Central Bank Forecasts 30% Decline Of Personal Transfers In 2015


by Karina Melikyan

Tuesday, February 24, 12:53

Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has forecasted a 30% decline of personal
transfers (in terms of US dollar) in 2015, and a growth of transfers
in Russia rubles with certain slackening.

According to the monetary policy program of the CBA for Q1 2015, net
flow of non-commercial personal transfers via the banking system of
Armenia fell 30.5% in Q4 2014. Russia accounts for over 80% of total
money transfers to Armenia. The decline is forecasted given such
factors as the sudden devaluation of the Russia rubles against the
US solar in Q4 2014 and the anticipated economic decline in Russia
in 2015. In particular, a 2%-3.8% economic decline is anticipated in
Russia in 2015 and the downward trend will continue in 2016. In 2017,
it is forecasted that the economic activity will be recovered and
will experience up to 1% growth by the end of 2017.

According to the CBA, in 2015 the economic growth in Armenia will
slacken and make up 0.4%-2% versus 3.5%-3.5% in late 2014. According
to the World Bank forecasts, the economic growth in Armenia will total
3.3% versus 2.6% in 2014. In 2016, GDP of Armenia may reach 3.7% and in
2017 – 4.1%. The draft budget of Armenia for 2015 is based on a 4.1%
growth of the real GDP and 2.34% deficit. In nominal terms, GDP will
total 4.867.5 billion drams. According to the National Statistical
Service of Armenia, economic activity of Armenia for Jan-Dec 2014 as
compared to the same period of 2013 grew 3.9%.


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