Kviris Palitra, Georgia
Sept 9 2013
Is Ivanishvili Leaving in Order To Call Former Government to Justice?
The following is the text of Giorgi Kvitashvili’s interview with
political analyst Soso Tsiskarishvili
If you want to find out which subject is topical in Georgia, you
should take a taxi. You are in trouble if the taxi driver learns that
you are a journalist because you will have to listen to his political
observations, as well as questions and conclusions, before you get to
the destination point: Are things ever going to get better for us?
However, sometimes even our “political experts” driving taxis make
very accurate observations. A taxi driver recently told yours truly:
“I have been a driver since my childhood years and I can look at
Ivanishvili’s move (whether the prime minister will quit politics or
not is the main subject discussed by the Georgian taxi drivers) from a
driver’s perspective. Imagine driving uphill in mud and there is still
a long way to go but the driver suddenly opens the door and jumps out
of a moving car. The car left without a driver will either hit a tree
or fall off a cliff.” This could be a mere joke but the public does
fear that Ivanishvili’s resignation at this point will, in fact, leave
the country in the condition of a car that is moving fast without a
driver. We spoke to political analyst Soso Tsiskarishvili about these
and other topical issues.
[Tsiskarishvili] I am convinced that a reasonable person like Bidzina
Ivanishvili will make sure to end the speculations as to what might
happen after he quits politics. The prime minister also wrote in his
most recent [open] letter about the prerequisites for his quitting
politics. I believe that Ivanishvili will not take this step in the
near future.
[Kvitashvili] What do you mean by “near future”: Several months, a
year, or two years?
[Tsiskarishvili] If Bidzina Ivanishvili has Superman’s qualities and
can do two or three years’ work in two months, I can only wish him
good luck. Based on Ivanishvili’s letter, I would say that two or
three months will not be enough to achieve the results that he wants
to achieve before quitting politics.
[Kvitashvili] So, Ivanishvili’s statement that he would definitely
quit politics before the New Year was a mere metaphor?
[Tsiskarishvili] Ivanishvili did not specify which particular New Year
he was referring to.
[Kvitashvili] So, do you think that the prime minister will not take
this step before 1 January 2014?
[Tsiskarishvili] Let us hope that he will not.
[Kvitashvili] Why cannot Ivanishvili specify that he will not quit
politics before 1 January 2014? His statements regarding his intention
to resign before the New Year keep business in uncertainty and
contribute considerably to the lack of investment, while also causing
public anxiety and preventing the country from achieving stability.
[Tsiskarishvili] I agree with you. We Georgians are generally strange
people and our billionaires are no exception. I do not want anyone to
think that I am arguing that Ivanishvili will not quit politics before
1 January 2014. I am only suggesting and hoping that it will be so. We
can also discuss a different theory whereby Ivanishvili will resign as
prime minister before 1 January 2014. This theory is reinforced by the
statements by Georgian Dream presidential candidate Giorgi
Margvelashvili.
[Kvitashvili] Which statements?
[Tsiskarishvili] Margvelashvili has emphasized in every speech of his
that cohabitation [between Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition and
President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement] will end in
Georgia 27 October. Could this mean that the restoration of justice
that the Georgian people have been dreaming of will finally begin,
albeit with a year’s delay? If they start bringing charges against
former officials in Georgia, the West will not be able to criticize
Ivanishvili because he will no longer hold the office. The new
president and the new prime minister will assume the responsibility
and Georgian Dream could acquire greater freedom in terms of the
restoration of justice. In short, according to this theory,
Ivanishvili could resign this December. However, he will change his
decision to quit politics if some signs of danger appear in the
country.
[Kvitashvili] This means that Ivanishvili is resigning in order to
call the former government to justice. However, signs of danger could
appear, could they not? Could we face the threat that Ivanishvili’s
resignation will be followed by uncontrolled or controlled chaos with
all its implications?
[Tsiskarishvili] The country could, indeed, face the danger of chaos
after Ivanishvili quits politics. However, this should not be a matter
of speculation. I will only say one thing: It all depends on the mood
of Georgian Dream’s members. Some of them are indifferent towards the
question of Ivanishvili’s quitting politics today. Some of them are
very afraid, while others are trying to foresee their own place in the
future political alignment.
