THE RIGHT TO WAR OR THE RIGHT TO PEACE
Monday, 02 July 2012 05:14
Will Azerbaijan have an adequate understanding of the situation?
Recently, the issue of war and peace has re-actualized in the Karabakh
conflict zone.
Many publications of the media comprise forecasts of analysts,
including international ones, on the increasing probability of
another war. Obviously, the wave of gloomy forecasts is caused by
the sharp rise in tension on the contact-line of the parties to the
conflict both in the Karabakh-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Azerbaijani
border areas. As we know, only in June, as a result of Azerbaijan’s
provocative actions, several bloody armed incidents took place, which
resulted in the deaths of over a dozen soldiers from both sides. In
addition to this, extra tension is caused by the militaristic rhetoric
of official Baku, which by all means tries to maintain the high degree
of the situation already heated up to a limit.
It is quite natural that the explosive situation created by Azerbaijan
causes well-founded fear of both the international mediators involved
in the Karabakh conflict settlement and the expert circles. It is no
accident that at the recent G-20 Summit in Mexico, the Presidents of
the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing states – Russia, the USA and France –
re-issued a joint statement, in which they once again reminded that
“the use of military force will not resolve the conflict”.
Will Baku listen to reason? Apparently, not. Recently, the General
Headquarters of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces has issued a statement
that “it will take 10 days to liberate the occupied territories and to
reach the Armenian-Iranian border”. Given the militaristic rhetoric of
Baku and its arms race, the British research center of Oxford Analitica
believes that Azerbaijan increases the volume of purchases of arms in
order to achieve operational readiness in 2014, threatening to start
a war, if by then no progress will be fixed in the negotiations. To a
certain extent, the British are echoed by well-known European Program
Director of the International Crisis Group Sabina Fraser who has
suggested that the June clashes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani
parties are risky in growing into a war in the region. We should also
add that the same research center of Oxford Analitica noted that,
in fact, the Azerbaijani army was not ready for a new war.
How real is a new war, and are there obvious prerequisites for it? To
answer this question, we should, perhaps, first of all consider the
actual geopolitical situation in our region. The beginning of the 90s,
when, after the collapse of the Soviet Union certain chaos occurred in
the South Caucasus and the world centers of power did not determine
yet their priority interests in the region, as a result of which
Azerbaijan could launch a war, without any control and punishment,
against self-determined Nagorno Karabakh, has already passed into the
history. The Karabakh conflict was long ago internationalized and went
beyond the purely regional one, or Azerbaijan’s peculiar monopoly
on it is over, especially after a failed attempt to re-subordinate
Karabakh. Today, Azerbaijan is trying to change the military balance
in its favor, however, official Baku should take into account that
now, when the interests of extra-regional political heavyweights
are present in the South Caucasus, its right to independent actions
becomes doubtful.
Exclusively all the experts state that in case of the war resumption
it will involve also other regional states, which is fraught with
very serious consequences, which means that Azerbaijan will hardly
be allowed to unleash it. After all, Armenia and Artsakh are not
sitting idly. In other words, the high risk of another war serves
also as a peculiar factor of its deterrence. However, sometimes you
can hear that Azerbaijan may use the probable war in Iran and start
large-scale military operations against the NKR. But, if the West
plans to give Azerbaijan the role of a military base for attacking
Iran, so under a similar development of situation it “shines” the
prospect of war on two fronts.
All the above mentioned about the unlikelihood of a new war, surely,
has the right to life, but by no means negates the necessity of taking
corresponding measures for preserving the balance of forces as an
important factor of maintaining stability in the region. The question
“to be or not to war?” is not rhetorical, but the most topical, and
first of all, surely, for Nagorno-Karabakh. This is testified also by
the fact that within the pre-election campaign started in the Nagorno
Karabakh Republic the issue of war and peace is always raised at the
meetings of the presidential candidates with the voters. Naturally,
Acting President Bako Sahakyan is asked this question more frequently.
At a recent meeting, the NKR President, speaking about the provocative
actions of Azerbaijan and the probability of resumption of the
full-scale combat operations, emphasized that in the previous war the
enemy’s ridge had been broken, and in case of a new war the enemy
would be defeated utterly. Will Azerbaijan take a risk of another
venture or will it have quite an adequate understanding of the possible
development of the situation fraught with high risks for itself? Let us
leave it upon the Baku authorities to make corresponding conclusions.
Leonid MARTIROSSIAN
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper