Israel, America and Turkey

Israel, America and Turkey

A useful first step

Warmer American relations with Israel help to end its Turkish tiff

Mar 30th 2013 | ANKARA AND JERUSALEM |From the print edition
FOR the first time in years, the whiff of a wind of change is wafting
through Israel’s diplomatic air, thanks to Barack Obama’s recent
visit. The message the American president imparted was that he is
determined in his final term to have another go at making peace
between Jews and Arabs in the Middle East. Though full of the usual
bromides, his speech to a gathering of young Israelis percolated down
to the undecided centre of Israeli politics, where distrust for Mr
Obama – and for Palestinians – has been strong. The American president may
have persuaded at least some such Israelis to ponder again the need
for a Palestinian state.

The trip’s more tangible result, however, was Mr Obama’s apparent
success in persuading Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, to
apologise at last to Turkey for the death of nine Turks killed by
Israeli commandos in 2010 stopping a flotilla of Turkish boats from
reaching Gaza.

`Israelis love Turkey,’ declares the blurb of an Israeli package-tour
operator, hoping to promote the resort of Antalya once again as
Israel’s favourite tourist destination. On the strength of Mr
Netanyahu’s apology, he may be onto a winner.

Just before Mr Obama flew out of Israel, he handed Mr Netanyahu his
telephone to speak to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister.
After nearly four years of estrangement, America’s two most powerful
and closest allies in the Middle East agreed to co-operate again. Once
Israel’s compensation to the Turks has been settled, diplomatic
relations will be restored.

Both sides have much to gain. Israel hopes Mr Erdogan will rescue it
from its isolation since the downfall of friendly regional autocrats,
in particular in Egypt. The two countries may now be able to share
copious amounts of natural gas recently found in the eastern
Mediterranean. They should resume co-operation in military
intelligence. And Israelis may soon again enjoy those tours. Even when
relations were at their nadir, military sales continued, as did
foreign trade worth $3 billion a year.

All the same, the Israeli-Turkish strategic relationship is unlikely
to be wholly restored, not least because of Mr Erdogan’s sharp tongue.
A month ago he called Zionism `a crime against humanity’, so
threatening to ruin America’s bridge-building. `The 1990s are over,’
says Nimrod Goren, an Israeli academic who kept open a discreet
channel when even Turkish and Israeli spies refused to exchange words.

And a host of regional issues may yet prise them apart. Mr Netanyahu
will turn a deaf ear to Mr Erdogan’s call for Israel to vacate East
Jerusalem and the West Bank and to open up Gaza entirely. In his
written apology, Mr Netanyahu said he would ease restrictions on
supplies to that Palestinian coastal strip ruled by Hamas. But Israel
seems bent on keeping up its blockade by air and sea, which first
prompted Turkey’s flotilla to try to get there.

Meanwhile Mr Erdogan’s party people hailed the apology as a big
victory. `We stood firm and brought them to their knees,’ tweeted a
young party activist. Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, cut
short a trip to Poland to bask in credit back home. Turkish newspapers
announced that Mr Erdogan was planning a triumphal visit to Gaza, not
least to see a new hospital being built by the Turks.

Unless Mr Erdogan softens his rhetoric, a showdown with Israel could
easily recur. Moreover, Turkey’s prime minister is likely to rebuff Mr
Netanyahu’s request to help persuade Iran to drop its nuclear
ambitions. Israel has had to discount hopes that the Turks would let
its fighter aircraft fly over its territory. And it has so far failed
to convince the Turks that Iran is close to getting a bomb. `Even if
it could,’ says Alon Liel, an Israeli ex-ambassador to Ankara, `Turkey
doesn’t believe it is the target.’

At least over Syria there may be scope for co-operation. After months
of hesitation, Israel now agrees with Turkey that President Bashar
Assad must go. Both Israel and Turkey agree that al-Qaeda should be
prevented from reaping the fruits of Mr Assad’s fall. Israel, says Mr
Liel, might even endorse Syria’s takeover by a Western-leaning
Islamist government – at any rate, if it were modelled on Turkey’s.

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21574541-warmer-american-relations-israel-help-end-its-turkish-tiff-useful-first