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Report: Renewable Energy Potential in Armenia

Wind turbines in Lori Marz

Report: Renewable Energy Potential in Armenia

By Tamara Babayan, Areg Gharabegian, Artak Hambarian, Morten
Søndergaard,
Kenell Touryan

YEREVAN (A.W.)-Danish Energy Management, in close consultation with
main stakeholders and local experts in Armenia, recently prepared the
Renewable Energy Roadmap for Armenia and its related technical
studies, which were funded by the Renewable Resources and Energy
Efficiency Fund (R2E2) of Armenia under the World Bank GEF Grant. This
paper is a summary of the findings and conclusions of the studies and
roadmap.

Renewable energy development has been slow in the past, but its
application throughout the world is accelerating. Policies to
stimulate a faster deployment of clean energy technologies are
necessary and will, in turn, create a level playing field by
addressing market barriers, creating transparent pricing structures,
and facilitating access to infrastructure financing. Because the
renewable energy industry is not yet at the same level of development
as the more traditional energy industries, it needs a more favorable
regulatory environment in the near term for its development, survival,
and transformation to a mainstream energy resource.

Some renewable energy technologies – such as hydro, biomass, and wind
– are close to becoming commercial and should be the first to be
deployed on a massive scale. While other renewable energy technologies
exhibit promising potential, they are less mature and require
long-term vision, government encouragement, and favorable regulations
to flourish. The U.S. and European Union have implemented effective
support policies for renewable energy development, which have resulted
in the acceleration of renewable energy technology deployments in
recent years.

Current energy status in Armenia

Armenia does not have any fossil fuel or coal reserves, and is
therefore entirely dependent on imported fuel for transportation,
electricity generation, and heat production. While surrounded by
countries that possess significant hydrocarbon reserves, Armenia’s
fossil fuel reserves are limited to a small number of lignite or brown
coal mines located in the vicinity of Gyumri and Spitak. Oil drilling
results have shown that while some oil reserves exist, they are
located too deep to be economically viable for extraction.

Armenia has overcome the energy crisis of the 1990’s and has built a
viable energy system. However, compared to the year 1988, which was
the peak of economic output for the Soviet Republic of Armenia, energy
consumption continues to lag far behind 1988. The generation capacity
that year was over 3.5 gigawatts (GW), but the energy use in 2010 was
on average below 1.2 GW. This can be explained by the fact that the
energy industry in Armenia has yet to recover fully from the economic
decline that started with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

A number of thermal power plants have been closed and one of the two
reactors at the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant has been shut down. Power
generated from the Hrazdan-Yerevan and Vorotan Hydro Power Plant
cascades remain as important a power sources. Hydropower is
responsible for approximately one-third of the total power
generated. The Armenian government is planning to decommission
Metsamor Plant between 2017 and 2021. And there are plans to build a
replacement nuclear power plant with a 1,000 MW capacity no later than
2021.

Thermal energy generation capacity has also changed substantially
during the last two decades. During the Soviet era, there were no
air-conditioning systems in most of the residential or commercial
buildings, except for a very limited number of window units, and the
district heating systems, powered by heavy oil (mazut) and natural
gas, were the main heating source. After the collapse of the Soviet
Union, most of the urban centralized heating systems were
dismantled. Now a large portion of the population, approximately
one-third, has installed individual natural gas-powered heating
systems and the use of air-conditioning has increased noticeably.

The major changes in transportation are related mostly to the slow but
steady increase in living standards in Armenia, which in turn has seen
an increase in the number of privately owned cars. The greater use of
natural gas as an alternative to gasoline has increased the proportion
of natural gas-powered vehicles to approximately 50 percent of the
total vehicle fleet.

Currently Armenia can meet only 35 percent of the total current demand
for energy with its domestic resources.

Energy independence

Renewable energy resources offer numerous benefits as they can not
only reduce pollution, but also add an economically stable source of
energy to the mix of electricity-generation sources in
Armenia. Depending only on imported fuel for energy production makes
the country vulnerable to volatile prices and interruptions to the
fuel supply. Since most renewable energy sources do not depend on fuel
markets, they are not subject to price fluctuations resulting from
increased demand, decreased supply, or manipulation of the
market. Because fuel supplies are local, renewable resources are not
subject to control or supply interruptions from outside the country or
region. The nation’s fossil fuel dependence also has serious
implications for national security.

