Georgian Chaos Or Dream: Tbilisi Is Warned
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments – 07 November 2014, 00:06
The United States has reacted to the ongoing developments in Georgia.
The spokesman of the U.S. Department of State Jen Psaki has expressed
concerns about resignations in Georgia, calling the sides to act for
the sake of stability and democracy in Georgia. Psaki appreciated
highly the contribution of the resigned ministers to the life in
Georgia and partnership with the United States.
Psaki said it is in the interests of Georgia to be united, stable,
faithful to democracy, especially amid the current instability in the
region and economic issues.
Psaki said Washington insists that the sides focus on the
Euro-Atlantic path of Georgia and calls the Georgian government to
disperse doubts that the actions of the law enforcement system are
serving a political purpose.
The speaker of the Department of State means the statement of the
dismissed Georgian minister of defense Irakli Alasania that the
Prosecutor General’s Office is using the veil of fight on corruption
to weaken the Ministry of Defense and hinder the Euro-Atlantic path.
After Alasania’s dismissal the foreign minister and the state minister
of European integration affairs who are members of his team resigned,
and Alasania’s Free Democrats Party has left the Georgian Dream
coalition. Thus the coalition has stopped being majority and needs at
least one additional vote because the ruling coalition has 75 seats in
a parliament with 150 seats.
In fact, the statement of the U.S. Secretary of State is evidence to
doubts about the commitment of the Georgian government to the
Euro-Atlantic path of Georgia. When the Georgian Dream headed by
Bidzina Ivanishvili came to power in Georgia, it was perceived as
replacement of pro-NATO Saakashvili by pro-Russian Ivanishvilii who is
a Russian billionaire. Nevertheless, before coming to power
Ivanishvili lost his companies in Russia. Months after the victory in
the parliamentary election Ivanishvili confessed that he had funded
Saalashvili’s presidency and reforms and acted against him after he
noticed that Saakashvili was stepping down from the path of reforms.
Ivanishvili would hardly assume responsibility from Moscow to distract
Georgia from the Euro-Atlantic path and return it under Russian rule.
Judging by his thoughts, he was an enough prudent and adequate person
to assume such responsibility. Most probably, he was a compromise
between the West and Russia. Russia was happy that Saakashvili left,
the West alleviated the Russian-Georgian tension and its burden of
responsibility for Georgia.
However, the Ukrainian crisis has changed the state of affairs. At the
same time, Ivanishvili has moved to one side. At least, he is not
expressing any point of view on recent developments in Georgia in the
capacity of the “patriarch” of the Georgian government. It is not
ruled out that he has done his job and left, completing his deal with
the West and Russia.
It is not ruled out that Ivanishvili has cheated either the West or
Russia. Nevertheless, however, the compromise-based solutions are no
longer valid after the Ukrainian crisis, and tension in Georgia is, to
some extent, logical and expected in the context of new geopolitical
developments.
In NATO Wales Summit the Euro-Atlantic community took a deciding step
and outlined important decisions and prospects relating to Georgia,
including establishment of a NATO base. There was no doubt that Russia
would react and the domestic attack on Georgia’s most vivid and
influential supporter of the Euro-Atlantic path Irakli Alasania is
evidence to this.
However, there is ambiguity here. The attack is possible but the next
step of decisions and intentions of NATO Wales Summit is possible
which supposes crystallization of the political situation in Georgia
and establishment of political premises and guarantees for
implementing Wales resolutions.
Hence, emergence of an influential opposition supporting the
Euro-Atlantic path in Georgia is possible which may be an important
guarantee of the Euro-Atlantic path of the government. It is not ruled
out that Euro-Atlantic doubts had occurred earlier, following the
Russian-Georgian negotiations and their so-called non-public agenda.
And removal of Alasania from the coalition is not a consequence of
Russian initiatives but a Euro-Atlantic preventive step when the
ruling coalition is facing risk of losing power and its potential for
U-turns decreases.
The split in Georgia to Euro-Atlantists who have left the government
and the government that causes doubts about its commitment to the
Euro-Atlantic path may make this path more unitary if an opposition
that is committed to that path emerges. And there is potential for
such opposition. Alasania and Saakashvili’s political force which are
not together, of course, may form an alliance. At least, the focus of
the current domestic crisis – proclamation of risk to the
Euro-Atlantic path – indicates probability of alliance.
The Georgian president Margvelashvili has made a special statement on
the Euro-Atlantic path of the government, implementation of legal
documents with NATO and the EU. He noted that the Euro-Atlantic path
of Georgia has not changed because it is the choice of people, not
politicians, but it needs to be discussed how the politicians serve
people. He called the government and the parliament to discuss the
progress of implementation of agreements with NATO and the EU.