IMF REVISES GROWTH PROJECTION FOR ARMENIA – ONE PERCENT DECLINE IN 2015
YEREVAN, April 15. /ARKA/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
has lowered its economic growth outlook for Armenia for 2015 by one
percent, according to IMF’s World Economic Outlook report for April.
The report says Armenia’s inflation is expected at 6.4% in 2015.
The budgeted GDP growth is 4.1% and inflation is 4% (±1.5%).
Many international organizations have worsened their forecasts of
Armenia’s economy growth.
In particular, the WB’s projection for Armenia for 2015 is 0.8%
economic growth and that of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is
1.6%. The EBRD expects zero growth in Armenia this year. The Asian
Development Bank (ADB) projection is 1.6%. Fitch’s last review suggests
a moderate recession in the Armenian economy in 2015, due to worsening
in Russia. Moody’s expects Armenia’s economy to grow by 2.3%.
The country’s central bank says the economic growth will range between
0.4% and 2%.
According to IMF’s previous report presented by the head of IMF Armenia
mission Mark Horton in Yerevan, the economy was expected to recover
slowly in the next 2-4 years and GDP growth would be up to 3-3.5%
in mid term, influenced by downward revision of Russia’s GDP growth
in mid term.
According to Horton, among other factors that may restrict the growth
in the period is the higher foreign debt load that leads to a need for
structural reforms and for more open and integrated economy. According
to IMF’s report for April, a 2.6% decline is expected in CIS economies,
influenced by negative effects from the Russian economy.
The IMF expects that economy will decline by 3.8% in Russia, 5.5%
in Ukraine, 2.3% in Belarus and 1% in Moldova. The 2015 economic
growth projection is 2% for Kazakhstan, 6.2% for Uzbekistan, 0.6%
for Azerbaijan, 9% for Turkmenistan, 2% for Georgia, 3% for Tajikistan
and 1.7% for Kyrgyzstan.
According to the report, the global economy growth outlook is unchanged
for 2015 – 3.5% and is raised from 3.7 to 3.8% for 2016. In 2015,
economic growth will speed up in developed countries to 2.4% (from
1.8% last year) and will slow down in developing nations to 4.3%
(compared to 4.6% in 2014), says the report. -0–