[Kvitashvili] To sum up, we can discuss two theories today. The first
one is that, for various reasons, Ivanishvili will not quit politics
before 1 January 2014, while the second one suggests that the prime
minister will resign two months after the presidential election, so
that a large-scale process of restoration of justice can begin in the
country. Another question also arises here: Why can the restoration of
justice not begin while Ivanishvili is still prime minister?
[Tsiskarishvili] Ivanishvili has drawn more criticism both
domestically and abroad than he had heard during his entire life.
Consequently, he believes that he does not deserve this criticism and
he wants to take a break. It would be unfair and ungrateful to
begrudge him this. He managed to do what no one else had been able to
achieve during the preceding nine years: He changed the Saakashvili
regime through elections. We need to find the strength to contribute
to the country’s revival. I am convinced that Ivanishvili wants what
is best for the country and I do not believe that he will leave
Georgia at some point. If he agrees with the civil society’s
democratic principles, he will be very successful in that field as
well. However, Ivanishvili will remain a target of criticism if the
government and Georgian Dream continue to coordinate every single
matter with him.
[Kvitashvili] Let us look at the matter from our fellow citizens’
perspective. Let us put it straight: The majority of the people do not
believe that the government will be able to cope with the challenges
without Ivanishvili. The people fear that chaos will begin in Georgia
once it loses its “head.” The people who voted personally for
Ivanishvili 1 October 2012 expect the simplest of things from him: To
sort things out in the country and to create guarantees of stability.
They do not mind if he takes a break afterward.
[Tsiskarishvili] Certainly, theoretically, there are reasons for this
kind of concern. However, it is also clear that Ivanishvili is not
planning to leave Georgia and the new prime minister will be someone
associated with him. If we discuss the theoretical threat of chaos in
Georgia, Georgian Dream will have the levers for declaring a state of
emergency. However, I am convinced that, by the time Ivanishvili quits
politics, there will be no political force in Georgia that will need
chaos as a means of self-preservation.
[Kvitashvili] There are, however, the special services of neighbouring
countries.
[Tsiskarishvili] The special services of neighbouring countries will
not stop their operations regardless of who the prime minister is or
how many Ivanishvilis there are in Georgia. We should therefore be
ready for these challenges and we hopefully will be.
[Kvitashvili] I would like to ask you about the statement that
Ivanishvili made in response to a journalist’s question at the last
week’s press conference. He said that he would not rule out the
possibility of Georgia joining the Eurasian Union. This statement
triggered such a stir that the prime minister had to explain himself
the next day and say that the pro-Western course remains the keystone
of Georgia’s foreign policy.
[Tsiskarishvili] Russia’s political circles showed a strong interest
in this statement by Ivanishvili and I became convinced that it was
not by chance that Ivanishvili was asked about the Eurasian Union at
the press conference. I am convinced that the stir that you mentioned
was not entirely accidental.
[Kvitashvili] Who planned it, the Russians?
[Tsiskarishvili] I would not rule out the possibility that this stir
was, in fact, planned by Russia. There is a strong aspiration in
Russia to see Georgia join the Eurasian Union. Incidentally, they also
had a teleconference at [Russian news agency] RIA Novosti ‘s office 6
September in which I participated. The Russian side was represented by
Sergey Glazyev, Vladimir Putin’s adviser on post-Soviet integration,
as well as members of the State Duma and the Public Chamber. The
Russians were happy about Armenia’s decision to join the Customs Union
(official Yerevan signed an agreement on joining the common customs
area of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan a few days ago). However, I
told them that information about the mood in Yerevan arrives in
Tbilisi before it reaches Moscow. At the time when we were discussing
this, protest rallies against the Customs Union were taking place in
Yerevan. The Russians lectured us on why Georgia should join the
Eurasian Union and one of the arguments they cited was that our
country supposedly needs the “benefits” of this Customs Union. We also
discovered there that this Customs Union is managed by the Eurasian
Union’s economic collaboration commission, which is a telling fact by
itself. Incidentally, Putin’s adviser claimed that Georgia is already
participating in the Eurasian Union’s work because it uses the Customs
Union’s system and tariffs in its trade relations with Kazakhstan and
Belarus. The next question that was discussed was whether Russia is a
trustworthy partner even within this Customs Union. My argument turned
out to be inconvenient for the Russians. I told them that the Georgian
Government had agreed to Russia’s accession to the World Trade
Organization and Moscow was supposed to supply Tbilisi with
information about the turnover of goods on the Abkhazia and South
Ossetia sections of Georgian-Russian border. Several years have passed
but Russia is yet to meet this condition.
