ATTACK ON IRAN MAY BRING FORTH ECONOMIC TROUBLES FOR WEST – ANALYSES
news.am
September 13, 2012 | 23:34
Armenian News-NEWS.am presents an article by an American professor
Robert Bruce Ware, which was posted on Antiwar.com website with
some extractions.
Kavkaz-2012 strategic military training exercise of Russia later this
month in the North Caucasus region may bring forth economic problems
for the West. This is because the exercise is strategically linked
to Russian expectations that Iran will be destabilized by the end of
this year. If Iran is destabilized, Russia will uphold its obligations
to Armenia under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Russia could cut a military corridor via the center of Georgia, and
take control of all oil and gas pipes leading to west from the rich
fields of the Caspian Sea. If this is combined with fighting in the
Persian Gulf, energy prices may sharply go up.
Russian officials claim that Kavkaz-2012 is a routine exercise,
and has no connection with events in other countries. They emphasize
that the exercise will occur exclusively on Russian territory and that
they deliberately excluded units from Russian military bases in South
Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Armenia. Armenia is a member of the CSTO and
will host from Sept. 3 to 8 the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Force
exercise “Interaction-2012.”
At the same time, Russian officials expect that Iran’s nuclear program
will be attacked by Israel or the U.S. till the end of this year. A
sustained Israeli or American attack will lead to serious instability
in the southern border of Armenia. Armenian supplies likely will be
cut, and Armenia may face a flow of refugees.
An attack on Iran probably will be followed by provocations in areas
disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan [Nagorno-Karabakh and territories
around it].
In case of instability in Iran, a Russian support to Armenia could
be motivated partially by CSTO obligations, along with humanitarian
concerns.