Any addition to the energy independence of Armenia has high direct
social, industrial, and political value in addition to psychological
benefits. Such benefits tend to be rather difficult to assess in a
monetary way. However, a potential approach could be based on the
results of the analysis that indicate that a 1 percent increase in the
use of renewable energy is equivalent to 3.65 days of independent
supply in the event of a total energy blackout.

Governmental agencies and laws

The main body for all energy policy matters and issues in Armenia
resides with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, which is
responsible for overseeing and managing all aspects of the energy
sector. The main quasi-governmental organization that is heavily
involved in renewable energy research and financing is the Renewable
Resources and Energy Efficiency Fund (R2E2) of Armenia.

General energy-related issues in Armenia are regulated by the Energy
Law, and specific issues related to renewable energy are regulated by
the Law on Energy Saving and Renewable Energy. The main purpose of the
latter is to define the state policy on the development of energy
saving and renewable energy. The idea is to strengthen the economic
situation and energy independence of Armenia by increasing the level
of indigenous renewable energy production.

Renewable energy options

As a country possessing no fossil fuel resources, Armenia could use
the different sources of renewable energy available in the
country. The findings of a comprehensive review of renewable energy
potential in Armenia have ranked small hydropower plants and solar
hot-water heaters as the most advanced renewable energy and the most
economical for Armenia in the short to medium term, followed by wind
farms and the use of heat pumps. Photovoltaics, geothermal power, and
bio-fuels, especially bio-ethanol from cellulosic feedstocks, are
ranked as more costly and are not expected to be commercially viable
in the short to medium term, but may play a more important role in the
longer term. Biomass for both heat and electricity production for the
short term can be considered, under several conditions, including
re-planting of harvested trees and bio-fuels using the fractionation
process. In addition, hydrogen could be a possible fuel for
transportation in the longer term. Finally, although not strictly a
renewable resource, municipal solid waste in landfills is a practical
source for generating methane for power production.

Funding sources are readily available for the construction of new
run-of-the river small hydropower generation systems or for renovating
existing systems. The main limitation is the availability of promising
sites within reasonable proximity to good roads, and transmission line
access where more small hydropower generation systems can be
constructed. The cost of installing electric power lines for renewable
energy facilities at remote locations to get connected to the grid can
be prohibitive from the perspective of overall commercial
reliability. It is estimated that in 2020, small hydropower installed
capacity will grow to be about 215 MW from the 100 MW level that
existed in 2010.

According to one study, Armenia theoretically has 5,000 MW of wind
energy capacity. However, this does not mean that if there is capacity
then it is equal to economically feasible electricity generation. Most
of the areas with high wind are not easily accessible for heavy
machinery, which is needed for the installation of the wind turbines.

Utility-scale wind farms are still not commercially viable under the
existing government-established electricity purchasing tariff
structure, from the perspective of attracting private capital
investment, without either additional fiscal incentives or
subsidies. The attractiveness of these investments would grow in all
probability as lighter weight turbines exhibit increased efficiencies
and the cost of the turbines decreases over time. However, the main
technical barrier is the difficulty in transporting large turbines
(1.5-3 MW) and composite blades (up to 52 m. in length) from a port of
entry to the selected site in a landlocked, mountainous country like
Armenia. Therefore, no more than 300 MW of wind-generated capacity in
2020 would be a realistic number, using turbines that do not exceed
1.5 MW per unit. As of early 2011, only 2.6 MW of wind power was
operative in the Lori region.

Currently the most cost-effective approach for using photovoltaic
solar panels for power production is to import solar cells and to
assemble them into modules in Armenia. The second alternative is the
development of an industrial base in Armenia to manufacture
silicon-based solar cells in the country, using its abundant quartzite
deposits. This alternative is expected to require an investment of
approximately $300 million. Presently there are only a few, small
pilot-type solar panel installations in Armenia.

