CARDS ARE ON THE TABLE
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – 13 December 2014, 00:29
Armenia has humbly and stupidly entered a so-called Eurasian project,
actually becoming Russia’s vassal but this has not resolved even the
most general problems.
Russia’s economic collapse has made this initiative meaningless, and
all the participants of the project, or rather Russia’s vassals have
realized that they have to cope with this disaster individually. There
is not just a debate but the scandalous understanding of how capable
the Armenian elite are to manage the country, whether the Armenian
society is capable of political thinking. There is an obvious fuss
which must end in fundamental solutions.
However, a more credible explanation of this fuss is the domestic
interests in Armenia. The political fight in Armenia is taking a
dangerous and unpredictable course which has caused a big interest
abroad among political, diplomatic and analytical circles. It is
believed that future processes in the South Caucasus and Russia’s
role in the region will depend greatly on the results of parliamentary
elections in Armenia.
These expectations are not quite adequate and do not express the
real processes. These expectations are based on the thesis that the
situation and generally the political situation in Armenia is not
stationary and the country cannot be listed among developed societies.
This increases Moscow’s interest in what is happening. Moscow is
looking for ways of affecting the outcome of the election, and
apparently some political strategists among whom there are a lot of
sincere friends of Armenia have found nothing but rendering NATO a key
issue in the arrangement of forces and political scramble in Armenia,
which apparently was enabled by the stakeholders in Yerevan.
In addition, not the virtual field of internet has been chosen for
this discussion but a specific geographical area – Moscow. However,
while the issue of controversies between the government and the
actual opposition was observed in this “field” as a serious struggle
of principles, what surprises is the willingness with which the two
political groups accepted the rules or structure of discussion of
their struggle.
However, if Serzh Sargsyan did not react to this trick of political
strategists, despite enjoying Moscow’s support, his opponents saw those
developments rather dangerous for them and attacked, fearing oblivion,
evidence to which is rapid decline of the opposition’s rating.
This moment is interesting in the sense that the cards are on the
table, and the Americans, the “anthological opponents”, have been
demonstrated who is with who and where is headed for.
Of course, the pro-Atlantic and pro-American self-sufficiency of both
Serzh Sargsyan and opposition leaders arouses as much doubt as their
ability to do politics but obviously Serzh Sargsyan has turned an
alternative pro-Western politician or rather a politician who has no
alternative, and he has consciously accepted the game which is useful
for him.
At last, there is “officially” an agent of Atlantism in the Armenian
reality or, in fact, an “agent but not Atlantist”. The artificially
grown complementary “Atlantist” is needed by others, especially likely
candidates for the post of president.
However, in this situation it is necessary to remember and mention
everyone who has visited NATO headquarters and Pentagon, seeking for
assistance in these two “sacral” institutions. Levon Ter-Petrosyan
became an outsider in the Atlantic direction of the policy of Armenia
in the recent years though all this is artificial and adjusted to
external requirements and interests.
Despite his “new” relations with the Americans Serzh Sargsyan will
remain the pro-Russian field while Ter-Petrosyan is doomed to the
absolutely “pro-American” one. The question occurs whether the actual
and actualized Armenian politicians are capable of being “Atlantists”,
“Eurasianists”, “Europists” and other similar things.
Will Russia benefit from this game situation and in what perspective?
It turns out that Russia is after clarity, predictability and
one-dimensionality in Armenia and is making efforts towards creating
an Atlantist party, bidding on quite unpopular tricks. However,
the game may soon transform to a determinate and stationary situation.
Obviously, the Americans are bidding on neither Serzh Sargsyan,
nor Levon Ter-Petrosyan. They are rather odious individuals bound
to most unpleasant and unacceptable circumstances with innumerable
chains and deals.
It is time to understand that in reality the whole political elite of
Armenia has been left out of global politics and cannot be perceived
as a partner by world centers. This concerns not only the political
leadership but also the entire political class, business circles,
administration which are perceived as servicing politicians without
any stance.
Nevertheless, though Serzh Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan are
political opponents, there are no grounds to claim that they pursue
different goals. They are the leaders of two groups which are after
power and are perceived by Americans as such.
At present, after some intense developments in domestic controversy
the United States concluded that it is necessary to work with
the group that will come to government without the opposition’s
obvious and strong support. Now the United States cannot see an
“ideal” political group in Armenia that would be able to combine
pro-Americanism or closer cooperation with the United States with
respect for democratic norms.
Now the United States is considering Raffi Hovhanisyan as a priority
partner in the domestic field of Armenia whose preferences and
objectives are rather speculative and demagogic.
Hence, the actual politicians of Armenia who have more realistic
ambitions did not stand the pace and rhythm of the political struggle
and obviously felt the risks that were facing them in the domestic
fight and decided to use foreign political resources for clarification
inside the team.
Furthermore, even the traditional “cleanup” took place because in
the existing situation even such a proven resource as compromising
materials is not effective in the country or rather the main
compromising material is the geopolitical bias. It still remains
something absurd because the geopolitical preferences of these
politicians are but an invented thesis. Those attempts to put
everything in its place will not lead anywhere and are the result of
confusion and lack of confidence.
The international financial organizations started helping Armenia, and
apparently not only in keeping the exchange rate of the currency. The
real economy is concerned where the West will try to demonstrate
Russia’s incapacity to provide assistance to Armenia.
In the situation where Russia has appeared it becomes more dangerous
and capable of nasty sabotages and there have already been warnings.
However, it is possible to overcome this state of dementia of our
country only by way of running serious risks.
Those risks might signal to the West that Armenia as a sovereign state
is not dead. The international financial organizations must make sure
that their loans are repaid but this is not the key issue. The West
would like to benefit from the existing situation in Eastern Europe
to eliminate this Eurasian project.
Armenia has an important role to play in this game, and it is to carry
out certain objectives. If the Armenian entrepreneurs understand how
detrimental their situation and how hopeless the Russian market is,
they must think about and make up their mind on entering the Western
market.