IF THEY WASH AWAY THEIR HANDS
Europe’s reaction to Serzh Sargsyan’s statement on joining the Customs
Union indicates that Brussels is uncertain and is trying to orient.
First, several diplomats announced that Armenia has actually blocked
the perspective of the association process. Then the European
Commission stated that the Association Agreement and DCFTA are
compatible with integration with the CIS and Europe is awaiting
explanations from Armenia. In other words, a window is left open
for Yerevan.
Of course, it will be strange that Europe does not know what to
do. It is even hard to believe it. Was the Brussels so ingenuous to
cooperate with Serzh Sargsyan without keeping in mind the possibility
of a U-turn and accordingly a scenario of further actions? Didn’t it
occur to them that Serzh Sargsyan may deceive or let them down?
Although, they would hardly have thought about it. Withholding
significant funding and postponing the donor conference is evidence
to lack of confidence.
So why doesn’t Europe speak clearly? What explanations does it await
from Armenia? The impression is that Europe wants to forgive Armenia
and is therefore demanding explanation. Like a teacher who wants
to give a satisfactory mark to a student but asks him to utter at
least something.
As of now, it is hard to imagine what Armenia is going to explain.
Another question is which part of this explanation is going to be
public. It is noticed, however, that Europe needs to evaluate the
situation for itself, either it puts up with Armenia’s capitulation
or continues to work towards liberating Armenia from Russian dominate.
A more global and important issue has come up beyond more petty
relations with the Armenian government – the issue of methodology and
tools of working with Armenia. Inefficiency of the former ones has
come out or they have been exhausted, and Europe needs new approaches
and partners.
>From this point of view, it is equal with Russia. In other words,
the Russian methodology and toolkit in dealing with Armenia, Russia’s
partners are not any more effective and successful. Moreover, Europe,
the West, has an advantage.
The problem is that Moscow’s huge starting advantage play down the
West’s technological advantages. Russia defeated the West in Armenia
not due to technology used presently but starting advantages.
This is the key problem for Europe. In Armenia Europe or the West
was let down not only by the government or opposition individuals
on who they bet. As a partner, most public groups failed because
the produced public effect of efforts for a wider awareness of the
Euro-Atlantic values in Armenia was weak vis-a-vis the used resources.
In this regard, the clarification of the Armenian government is a
secondary issue for Europe or it is not the most important one. The
West may need it for tactical issues but the West needs its own
clarifications from the point of view of strategy.
Why is it so important for Armenia?
If the West gives up the race for Armenia, it will further aggravate
the consequences of September 3. In this case, Russia will achieve
dominance and may allow annual or quarterly change of government
in Armenia just for fun but will never allow a change of system and
thinking. It will be helped by about two dozens of forces who will
be ready to stand in line in the Kremlin corridors for hours for the
sake of help.
In case the West continues the race, notwithstanding September 3, be it
in economy, sports or politics, it may ensure positive developments. At
the same time, competition implies challenge, risk and danger. However,
the lack of competition does not imply risk but lack of options.
Hakob Badalyan 14:17 06/09/2013 Story from Lragir.am News: