WILL YEREVAN EMULATE KIEV?
EDITORIAL | MARCH 3, 2014 2:59 PM
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By Edmond Y. Azadian
If anyone tries to convince you that the Cold War is over, take that
statement with a grain of salt. The Cold War is continuing, if not
intensifying.
After the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the West rushed in to fill
the power vacuum left in the absence of a central Soviet regime, by
engaging the newly-emancipated Eastern European countries into the
European Union and NATO structures. It even drew the line in the sand
for Russia after dismembering former Yugoslavia.
In 2008, Moscow drew its own line in the sand by attacking and
“liberating” parts of Georgia. Ukraine remained the center of a
tug-of-war between Russia and the West, shifting allegiance at least
three times.
The Orange Revolution of 2004 brought to power Victor Yushchenko and
Yulia Timoshenko, which nudged the country toward the West. By 2010,
the erstwhile allies had become bitter enemies and during a three-way
presidential election, former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich won,
shifting the country back towards Moscow.
Thus the country teetered between the two tectonic centers of power
until the recent revolt emerged at Kiev’s Maidan, which brought down
Yanukovich’s administration.
He had just struck a deal with the opposition, with the blessing of the
foreign ministers of France, the UK and Poland. The agreement called
for the revival of the 2004 constitution limiting the presidential
powers and setting a December date for the election. The Maidan
protestors, however, did not heed the agreement and the government
fell. Yanukovich was deposed by the Ukrainian Rada (Parliament),
which appointed Alexander Turchinov as interim president.
Naturally, these developments were filtered through different and
opposing lenses; for the West, the will of the Ukrainian people had
won, while for the Russians, street gangs and thugs had usurped power
through violence.
A pivotal role was played in this transition by Arsen Avakov, minister
of the interior, an ethnic Armenian.
There is no doubt that the tug-of-war will continue. Susan Rice,
President Obama’s national security chief, has warned Moscow against
any military intervention.
Ukraine is a vast country with a population of 46 million. Seventy
percent of its trade is with Russia. There is a precedent that Moscow
has interrupted the flow of gas to Ukraine when things did not go to
its liking.
The eastern regions of the country are the most industrialized and
are populated by Russian-speaking and Russophile Ukrainians, who have
already been agitating. The Crimean peninsula, birthplace of Hovhannes
Aivazovsky, by the way, is predominantly populated by Russians.
Incidentally, while former Politburo member Heydar Aliyev accused
any Armenian who sought the return of Karabagh and Nakhichevan
as reactionary and nationalist, Nikita Khrushchov, an ethnic
Ukrainian, annexed Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 and no one accused him
of nationalism. Of course, at that time, border adjustments within
the Soviet Union did not have the same political significance as they
will have today because the Russian Black Sea fleet is based in Crimea.
A hostile neighbor with a potential of joining NATO will certainly
irritate policy planners in Moscow, compelling them to take remedial
action now before any further deterioration of the situation. That
reaction may lead the country into a partition.
Political analyst Igor Muradian believes that “there will
be actual federalization while maintaining Ukraine as a single
internationally-recognized state and at the same time, the issue of the
state budget, utilities and mobility of the people, foreign relations,
army and law enforcement agencies will be addressed. At the same time,
the process of separating Crimea from Ukraine will begin, which is
apparently inevitable.”
There are striking parallels between Ukraine and Armenia, especially
since both made their U-turn to join Russia’s Customs Union, at the
same time interrupting their negotiations with the EU, ostensibly
under Russian pressure.
Before these events, Moscow had pledged $15 billion worth of aid to
Ukraine. Now the new leaders believe that Ukraine needs $60-70 billion
to avoid an economic collapse, it is doubtful if Moscow will abide
by its early pledge. The US and EU have made some vague promises,
which may or may not meet the expectations of the new leaders.
In Armenia, there is no love lost for the Russians who are increasingly
treating the country in a cavalier manner. Armenian political groups
organized a solidarity unit with Maidan and even travelled to Kiev
to support the protestors.
Political pundits are comparing the March 1, 2008 Armenian
demonstrations which claimed 10 lives with Kiev’s Maidan.
All opposition parties are wishing and trying to enact the repeat
performance of Maidan in Armenia. Fortunately, or unfortunately,
the opposition is so splintered that no two groups can agree on
any common ground. The well-oiled media is entirely financed by
foreign governments and agencies and they are trying hard to incite
anti-Russian sentiments. Armenia’s well-being is the least of their
worries. They finance the media for their own selfish purposes. Many
starving journalists are serving these foreign agencies for their
own survival, oblivious of their cumulative impact on the fate of
the country.
Any veteran or novice in politics there begins his rhetoric with calls
for regime change. But modern history has demonstrated time and again
that any change will only rout one set of oligarchs and bring new
ones to power.
Corruption is endemic in all former Soviet republics. No country in
the region can remain sanitized as long as they continue their former
economic and business relations with each other.
Georgia, the most Western-oriented state in the Caucasus, had trumpeted
loudly that it had eradicated corruption under Mikheil Saakashvili,
that the rule of law had become paramount. Former Prime Minister
Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream Party rose to power, and last
week former Prime Minister Ivane Merabishvili was sentence to a
five-year prison term for corruption.
The Orange Revolution had catapulted Yulia Timoshenko to power in
Ukraine and she landed in jail for corruption. Even Greece, the cradle
of democracy and civilization, and a member of the European Union,
is plagued with corruption. This means that association with Europe
alone is not a panacea.
Corruption is a genuine cause for concern in Armenia. It has to be
criticized. It has to be eradicated, but only for its own sake so that
the lives of its people improve and not in order to feed the agenda
of foreign powers who have a vested interest in Armenia without a
strong central government.
Events in Ukraine shook the world and its echoes reverberate more
in Armenia, having the same predicament. But a repeat performance of
Maidan will only bring chaos.
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
