Armenia Will Get New Territories In Case of War
Igor Muradyan
12:23 29/12/2012
Story from Lragir.am News:
Frustrations of 2013
In 2013, there will not be cardinal changes in global politics but
there will be enough developments which will act as forerunners of a
lot more new in the nearest future.
The Central Asia will witness escalation of confrontations. Perhaps
attempts of an armed conflict between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will
be made which will question CSTO’s viability. Most probably, it will
become known that besides economic activities China comes up also with
political initiatives. Most probably, efforts will be made to involve
Russia in an armed regional conflict. This situation will not
facilitate rapprochement of the positions of Russia and the United
States but both powers will be more active in counteracting to China’s
policy. Soon, it will become known that China is able to offer more
progressive and effective ways of cooperation and achievement of
security to the states of Central Asia. Russia and Iran will come to
terms on restriction of radical movements in the region.
The South Caucasus will set to stop Turkey’s expansion, and Georgia
will take an active part in this strategy. Isolation and subordination
of Azerbaijan to the interests of the United States, Israel and the
European community will intensify. Iran will launch a large-scale
policy of fragmentation and liquidation of the Azerbaijani state,
causing escalation of the confrontation between Iran and Turkey with
an active participation of Israel and Saudi. The second war in
Karabakh will not begin but Azerbaijan will come closer to the
possibility of resumption of war. Ethnic and regional problems will
actualize in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which will be brought up to the
international arena. There will be an attempt of revenge in Georgian
internal processes. The present leaders of Georgia and Azerbaijan will
try to regroup the ruling teams, causing serious domestic political
conflicts. Armenia will try to set up a new political party – the
national conservative party. The Armenian grand party will announce
about its dissolution. Armenia will put forth a new factor in defense.
In the Balkans there will be attempts of national-territorial
demarcations, there will be a new balance of forces. The United States
will activate Turkey’s role in the Balkans which will cause concerns
not only in the countries of the region but also the EU, France and
Germany. In Bulgaria nationalist parties and movements will grow
radical.
France and Germany will overcome controversies and come up with new
positions on European and regional policies, facilitate the
development of NATO but will insist on their interests in Eastern
Europe, Africa and China. Both leading European powers will stress the
European positions in the South Caucasus. The Frank-British alliance
will not be strengthened, and France will prefer NATO to pursue its
ambitions. France will move towards the rightist ideology. The
economic problems of the European Union may not be resolved but will
be approbated, and new approaches will be offered. France, Germany,
Poland and Greece will play a more important role in the integration
of Armenia with NATO, as well as the European Union. France will play
the role of provider of Armenia in NATO with the support of other
states.
Russia will remain in a serious political-administrative crisis, new
political groups will emerge, and experiments of redesign of
territorial administration will be carried out. Russia will beware of
involvement in regional armed conflicts, and it will activate its
foreign policy. A new government will be formed, the role of the
military will grow to offset the role of the Federal Security Service.
Russia will try to establish new relations in the South Caucasus,
conducting a policy of balance of forces and equal distance from
partners, which will end in total failure of its intentions. The
relations between Russia and Armenia will be normalized by the end of
the year, after the culmination of the crisis of their relations in
spring and summer. Russia will try to establish relationships with the
United States and Europe over political issues in Eastern Europe and
Central Asia, and there is no confidence that Russia’s attempts will
succeed but, one way or another, the format will be limited. The
Eurasian project will be forgotten but CSTO will be strengthened, and
the importance of the political component will grow. There will be
dramatic developments in Ukraine, the country’s territorial integrity
will be threatened, which will be a catastrophe for Europe.
Nevertheless, Russia will not accelerate those developments.
The United States will carry on its regional and global strategies,
pursuing consolidation of states located beyond North Atlantics around
NATO. The United States will not accelerate developments in the Near
East, preferring initiatives of the regional states, thus reducing its
responsibility for processes and developments. The United States will
intervene more actively in threats of more or less significant
military conflicts. The problems of Pakistan and Afghanistan will not
be resolved, the United States will boost arms supply to India. The
United States will, most probably, review stylistics and approaches of
its policy on Iran, which will demonstrate again steadiness of the
ruling regime and at the same time readiness for improvement of
relations with the United States. The Americans will continue the
policy of blocking and restraining Turkey, at the same time
facilitating radicalization of the political situation, including
political Islam in Turkey. In the South Caucasus the United States
will build up on its current strategy of establishment of the format
of the balance of forces and profiles of partnership functions. The
relations between the United States and Russia will be normalized, and
there will be certain agreements but not on regional issues. In the
regions, confrontations will continue. The United States and Russia
will help unblock the Abkhazian railway.
In the Near East there will be a series of military-political
conflicts. Turkey will try to get the support of Egypt and Saudi but
will encounter resistance of Arabs in its efforts to strengthen its
positions in the region. In Syria stability will be more or less
established, the radical groups will continue their actions but will
be cracked down. The West and Russia, as well as China will agree on
the procedure and rules of overcoming chaos and failure of states. No
radical or even moderate Shariah regime will be established in Syria.
The Shiite part of Iraq will enter into a close alliance with Iran,
which will lead to practical split of Iraq. Most probably, a
legitimate process of Kurdish state building will start observing the
conditions and interests of multiple sides. The unprecedented arms
race will continue, the states of the region will obtain modern arms.
Israel will have to adapt to the new political conditions, first of
all the policy of the United States on the region. There will be
attempts of increasing the role of the European Union in the region.
The United States will try to work out new approaches to the policy on
Turkey, including in the framework of certain agreements with the
leading European states but, most probably, the stance and policy of
the United States on Turkey will remain the same.
Thus, 2013 will be a favorable year for Armenia, and if by the end of
the year signs of a war with Azerbaijan occur, it will mark the
beginning of new borders in the East, Armenia will get new territories
to the east of the Sevan mountains and beyond the valley of the Arax
River, possibly up to the Caspian Sea. I wish you all a happy New
Year.