Military Actions Resumed A Long Time Ago


Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments – 12 July 2014, 16:20

In an interview with the Argentinean periodical Serzh Sargsyan
announces that he does not rule out resumption of military actions
but Azerbaijan cannot do it and being well-armed is not a guarantee
of victory.

If the Armenian side does not rule out resumption of military actions,
what does it mean that Azerbaijan cannot do it? Who has then if
resumption of military actions is not ruled out? If Azerbaijan is
going to pull the trigger whereas Armenia thinks Baku cannot do it,
then Yerevan should not think that resumption of war is possible.

Perhaps Serzh Sargsyan hints that Azerbaijan will not resume military
actions, if war starts, it will be launched by someone else. Whom
does Sargsyan mean? Turkey, Russia or the West?

Currently Russia is worried about resumption of military actions the
most. Russian experts are not hiding this, making it clear to Armenia
that if the Armenians want security, they must agree to deployment of
peacekeepers in Artsakh. Russia is trying to form CSTO peacekeeping
forces and ensure the UN mandate for this purpose.

The West is not interested in a war much because the current
arrangement and balance of forces makes it obvious that resumption
of military actions will boost Russian dominance. The West does not
believe in the option of counteraction through Turkey, especially
considering the episodes of the history of Russian-Turkish deal.

Iran is not prone to military actions either because the status quo
is the best for Tehran, and it will hardly be possible to ensure more
in case of military actions.

Resumption of military actions is not an undesirable prospect for
Turkey but it is a bit risky now because the domestic situation in
Turkey is not stable, and some foreign developments in the Near East
cause concerns in Ankara. Hence, Ankara would hardly agree to wage
a war in the Caucasus now.

Russia will not launch military actions without Turkey’s support or
at least tacit agreement. However, large-scale military actions are
meant because actions as such have already started, intensifying
since September 3.

Since September 3 Azerbaijan has been active on the border, and
losses of the Armenian side have increased. Meanwhile, it seems that
Azerbaijan should have been constrained by closer Armenian-Russian
relations since Armenia has thus gained a “scary defender”.

However, the opposite has happened. Since September 3 the Armenian
factor has been neutralized, which is the consequence of Azerbaijan’s
activity along the borders.

This allows Russia to keep the issue hot until Turkey is swayed into
giving its consent for large-scale military actions. Tension and
losses on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border are necessary to keep the
issue on the agenda. This is ensured though military actions that
resumed a long time ago.

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