Incidentally, the Russians want Azerbaijan to join the Eurasian Union
along with Armenia. I told the Russian side’s representatives that
Moscow had blackmailed Armenia with the Karabakh question. They are
doing the same to Azerbaijan and then they are surprised why, having
seen this, the Georgian Government does not go begging to the Kremlin.
[Kvitashvili] We all probably remember what methods Russia used to
make us join the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] because the
attitude towards this organization in Georgia in the early 1990s was
the same as towards the Eurasian Union now. Could history repeat
itself and will the Kremlin try to force us to join the Eurasian
Union?
[Tsiskarishvili] In order to prevent this, we need to constantly
remind the public of what you just said. We discussed earlier whether
Ivanishvili will leave or not. It is possible that the theory that we
discussed is groundless and there is an entirely different reason. I
would not rule out the possibility that Ivanishvili’s decision to quit
politics is linked to the reports that they could demand that he take
this step.
[Kvitashvili] Do you mean that Russia will demand that Ivanishvili
bring Georgia into the Eurasian Union?
[Tsiskarishvili] Yes, it is possible that Ivanishvili has information
that Russia will demand in the near or distant future that he bring
Georgia into the Eurasian Union. This could be the reason for his
decision to quit politics.
[Kvitashvili] What kinds of levers can they use against Ivanishvili?
[Tsiskarishvili] These could be business levers, political levels,
personal relations, threats, or blackmail. There were reports in
Georgia about preparations for terrorist attacks against Ivanishvili.
They can always find thugs willing to do this in the country. You
should therefore refrain from judging the person who has access to a
lot of information. Ivanishvili once told me that he has independent
sources of information in a lot of countries and it was only in
Georgia that he could not find time to follow the media. So, you
should not assume that this person has a lack of information from any
of the countries that are important for Georgia.
[Kvitashvili] Once Ivanishvili resigns, why can Russia not demand that
Margvelashvili (in the event of his victory in the presidential
election) or prime minister X, whom Ivanishvili names as his
successor, bring Georgia into the Eurasian Union?
[Tsiskarishvili] Because Margvelashvili did not build his business in
Russia and did not live there for many years. The Russians probably
believe that it will be easier for them to discuss the Eurasian Union
with Bidzina Ivanishvili. However, Ivanishvili considers it
categorically unacceptable to start this discussion.
[Kvitashvili] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigoriy Karasin
complained last week that the new Georgian Government does not want to
restore relations with Russia.
[Tsiskarishvili] The fact that Georgia has not restored diplomatic
relations with Russia is a source of inconvenience for the latter. Yet
the fact is that it was Georgia that proposed warming of relations
between the two countries. Diplomatic relations will not be restored
for obvious reasons.
[Kvitashvili] Armenian Security Council Secretary Artur Baghdasaryan
made a strange statement last week. He said that the Georgian,
Russian, and Abkhazian sides had agreed to reopen the railroad
[linking Armenia with Russia through Georgian territory]. The Georgian
Government denied this. However, experts still voiced suspicions that
some secret deal could have been made behind our backs.
[Tsiskarishvili] This was a propaganda statement for Armenia’s
internal audience. Protests against the Customs Union are taking place
in Yerevan, so they tried to please their people with the railroad
question and make them happy by announcing that they would have direct
railroad link with Russia.
[Translated from Georgian]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
