ArmInfo. Baku is already difficult and over time it will only be harder to explain to the world its own unwillingness to speak with a Stepanakert. Director of the Armenian Center for Strategic and National Studies Manvel Sargsyan expressed such opinion to ArmInfo.
"The current situation around the Karabakh conflict is characterized by the withdrawal of old approaches around its settlement. The Vienna agreement on the implementation of control mechanisms and the identification of the violator of the truce led to the fact that the so-called military diplomacy worked against Azerbaijan itself. In other words, the shots began to play against the violator of the truce which is extremely dangerous for Baku. Plus, the change of power in Yerevan led to the failure of the Yerevan-Moscow-Baku triangle whereby Azerbaijan repeatedly forced Serzh Sargsyan and to the solutions that are necessary. In April 2016, this became obvious, "he stressed.
In this light, according to analysts, the negotiation process will resume only with the return of the Artsakh people to the negotiating table. At the same time, in Baku, in his opinion, he will not agree. However, no one in the world, except Turkey and Pakistan, is going to recognize the de facto formal rights of Azerbaijan to Artsakh, while not recognizing its right to use force. Thus, Baku, according to Sargsyan, it remains only to conduct formal negotiations, trying to return to the situation before April 2016.
According to the analyst, while recognizing the preservation of the status quo around Artsakh for an indefinite time, the world community will not accept military resolution of the conflict and no one will allow Azerbaijan to be shot. According to his estimates, it is becoming more and more dangerous to play with the Karabakh conflict. And the high legitimacy of the new authorities of Armenia and, as a result, the degree of sovereignty deprived even the former methods of influence on Yerevan.
Conflict resolution Sargsyan connects with the achievement of international consensus on this issue. On the example of Kosovo. In this light, he noted the achievement of a similar consensus on the issue of the non- use of force to resolve the conflict. In this light, according to his forecasts, the unauthorized provocation by Baku of a new round of escalation will end very badly for Azerbaijan. Especially, taking into account the results of the "four-day war" of 2016. "Starting a war today is a serious matter, but rather a serious one. Especially full-scale, which will then be very difficult to stop. Such a war would destabilize the entire vast region, part of which is the South Caucasus, up to the Russian North Caucasus. Fortunately, today everyone understands , hence the international consensus prohibiting Azerbaijan from using force, "the analyst concluded.