morning, 
using tanks and heavy artillery. “Armenian units are confidently dealing with 
Azerbaijani army attacks,” she wrote on Facebook.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said, meanwhile, that its frontline troops are 
“continuing their counteroffensive” after seizing several hills near a village 
in northeastern Karabakh.

Azerbaijani news agencies also reported that the ministry accused the Armenian 
side of shelling the nearby Azerbaijani town of Terter and threatened to take 
“adequate retaliatory measures.”

The Karabakh Armenian military said that 31 of its soldiers died and more than 
100 others were wounded in Sunday’s clashes.

Baku did not release any casualty numbers as of Monday morning. Stepanian said 
that “several dozen” bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers killed in action are lying 
on the recaptured Karabakh Armenian positions.

The conflicting parties blame each for the worst flare-up of violence in the 
Karabakh conflict zone since 2016. The Armenian side says that it is the result 
of a large-scale Azerbaijani offensive. Baku insists, however, that its army 
went on a “counteroffensive” in response to Armenian shelling of Azerbaijani 
villages located close to the “line of contact.”

Russia, the United States, the European Union as well as Iran on Sunday 
expressed serious concern over the escalation and called for an immediate end to 
the hostilities. Top U.S. and Russian diplomats spoke with the Armenian and 
Azerbaijani foreign ministers by phone in a bid to ease the tensions.



U.S. ‘Alarmed’ By Karabakh Hostilities


U.S. -- U.S. State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus stands at the lectern 
during a press conference at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, June 
10, 2019

The United States on Sunday called for an immediate halt to deadly hostilities 
in Nagorno-Karabakh and warned “external parties” against participating in them.

“The United States condemns in the strongest terms this escalation of violence,” 
Morgan Ortagus, the spokeswoman for the U.S. State Department, said in a 
statement.

She said U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun phoned Armenia’s and 
Azerbaijan’s foreign ministers “to urge both sides to cease hostilities 
immediately, to use the existing direct communication links between them to 
avoid further escalation, and to avoid unhelpful rhetoric and actions that 
further raise tensions on the ground.”

“The United States believes participation in the escalating violence by external 
parties would be deeply unhelpful and only exacerbate regional tensions,” added 
Ortagus.

It was not clear if she referred to Turkey, which has stepped up diplomatic and 
military support for Azerbaijan in recent months.

Ortagus also urged Baku and Yerevan to “return to substantive negotiations as 
soon as possible.” “As a Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, the United States 
remains committed to helping the sides achieve a peaceful and sustainable 
settlement to the conflict,” she said.

The two other Minsk Group co-chairs, Russia and France, also voiced concern at 
the most large-scale fighting in the Karabakh conflict zone in years. Similar 
statements were issued by the European Union.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with his Armenian and Azerbaijani 
counterparts by phone earlier on Sunday.


Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2020 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.

 

Asia Times


by Richard Giragosian


Russia, Turkey and Iran all have big vested interests in the budding
armed conflict over Nagorno Karabakh


YEREVAN – Azerbaijan’s military offensive on the Armenia-controlled
Nagorno Karabakh enclave threatens to spiral quickly into a wider
regional conflict, one that pits Russia and Turkey in a volatile proxy
theater.

With each powerful regional actor aligned on opposed sides of the
fighting, the deeper contest between Moscow and Ankara is now set to
trigger what some analysts foresee as a monumental “clash of the
titans.”

As Azerbaijan’s offensive enters a third day, Karabakh Armenian forces
are engaged in an intense effort to defend territory and prevent any
breakthrough by the Azerbaijani side.

Armenia has reported more than 80 of their troops killed; Azerbaijan
has yet to release any official death toll for its soldiers. The UN
Security Council was set to meet on Tuesday for emergency talks on
Karabakh behind closed doors, diplomats told AFP.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was monitoring the
situation closely and that the current priority was to “stop the
hostilities, not to deal with who is right and who is wrong.”

Tehran said it was ready “to use all of its capacities to establish a
ceasefire and start talks between the two sides,” with foreign
ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh calling for “an immediate end to
the conflict.”

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded Armenia end its
“occupation” of Karabakh, whose ethnic Armenians declared a breakaway
republic following a war for autonomy in 1991.

“The time has come for the crisis in the region that started with the
occupation of Nagorno Karabakh to be put to an end,” Erdogan said.
“Now Azerbaijan must take matters into its own hands.”

Amid this dynamic situation, the stage is now set for a heated
competition between regional rivals.

The Karabakh triangle

The South Caucasus has long been a region of contest with a history of
submission and subjugation by larger powers. Over the centuries, the
Persians, Ottoman and Russian empires have all fought for conquest and
control of the area.

This geographic vulnerability in recent days was exposed once again,
as the renewed fighting over Karabakh invited a return of regional
power competition.

The modern replication of this geopolitical contest is between Russia
and Turkey, with Iran as an important yet understated and underrated
third party power. Each of these three regional players has vested
interests and valuable influence in the South Caucasus.

But with this latest outbreak of serious fighting, the risk of
outright war has likely sharpened their attention. From this
perspective of a “Karabakh triangle,” the geometry of the coming clash
reveals a complex and looming struggle for dominance.

