What Other Sensation Do You Need?
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – Saturday, 10 May 2014, 12:18
The eminent representatives of the Yerevan-based information sphere
did not admit there was a sensation. Either we are unable to tell a
sensation or the `zone’ is already in such a situation that a
sensation would be an exaggeration. Something more important than a
sensation took place. The United States has set out to form a new
front of pressure against Russia.
The recent speech of the American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group
relates directly to the `zone’. Last time the United States used the
issue as a lever of pressure on Russia in the spring of 2001 when
NATO’s southern enlargement plans were unfolded to force Russia to
make concessions over missiles. Then the initiative of Key West was
made. Since then the United States has not tried to use the problem
because new processes relating to the Turkish-American relations took
place.
All over this period the United States has imparted with a new essence
the South Caucasus, including the `zone’, which used to be viewed as a
partner with at least two functions: containment of Turkish expansion
and balance of forces in the South Caucasus.
Later the strategy based on the concept of `dual containment’ changed,
and the `zone’ became more topical. If not for the disaster of
September 3, Warlick would not make his report, and the United States
would successfully push the `zone’ towards Euro-Atlantic integration
and subsequently resolve all the other issues.
Things happen at the right time. As Lragir.am wrote earlier, under the
influence of developments in Eastern Europe the United States revised
essentially its policy in the South Caucasus. Saakashvili’s ideas and
plans were revived, and Azerbaijan became a strategic partner of the
United States which was initially staked.
The `zone’ which the Americans were considering as a possible partner
in the strategy of `dual containment’ of Turkish and Russian expansion
has lost its sovereignty, and does not interest anyone. The president
of the `zone’ Serzh Sargsyan attends absurd CSTO military exercises
which are obviously aimed at Ukraine. The behavior of `zone’ leaders
supposes its disappearance from the political map. What other
sensation do you need?
Earlier the `zone’ had a lot of positive expectations, such as
formation of a joint regional bloc with Georgia under the aegis of
NATO, obtaining a new status within the framework of integration with
NATO, integration with the European Union, including security matters,
development of cooperation with Iran with high interest of the United
States and the European Union.
However, all these things were possible in a sovereign state, not a
vassal formation followed by `zone’ format. The `zone’ has lost its
value for any strategy, both the U.S. and NATO and Iran. Nobody would
deal with the vassal of an ambitious isolated state. The `zone’ is not
just isolated. It has been erased from international politics.
For a long time the United States was interested in military and
economic strengthening of the `zone’ and did not undertake anything to
resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan. Now that the relations with both
Azerbaijan and Turkey have been revised to rapprochement and new
arrangements, it is meaningless to continue the policy of balance of
forces in the region.
No doubt the American co-chair’s report is a wish to punish the `zone’
severely but to intensify pressure on Russia. Russia must be isolated
and blocked in all the directions, primarily the Black Sea and the
South Caucasian region. However, the U.S. would have such an
indisputable position only in a situation when the `zone’ consciously
chose the way of being a Russian vassal.
In addition, the Americans are well-aware and appreciate the obedience
of the population of the `zone’ which cannot utter a sound when its
homeland is deprived of independence. Strangely, this U.S. policy is
favorable for Russia because the `zone’ is recognized as a vassal, and
Moscow considers this a positive development.
In fact, Russia sheds responsibility for the `zone’ because its
existence is meaningless when a powerful Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia
bloc is formed in the Black Sea-Caucasus region supported by NATO and
the United States. Some time ago nobody expected such a situation,
other processes were taking place.
Of course, not much depended on the `zone’ when Maidan was happening
but there is no doubt that with support from the West the `zone’ would
have avoided such a shameful and disastrous situation.
The Americans presented an absolutely precise report, at the right
moment, when the new phase or rather the new direction of isolation
and blockade of Russia starts. Putin’s last hope is the CSTO
illusionary partners and allies when it is not clear what the allies
are going to do and whether they exist at all.
The report is drafted in the form of provocation, mentioning return of
Lachin and repopulated territories which will mean a disaster for the
`zone’. In addition, the addressee is not the `zone’ but Russia with
which every substantial conversation has to be conducted. Entering
into serious relations with the `zone’ is simply funny and
meaningless. It was clearly explained to the `zonal government’,
without leaving illusions.
Now it is clear that the political leadership of the `zone’ could not
even imagine what a disaster awaited it when it made the decision of
September 3, which is evidence that this leadership is not capable of
politics, and now its mercenaries confess the complete failure of
their bosses.
Moreover, the entire political hierarchy of the `zone’ has appeared in
such a situation, including at least 200 people who are in one way or
another responsible for the destiny of the `zone’.
Seiran Ohanyan has announced that the army is ready to defend every
span of land. We would like to believe this but it takes a relevant
order for the army to fulfill its duty. Will there be such an order
when all the orders come from Moscow?
One way or another, the result of this political turn will be
elimination of foreign factors that restrain resumption of war.
Currently the United States is not interested in curbing such
aggressive behavior towards the `zone’. On the contrary, the Americans
are interested in a solution that will lead to Russia’s loss of its
last positions in the region.
The pilot project of moderate policy of the United States and its
partners on Russia is over. Now the United States would like to engage
Russia in military conflicts possibly far from Europe. However, the
government of the `zone’ is not capable of any independent action and
will follow Moscow’s instructions. They have gone past the turnabout.
When you assess one aspect of the risks, it is better to look around
and understand all the risks and threats.
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