ANALYSIS: SARGSYAN-TSARUKYAN “HOT WAR” ENDS, POLICY ON PAP’S OUSTER WILL CONTINUE
ANALYSIS | 18.02.15 | 11:18
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Internal political tensions in Armenia appear to be subsiding and even
if it takes place on February 20 the opposition rally is unlikely
to have the potential to grow into clashes or lead to a change of
government.
The key opposition elements appear to be seeking peace with President
Serzh Sargsyan. The first step was admittedly made by the second
President Robert Kocharyan, who is believed to be the political
patron of Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) leader Gagik Tsarukyan. In
an interview published by his unofficial website, Kocharyan addressed
the persecutions of Tsarukyan, but stopped short of openly condemning
Sargsyan for his actions. He only warned that further steps could
lead to escalation.
Then, it was the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan
who published an open letter addressed to Sargsyan and offering to
meet “at any convenient time”. Ter-Petrosyan linked the necessity
of such a meeting with the upcoming events commemorating the 100th
anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. He proposed the establishment
of a commission and even expressed willingness to personally take
part in the preparation of an all-national document that will be
addressed to the heads of all international organizations.
Later on Tuesday reports suggested that Sargsyan and Tsarukyan held a
meeting that was reportedly mediated by Russian billionaire of Armenian
descent, owner of the Tashir group Samvel Karapetyan. Sources at the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation confirmed the fact of the meeting
between Sargsyan and Tsarukyan and that the two have reconciled.
Nevertheless, the “peace” deal is unlikely to mean the return of the
PAP to the active political arena. Four members have already left the
party’s parliamentary faction, prosecutions of several PAP members have
been launched, and Tsarukyan himself was deprived of a number of posts.
Analysts say that Sargsyan has agreed to stop the persecution, not
going as far as the arrest and prosecution of Tsarukyan. But he has
refused to stop the “de-actualization” of the PAP and the current
policies aimed at achieving the disorganization of the PAP faction
and the party itself will continue.
Experts link the possible reconsolidation of the “three Armenian
presidents” (the incumbent president, Serzh Sargsyan, and his two
predecessors, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Robert Kocharyan) with the
upcoming Centennial of the Armenian Genocide to be marked on April 24,
when Armenia will become the scene of important international events.
At the hottest time of the domestic strife Sargsyan withdrew from the
parliament the Armenian-Turkish protocols, thereby declaring that he
is not going to deviate from the path of claims to Turkey.
The three Armenian presidents do not have the experience of joint
participation in events, they have no joint photograph. And the
100th anniversary of the genocide may become the most natural
occasion when the interests of the three presidents will meet. The
presidents themselves surely understand that. They themselves know
that no internal arguments can justify their refusal to participate
in all-national events.
From: A. Papazian