PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: PERFORMANCE IN AN EMPTY HALL
by David Stepanyan
Wednesday, January 23, 15:22
The key trends in upcoming presidential election in Armenia are
the statements by some candidates that the election outcome is
predetermined, which sounds like hysteria and political absurd.
However, like “a fly in the ointment of the Republican Party”, the
other candidates could spoil the presidential election scheduled for
February 18…
Eights candidates are currently running for president of Armenia
instead of the initial 15: Incumbent president Serzh Sargsyan, former
prime minister Hrant Bagratyan from the Liberty Party. Leader of the
Union for National Self-Determination Party Paruyr Hayrikyan, Leader
of Heritage Party Raffi Hovannisian, Advisor for Political Issues
of the Refugees and the International Law Civil Society Network,
ex-foreign minister of NKR Arman Melikyan, Leader of National Accord
Party Aram Haroutiunyan, political expert Andrias Ghukasyan, and
unemployed Vardan Sedrakyan.
This poor list of candidates makes the Armenian public think that
the election is non-competitive and the incumbent president is in
the lead in the presidential race, for he has enough administrative,
information, financial and other resources to retain power.
It is noteworthy that the authorities have already introduced the
scenario and the outcome of the election in figures with help of
Aharon Adibekyan, head of the Sociometer Research Center. Thus,
in line with that scenario, there will be one round of election and
Serzh Sargsyan will enlist the support of at least 72% of voters. The
previous elections show that Sociometer has turned into a bureau of
faultless political forecasts supported by the leading participants
in the political processes. It is noteworthy that another department
where David Copperfield’s fans are working has emerged in the country:
Department for Visas and Passports of the Armenian Police. According
to the given department, the number of voters in Armenia has grown
amid growing migration, when dozens of thousands of citizens leave
Armenia every year. Thus, on the eve of the parliamentary elections in
May 2012 the electoral registers comprised 2,485,844 people, while the
preliminary number of voters as of Jan 6 2013 grew by 25,053 people.
In conditions when political heavyweights, Armenian National
Congress, ARFD and Prosperous Armenia parties, and ex-presidents
Robert Kocharyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan refused to run for president,
the ruling Republican Party of Armenia can easily make president not
only the experienced politician Serzh Sargsyan, but also anyone. As a
result, after election the president-elect will get a full legitimacy
that was under question after March 1 2008. However, the political
influence will obviously weaken as a result of the above forces’
refusal to participate in the election. The Republicans headed by
Sargsyan already have to persuade the public that the election is
competitive. The situation is delicate because most voters support
those who refused to run for president and will hardly vote for the
Republican candidate just because the so-called opposition does not
run for president. That is why the forecasts of sociologists and
some politicians are far from severe reality, because the 3/4 of the
citizens cannot support corrupt officials, oligarchs and monopolists
and impunity and outrage in the country.
Nevertheless, it is obvious that the stereotypes developed in the
mentality of the citizens over the long years of political processes
in the country cannot be changed easily. Negligence towards public
will and prevention of fair elections has led the people into a
deep apathy and disappointment. And even the hunger strike of a
candidate for president Andrias Ghukasyan, who demands the CEC to
cancel registration of the incumbent president Serzh Sargsyan, has
remained without a response by the Armenian public that has become
absolutely indifferent to everything taking place in the political
area. Such negligence is characteristic mainly to authoritarian and
totalitarian countries because elections are not an answer to any of
the questions the public is really concerned about.
Incidentally, even against the background of the above-mentioned,
there is a way out, which by 100% finds room in the Constitution.
Except the RPA member Sargsyan, all the rest 7 candidates for president
come forward like the opposition and the enemies of the incumbent
power. Stemming from this logic, the only way for the so-called
oppositionists to prevent the victory of the candidate from the
power may be the refusal of candidates to take part in the process,
which they themselves call farce. In that case, Serzh Sargsyan will
remain the only actor on the scene, on which the authorities have
been again performing a tragi-comical farce called the presidential
election. And in that case, the authors of this farce have to work
hard so that to return the candidates, or to create new candidates
for the election. However, in both cases they will be forced to spend
much money on delivery of the true power levers, re-distribution
of the influence spheres and the pieces of the economic pie. This
will undoubtedly result in the domino effect and at least cracks in
the ice coated political reality. However, for such development of
events, we have to look for something that these 7 candidates lack:
at least conscious, political responsibility and aspiration to act
not in favor of their own interests but in favor of the interests of
their own people. Against such a background, the Armenian voter will
have only one hope that the incumbent as well as future president of
Armenia will display the above-mentioned accomplishments.
From: A. Papazian