APRIL 9 AUTOPSY: BAREVOLUTION MOVEMENT FORKS AT INAUGURATION DAY WATERSHED
ANALYSIS | 10.04.13 | 14:43
NAZIK ARMENAKYAN
ArmeniaNow
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
April 9, the day that saw the inauguration of President Serzh Sargsyan
for a second term and marked the culmination of opposition protests
against his election victory, ended without victims unlike similar
events five years ago when 10 people were killed in unrest.
Major clashes between protesters and riot police could be avoided not
least due to the experience the opposition got in 2008. Nevertheless,
the day of ‘dueling inaugurations’ during which leader of the
“Barevolution” (Hello Revolution) movement Raffi Hovannisian celebrated
‘people’s victory’ ushering in a ‘new Armenia’, also revealed several
circumstances to be reckoned with.
First: there is a ‘pre-revolutionary’ situation in Armenia, which
may turn violent at any moment. And this situation is caused equally
by falling living standards of the population and lack of justice,
the monopolization of power, electoral fraud and the inability to
change the government through elections.
Sargsyan himself acknowledged that a large part of the Armenian society
is not satisfied with the work of the government as he accepted its
resignation on Tuesday (which is a requirement of the Constitution that
he do so after assuming power). Still, he said that the government
was going in the right direction, which shows he is unlikely to
make any drastic changes in its composition. After taking an oath
of presidency Sargsyan also committed himself to solving social and
economic problems and developing democracy in Armenia.
After being sworn in for his second and last five-year term as
president Sargsyan thanked citizens who voted for him, as well as
those who did not. “I also thank those who cast their votes for other
candidates. Thereby they expressed their discontent with the problems
existing in the country. By doing so, they sent a clear message to
the authorities, demanding more efficient work. Rest assured that
all messages are duly received,” said the Armenian president.
The second circumstance that the April 9 events revealed is that the
opposition is not a single organism and that Hovannisian may not quite
be in control of the situation. After a direct clash could be avoided
in Baghramyan Avenue, where heavy police cordons had been put up,
Hovannisian, accompanied by Chief of Police Vladimir Gasparyan, led
some of his supporters away from the boulevard where the Presidential
Palace is located, to the Genocide Memorial at Tsitsernakaberd, which
is just off the city center. But some of the protesters remained
in Baghramyan Avenue. Another ex-presidential candidate, Andrias
Ghukasyan, declared a sitting strike there, but he was taken to the
police station where he was briefly detained.
This development made it patently clear that some of the protesters
do not listen to Hovannisian’s orders or appeals and allow for more
radical methods of struggle. Still at the opposition rally on April 5
Ghukasyan was calling for ‘besieging’ the Sport and Concert Complex,
where Sargsyan’s inauguration was to take place, and staying there
until “the demands of the people” were met. The Heritage party leader
did not agree with such a scenario, but subsequent events have shown
there is a group of people in Armenia who are willing and ready to
act outside ‘non-violent’ methods of struggle.
The third circumstance is, perhaps, that the current authorities
could manage the situation without making a single step to meet the
protesters’ demands half way. Such behavior only reassured more
protesters that no one was going to give up power voluntarily as
Hovannisian had tried to assure his supporters would happen during
weeks of post-election protests.
Hovannisian has scheduled his next rally in Yerevan for April 12 to
present the election bloc contesting next month’s Yerevan polls. Many
doubt, however, that the hardliners who did not follow Hovannisian to
Tsitsernakaberd and stayed in Baghramyan Avenue on April 9 and those
who were disappointed with the opposition leader’s decisions would
turn out for this gathering, which is likely to close the February
18 presidential election page and shift attention fully to the local
race in Yerevan.