ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI-FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL MEETING: WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS?
21:04 * 24.10.14
Political scientist Ruben Mehrabyan believes that an
Armenian-Azerbaijan-French presidential meeting to take place in
Paris, on October 27, is a good opportunity for reaching intermediate
results in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.
The question is, however, whether the sides will take advantage of the
opportunity.
The fact of the meeting without Russia’s involvement is the most
important thing, Mr Mehrabyan told Tert.am.
“It can be considered a positive result. In fact, the Russian factor
affects the settlement process, while the United States is not using
its full potential. My impression is that the USA is inclined to
regulate the conflict management rather than to seek a resolution to
the problem as such or cause it to reach an intermediate stage,” Mr
Mehrabyan said.
According to the expert, the intermediate results will be agreements
on principles and further specific steps, confidence-building
mechanisms.
“They are most important factors in the conflict settlement,” Mr Mehrabyan said.
Asked about more frequent Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meetings
during the recent period – the two presidents are holding their third
meeting during the last three months – and, if insignificant, but
possible positive results, the expert said that the extradition of
Ramil Safarov caused a crisis in the negotiation process. However,
more frequent Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meetings have lately
taken place, which is a positive change.
“But one important thing can be noted. The meetings have been held for
the last 20 years, after the tensest period. That is, both Azerbaijan
and the international community have been convinced that a war will
not resolve the problem and negotiations are the only way. Not only
rhetoric, but reality,” Mr Mehrabyan said.
It is more frequent meetings that have eased the border tensions,
especially prior to important meetings, which is an intermediate
result.
Political scientist Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan believes that at the
upcoming meeting France will place emphasis on the humanitarian points
on the Madrid principles, which is not in Armenia’s interests.
“The humanitarian bloc of the Madrid principles implies refugees’
return. That is, it is more dangerous for us than the other points of
the Madrid principles. France has no geopolitical ambitions or serious
economic interests in our region. So the only thing it can do is to
place emphasis on the humanitarian bloc. Our president should decline
such proposals,” the expert said.
Armenia’s authorities should be cautious as it is difficult to decline
proposals described as humanitarian ones.
As regards his opinion on the frequent meetings over the recent period
and their possible positive impact on the peace process, Mr
Melik-Shahnazaryan said that, regrettably, that the
Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meetings depend on certain states’
domestic or foreign policy problems.
“For example, Russia, making use of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is
trying to settle political issues, showing the United States that it
[Russia], rather than the West, is the key actor in the region. The
USA has its interests in the region, and France has its interests.
That is, more frequent meetings have nothing in common with the peace
process. Rather, they have to do with the interests of superpowers and
their leaders, who organize the meetings,” the expert said.
He does not hold any special expectations about the upcoming meeting.
From: A. Papazian