KOCHARYAN’S DECISION
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
22:14 24/12/2012
First everyone was waiting for Gagik Tsarukyan’s decision regarding
the presidential election. Now everyone is waiting for Levon
Ter-Petrosyan’s decision on the presidential election. In fact, it
is not important and has never been. It is important to know what
Robert Kocharyan will decide not only on the presidential election
but also on his further role in politics.
Nobody is waiting for Kocharyan’s decision but it would at least
be worth waiting because Tsarukyan’s and especially Ter-Petrosyan’s
decisions are not needed by anyone any more.
Robert Kocharyan again won Ter-Petrosyan, this time not by force but
by chess, by sitting, planning and maybe also wiretapping.
Now all Ter-Petrosyan can do is to justify his likelihood for
cooperation with Kocharyan by lectures on pragmatism being beyond
values and ideas.
If this is so, it is a myth that Levon Ter-Petrosyan is the most
pragmatic person in Armenia. He cannot compare to Kocharyan. Kocharyan
only needed to have Ter-Petrosyan step out of the field of values and
ideas where Ter-Petrosyan had a short-term advantage almost burying
Kocharyan’s political future.
The second president was able to stand up and gradually push
Ter-Petrosyan out of the field of values and ideas. In addition, it was
not difficult for Kocharyan because Ter-Petrosyan was already starting
to feel uneasy in the field of ideas and values and was already missing
pragmatism. Moreover, further developments indicated that Ter-Petrosyan
had chosen the field of values and ideas as a tool, not as a belief.
Therefore, it took only one step from joke to cooperation with
Kocharyan.
Having brought him to the field of pragmatism, Kocharyan was able to
defeat him without any effort, by his nature. Hence, he got rid of his
“blood ally”.
Now neither Ter-Petrosyan’s nor Robert Kocharyan’s decision is
important in terms of political development. All he can do is to enter
into the game during or after the election. After the election is more
possible because Kocharyan nevertheless has very serious problems. He
is deprived of the option of force majeure, Serzh Sargsyan has an
international “authorization” to do it with the help of the army
“legitimately”.
Hence, it is meaningless for Robert Kocharyan to take part in the
presidential election because he does not have sufficient resource
to impose any result on Serzh Sargsyan. Although it is obvious that
Serzh Sargsyan has an international authorization to use force,
and most probably it is for a long term, Kocharyan may think about
imparting the process with some force majeure notes, not personally
but by means of Ter-Petrosyan, pushing him to run in the election.
If Ter-Petrosyan does not do that, Kocharyan’s decision will most
probably be postponed because he needs to realign his resource, make
an inventory, as he likes to describe it. Kocharyan will either take
the PAP which will imply some agreement with Serzh Sargsyan or will
set up a new force preventing Serzh Sargsyan from doing it himself to
stage the transfer of power in 2017-2018. Kocharyan needs to remain an
influential factor in the next five years. It is one thing when Serzh
Sargsyan is reelected, and another thing when he has to pass power.
There is more jealousy in the government and Kocharyan gets more
opportunities for maneuver.
From: Baghdasarian