ARMENIA: IS A GENUINELY COMPETITIVE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COMING IN 2013?
EurasiaNet.org
June 5 2012
NY
It’s prudent always to expect the unexpected from a man who keeps
lions in his back yard.
Tycoon Gagik Tsarukian, the man with exotic pets, heads the Prosperous
Armenia Party, which finished with just under one-third of the vote
in Armenia’s May 6 parliamentary elections. A few days later, he
confounded Armenia’s political establishment with an announcement
that his party will not rejoin the governing coalition. Speculation
is now mounting in Yerevan that Tsarukian may potentially challenge
President Serzh Sargsyan in next year’s presidential election.
“Gagik Tsarukian now needs a rope-walker’s skills in order to balance
between both [government and opposition] spheres,” commented pollster
Aharon Adibekian, the director of Yerevan’s Sociometer Center.
Prosperous Armenia had been a junior member since 2007 in the governing
coalition, which is led by Sargsyan’s Republican Party. But on May 24,
Tsarukian declared that such a subservient role “is inexpedient for
the party.” He added that he is ready to suffer “losses” to “maintain
the people’s trust.”
By rejecting a coalition with the Republican Party, Prosperous Armenia,
which holds 37 of parliament’s 131 seats, loses portfolios for four
ministers, four deputy ministers, and a bevy of regional political
posts. Those positions often come in handy at election time, due to
the fact that they can deploy so-called administrative resources on
behalf of their political parties and favored candidates.
Tsarukian’s surprise announcement sparked a flood of rumors that the
party is trying to seize the initiative from Armenia’s relatively weak
opposition ahead of the February 2013 presidential vote. Prosperous
Armenia has the reputation for a semi-messianic sense of mission
and generous gift-giving — everything from tractors to healthcare,
on the campaign trail and off — that suggest the party, and its
colorful leader, will not want to rest in the shadows.
At this stage, though, the party’s future trajectory is less than
clear. Citing “his extremely busy schedule,” Tsarukian missed the
new parliament’s first session on May 31, and has remained a no-show.
At the same time, Sargsyan’s Republican Party has given no outward sign
of concern that a political battle with Tsarukian, a former world and
European arm-wrestling champion (in 1996 and 1998, respectively), may
lie ahead. Senior Republican Party members have downplayed Tsarukian’s
announcement, stressing to reporters that everyone is free to make
a choice, and that they do not rule out “possible cooperation” with
Prosperous Armenia.
Yet, as the Republican Party, which holds 69 seats in parliament,
moves ahead with cabinet plans with its junior partner, the six-seat
Rule of Law (Orinats Yerkir) Party, Prosperous Armenia appears nowhere
in sight.
Senior Prosperous Armenia MP Naira Zohrabian has declared that the
party supports a “constructive approach” to politics, but did not
elaborate.
In theory, Armenia’s opposition might appear ripe for a fresh face;
none of the three main opposition parties gained more than 10 percent
of the vote for parliament. But if Tsarukian is striving to become
the face of Armenia’s opposition, he will have to contend with the
existing opposition leader – Levon Ter-Petrosian, a fiery orator and
ex-president who heads of the Armenian National Congress (ANC).
Since the fatal post-election clashes between Ter-Petrosian’s
supporters and police in 2008, attendance at ANC rallies has
dwindled, but it holds seven seats in parliament and remains the
country’s largest opposition force. ANC leaders assert that they
have no intention of ceding their leadership role among opposition
political forces.
ANC political coordinator Levon Zurabian commented that the party
believes “that cooperation is possible with all political forces,
with which we are able to unite on legislative initiatives aimed
at weakening the positions of Serzh Sargsyan’s regime,” but
underlined that the ANC “will undertake the role of an engine in
these initiatives, and in forming an anti-RPA [Republican Party of
Armenia] camp.”
Zurabian said he had no knowledge of a Prosperous Armenia plan to
join the opposition.
Other sizeable opposition parties – the Heritage Party and the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutiun (with five parliamentary seats
each) – similarly are not extending a welcoming hand to Tsarukian. “The
opposition must not allow a scenario in which another candidate,
a protege of the governmental candidate becomes the favorite,” drily
commented Stepan Safarian, the former Heritage parliamentary faction
leader, in reference to Tsarukian and President Sargsyan’s presumed
run for reelection.
Analyst Manvel Sargsian, director of research at Yerevan’s Armenian
Center for National and International Studies, a think-tank founded
by Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovanissian, shares the scepticism
that Prosperous Armenia can reinvent itself “on the opposite pole”
of Armenian politics.
“[T]hey are just fighting to offer ‘more expensive’ assistance to the
Republican Party of Armenia,” commented Sargsian. “Tsarukian’s moves,
his silence and wait-and-see policy are hinting at this.”
Adibekian, the pollster, believes that Tsarukian’s refusal to join
the government coalition may already have won him some opposition
support, but cautions that many of Prosperous Armenia’s votes may
have come from people attracted by the party’s formerly close ties
with the Republicans. “He needs to be very cautious in his game,”
the pollster said.
Simply put, “nothing” can be ruled out ahead of next year’s
presidential elections, said independent political analyst
Yervand Bozoian. “A current pro-government candidate may appear
opposition-oriented tomorrow or vice versa; the situation may change
unexpectedly.”
Editor’s note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter in Yerevan
and the editor of MediaLab.am.