Currently, Russia, Turkey and Iran remain vigilant and are reportedly
closely following events as they unfold on the battlefield. Of the
three, Turkey is the most active, however. Turkey’s support of its
Azerbaijan ally increased significantly several months earlier.

This acceleration in Turkish activity is mainly driven by a desire to
regain its former role as the leading military patron of Azerbaijan,
an objective that has only intensified in the wake of Turkish
frustration of having been supplanted by Russia and Israel in arms
sales to Azerbaijan.

By providing military training and equipment to their Azerbaijani
partner, Turkey has encouraged Azerbaijan to adopt a more assertive
and even aggressive posture vis-a-vis Armenia.

Recent military exercises under Turkish tutelage have fostered more
assertiveness within the Azerbaijani officer corps, which in turn has
arguably engendered a considerable degree of over-confidence among
rank and file soldiers.

Due to insufficient and inadequate unit cohesion, discipline and basic
training, the overall combat readiness of ordinary Azerbaijani
military forces is low.

Ironically, from the Turkish perspective, such military need and
necessity is preferred, as it only deepens the Azerbaijani military’s
dependence on Turkish assistance and guidance.

On a broader level, Turkey has also benefited from an apparent vacuum,
as Russian military overtures to Azerbaijan have been strictly limited
to large and expensive arms deals and the procurement of modern
offensive weapons systems.

Although this has been somewhat supplemented in recent years by a
Russian effort at cultivating ties to the senior ranks, the lack of
ties to lower levels such as unit commanders and mid-level officers
has provided Turkish military advisers and instructors with a clear
advantage.

The Russian edge

The second angle of this Karabakh triangle, Russia, holds distinct
advantages that surpass Turkish influence. Despite trepidation over
Russian ambitions in the region, Azerbaijan now sees Russia as the one
pivotal player in the Karabakh conflict.

This perception stems from several factors. First, Azerbaijan
recognizes that Moscow has seized the diplomatic initiative in the
Karabakh peace process, and that fellow mediators France and the US
have grudgingly ceded the diplomatic lead to Russia.

A second advantage for Russia is that not only does Armenia have no
real security alternative to Russia, but the greater the tension and
the more serious the threat from the fighting makes Armenia even more
dependent on Russian security promises.

Despite constant and consistent Russian pressure on the Armenian
government, there is a transactional nature to Armenian relations with
Russia, with Yerevan forced to bargain with Moscow often from a
position of weakness rather than strength.

Third, as demonstrated in earlier rounds of fighting, most notable in
April 2016, only Russia responded to renewed hostilities quickly and
effectively. This is also evident in the reality that the only
ceasefire agreements reached in the Karabakh conflict were brokered
with Russian involvement.

Over the longer term as well, Russia will be essential for any
eventual negotiated resolution to the Karabakh conflict. Moreover,
Russia will likely be the only regional actor capable of enforcing
peace and helping to ensure a durable “day after” any potential peace
deal.

Persian power

Looking to the future and beyond Turkey’s power projection and
Russia’s strategic advantages, Iran is the overlooked third element of
the Karabakh triangle. It is not only disingenuous to underestimate
Iran as a true rival regional actor, it is also dangerous.

More specifically, in the wake of the failure of Iran’s anticipated
westward turn after it’s now dead nuclear deal, Iran is now preparing
to return to the South Caucasus region.

But Iran’s underlying tension with the West will be less of a driver
for Iran in the South Caucasus, unlike Iraq and Syria for two notable
examples.

Rather, Iran’s looming return as a regional actor in the South
Caucasus will be motivated by a desire in Tehran to push back against
two key rivals and perceived interlopers: Russia and Turkey. This will
also be based on an appeal to Shiite Islam, seeking to both bully and
befriend Azerbaijan as a fellow Shiite state.

Moreover, Tehran will also be careful not to directly confront or
challenge either Ankara or Moscow, but rather will likely steadily
undermine and rely on subterfuge to erode its rivals’ positions in the
region.

In this regard, Iran will leverage its already sound relations with
its only stable and friendly neighbor, Armenia, and resist any
challenge from Azerbaijan as the leading Shiite “spokes-state” and
only theological Shiite state.

Against that backdrop, the next stage of fighting over Karabakh will
likely usher in a new and even more unpredictable period of
instability and insecurity in what some foresee as a coming clash of
regional titans.


 

Asia Times


By Kaveh Afrasiabi
      

Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes have potential grave implications for
neighboring Iran if they escalate into a big power proxy war

After years of an inconclusive cease-fire punctured with occasional
flare-ups, the Azerbaijan-Armenia stand-off over the disputed Nagorno
Karabakh territory and its adjacent areas has in recent days turned
into an inter-state military conflict with potentially destabilizing
implications.

Gone are the previous optimistic predictions that pragmatism and
outside mediation, particularly the so-called Minsk Process led by
Russia, the United States and France, could yield a peaceful
resolution to a vexing ethnic and territorial dispute rooted in
history.

The recent flare-up has put Iran, a regional power that shares a land
border with both warring parties, on high alert. Turkey also shares a
border with both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Seeking to finally reverse the early 1990s military defeat that
wrested away some 20% of Azerbaijan’s UN-recognized territory,
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has characterized his country’s
military offensive as a campaign that “will end the occupation that
has lasted for nearly 30 years.”

But given the difficult mountainous terrain and the Armenians’
military resources backed by Russia, chances are that Baku will fall
short of that military objective and instead may have to settle for
incremental advances to be utilized as leverage for a next round of
negotiations.

Iran’s Azeri minority

Significantly, Tehran has offered to mediate between Baku and Yerevan.
Although Iran has good neighborly ties with both Armenia and
Azerbaijan, it has been accused by Azerbaijan of taking Armenia’s side
in the past, partly because of Baku’s pro-NATO stance and its cozy
relations with Israel, which has equipped Armenia with drones and
other hardware.

An Azerbaijan victory in the current war may in fact result in the
enlargement of the Iran-Azerbaijan border by approximately 130
kilometers.

But given Iran’s still fresh memory of the Azeri-led irredentist
pressure of the 1990s, advanced through the discourse of a “widening
Azerbaijan” encompassing parts of Iran, it is not in Iran’s national
security interests to deal with an empowered and potentially menacing
neighbor to its north in cohort with its arch-nemesis Israel.

That’s all the more true now that Israel has inserted itself in the
Persian Gulf security calculus through its recent successful
normalization of ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain.

Given its sizable Iranian-Azeri minority, comprising a quarter of the
population, Iran is careful not to damage sensitive relations with
neighboring Azerbaijan, which unlike Armenia has refused to join the
Russian-dominated Eurasia Economic Union (EEU). Iran has signed a free
trade agreement with the EEU.

Both Russia and Iran are concerned that Azerbaijan “can become a NATO
outpost in the Caspian in the future, especially if it can defeat and
dominate its neighbor Armenia,” according to a Tehran political
science professor who wishes to remain anonymous.

For now, Iran’s main worry is a spill-over of the conflict into its
territory, new waves of refugees and other unwanted consequences of a
brewing war that bodes ill for regional stability.  The Tehran
professor predicts a “spirited effort” by Iran in coordination with
Russia, Europe and the UN to bring peace quickly to South Caucasus.

Yet so far Iran’s call for an immediate cease-fire has fallen on deaf ears.


Pipelines in play

The timing of the new conflict, coinciding with the impending
operationalization of much-anticipated energy pipelines running from
gas-rich Azerbaijan to Europe through Georgia, gives it an
international dimension wrought with geo-economic and geopolitical
ramifications.

The pipelines, which bypass Russia and Iran, are meant to reduce
Europe’s energy dependence on Moscow in sight of US sanctions on
Russia over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany.

Speculation is rife that Putin, already unhappy with perceived US and
European meddling in Belarus, has struck back through Armenia.

The country can easily shell the critical infrastructure in the narrow
Tovus land strip where more than 80% of Azeri energy travels through
the pipelines of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyahn oil pipeline, the South
Caucasus Natural Gas pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tblisi-Kars
railway.

At the same time, Moscow has ordered a massive military exercise in
the Caspian and Black Sea regions with the participation of the
Chinese and Iranian navies, thus sending a clear signal to the West
that it still considers the Caucasus as its natural sphere of
influence.

Inevitably, this will introduce new thorns in Russia’s already prickly
relations with Turkey, which solidly backs Baku in its current bid to
regain the Armenian-controlled territory.

Stalemated negotiation

So far there is insufficient international will to douse the flames
engulfing the South Caucasus, notwithstanding the distractions caused
by the pandemic and the divergent paths of the US and France over how
to handle Iran and Lebanon.

There is also Russia’s determination to make the US pay for its
opposition to Nord Stream 2, and Iran’s growing concerns about
Israel’s perceived security encroachment. From Tehran’s perspective,
Israel is no longer an “out of area” adversary irrelevant to Iran’s
national security calculus.

The only viable path for peace in South Caucasus is at the negotiation
table, in line with the four UN resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh and
the Minsk Group’s peace proposal. Those have called for the
restoration of Baku’s sovereignty over Nagorno Karabakh, respect for
the rights of Armenians inhabiting the disputed territory, the return
of mass refugees and the creation of a land corridor to Armenia.

Hypothetically speaking, Nagorno Karabakh can become another
autonomous enclave similar to Nakhchivan, located between Armenia and
northwestern Iran. Nakhchivan was a part of Iran until the Treaty of
Turkmanchay in 1828 that awarded it to Russia after Iran’s military
defeat.

It’s unclear if local Karabakh Armenians, who look more to the Kosovo
model in the Balkans in their current aspiration for complete
independence from Azerbaijan, will consent to the re-imposition of
Baku’s authoritarian control.

So far, no one in the international community including Iran has
recognized the Kosovo-like efforts of Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh,
leading but to one conclusion: the unstable status quo must change
sooner or later, and it can come about only through concerted
international efforts such as the dispatch of a peacekeeping force,
which is so far missing.


 

FAF CP-Tous pour l'Artsakh.pdf