ARMENIA’S ACCESSION TO EEU LIKE GOING TO SIBERIA WITH NO SHIRT ON – BAGRAT ASATRYAN
22:20 * 03.11.14
The problems of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union
(EEU) were discussed in their political or technical and normative
respects. However, quite a number of problems have not so far been
discussed, ex-chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Bagrat Asatryan
told Tert.am.
He sticks to his opinion that Armenia’s accession to the EEU is not
highly promising.
“Quite a number of problems have not so far been discussed. I mean
our countries’ economic policy and individual measures. We are joining
the Customs Union. But we are integrating into an environment which is
like Siberian winter for a person who does not even have a shirt on,”
Mr Asatryan said.
“We are integrating into a different economic environment, with higher
customs rates and lower statutory prices. But what about the economic
policy, monetary policy and different levels of economic relations
in the EEU member-states?”
Armenia is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), while
Russia is going to join it.
“The trade regime in Armenia is different from that of Russia in terms
of quality. But we are speaking of the economic policy principles. We
have reached a rather high level of liberalization as compared to
Russia,” Mr Asatryan said.
With respect to monetary policy, he said that Armenia has for a long
period implemented a target pricing policy, with specific solutions.
Russia is only now switching over to this policy.
“Given the different currency policies in Armenia and Russia, can
Armenian producers work in Russian market?”
In Russia, the government has a serious share in all the large
companies, which is not the case in Armenia.
“To say nothing of budget formulation there – oil and so on. In
Armenia, however, economic entities are operating in a free zone,
without being backed.”
As regards possible problems for Armenia’s banking system, Mr
Asatryan said:
“On the one hand, Russia’s government-backed financial sector, when
funds are invested in the banks, and, on the other hand, Armenian banks
that have no means. It is clear that there can be no competition.”
With respect to the currency policy in Armenia and Russia, Mr Asatryan
said that, in contrast to Russia, a floating exchange rate system is in
effect in Armenia. And when the Central Bank intervened in 2008-2009,
Armenia faced unfavorable consequences.
Armenia’s Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan stated that the sanctions
against Russia will affect Armenia’s economy, and the budgeted 4%
economic growth may not be ensured.
“Should we elaborate a program for Armenia’s economy to be more or
less protected? No risks are expected if we compare with the mid-term
program, which envisages lower economic growth for 2015. It was the
government’s program, but the government is repudiating it now. Will
ever be any political consequences? What other risks are there? It
is clear that the budgeted 4.1% economic growth is unrealistic.
“A few words about the budget. The budgeted revenues are lower than
envisaged by the mid-term program. How low can economic growth be? Are
we not approaching the situation similar to that in 2009, when the
premier himself stated the situation would be bad, but they approved
a budget, after which they put everything down to the crisis. I can
say that risks are rather high, and an economic decline – or more or
less tangible growth – should be expected next year and later. And
it is at least 7% growth that is tangible in Armenia’s case.
“Who is supposed to speak of that except for the government? I place
no hopes on the Parliament represented by the ruling party. They are
people concerned over their personal profit. And an absurd situation
may develop, when with a 15% economic decline no businessman will
suffer losses. How many big businessmen went bankrupt in 2009? But 15%
of the population did.”
Armenian News – Tert.am