Bio-ethanol production is essential for Armenia in order to move in
the direction of greater energy security of supply in the motor
transport sector and to offset potential future increases in the cost
of imported gasoline and compressed natural gas. One hundred percent
of motor transport fuels are imported. Even a 5 percent blend of
bio-ethanol with gasoline will replace approximately 14,000 tons of
expensive imported fuel per year. However, the cost of production of
bio-ethanol using indigenous non-food feedstocks, such as Jerusalem
artichoke or animal corn feed, is presently above the wholesale cost
of gasoline, which means that voluntary blending of bio-ethanol and
gasoline is not feasible unless mandated by the government.

Recent explorations and test drilling conducted in Armenia have
identified a maximum geothermal resource potential of only 75 MW. The
economic viability for geothermal power in Armenia seems marginal,
from both the perspective of cost and the total potential power
output.

Although municipal waste is not strictly a renewable source, it is
indigenous to the country, and its disposal is a monumental nuisance
and very costly. The average annual generation of municipal solid
waste in Armenia today is estimated to be 1,600 metric tons/day. The
traditional disposal of municipal waste is in engineered landfills or
in mass burn incineration, both of which generate serious
environmental problems. Land for disposal is becoming increasingly
scarce in urban areas. The more recent and beneficial use has been to
generate methane gas through anaerobic digestion, and then to use the
biogas to generate electric power.

The Lusakert Biogas plant in northern Armenia is the only
industrial-sized biogas facility based on organic waste from
poultry. Several years ago, USAID financed the construction of
approximately 40 small biogas units in the villages throughout
Armenia; most of these units, however, are not operational because
villagers prefer to use the old-style way of dried manure for heating
and cooking, instead of using these units to generate biogas.

Environmental benefits and impacts

Renewable energy generation will have mainly positive, long-term
environmental effects as it reduces the need for power generation
based on fossil fuels, thereby reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
emissions. Of course, renewable energy will cause environmental
impacts during construction and operation. Impacts during construction
are normally temporary and no worse than other industrial projects.

Approximately two-thirds of the current power generated in Armenia is
based on nuclear and hydropower, which in turn lowers the per capita
GHG emissions for Armenia. While the reduction of GHG emissions is
still among the targets to pursue, Armenia’s energy independence and
its reduction of the cost of energy generation are of higher
importance.

The main potential problems associated with small hydropower plant
projects could be their impact on migrating fish stock if proper fish
bypasses are not installed or if proper precautionary measures are not
implemented to avoid fish being sucked into the turbines. The main
impacts resulting from the operation of wind farms are low-frequency
noise and the visual pollution of the landscape. There is also the
possibility of birds colliding with turbine blades; avoiding bird
migration paths for wind turbine farms would minimize this impact.

Bio-fuel production results in virtually no net carbon emissions
during a complete life cycle if forests are not destroyed to make land
available for planting feedstock. Even though gasoline that is mixed
with bio-ethanol has less CO2, the blend produces higher nitrogen
oxide than gasoline, which is the main component of air pollution that
causes smog. Depending on the feedstock, the leftover by-products
could be useful as fertilizer, or fuel for operating processing
plants, or become waste.

Entities in the field of renewable energy

There are a handful of institutes, laboratories, and centers in
Armenia that are involved in renewable energy research and
development. Several private companies are also involved in the field
of hydro, solar, and wind power generation. The majority of these
companies are engineering and consulting firms that mainly provide
engineering design and feasibility studies for small hydropower
plants. There are a few small companies that assemble stand-alone
solar water heaters or hybrid units that work in conjunction with
central heating units of apartment buildings or social and educational
institutions.

Job creation

The use of renewable energy will not only keep hard currency in
Armenia, but will also create significant benefits through economic
development. The use of renewable energy technologies will create jobs
using local resources in the form of a new, `green,’ high-tech
industry with an important export potential. Banks and construction
firms will also benefit from the development of renewable energy
industries.

Biomass production is relatively labor intensive, which is one of the
reasons it is slightly more expensive than fossil fuels. Growing,
harvesting, and transporting biomass fuels all require local labor, as
does maintaining the equipment, which contribute to the high cost of
bio fuel. However, this means that jobs will be created in areas with
a depressed agricultural economy.

Conclusions

The findings of a comprehensive review of renewable energy potential
in Armenia have ranked small hydropower plants and solar hot water
heaters as the most economical for Armenia in the short to medium
term, followed by wind farms and the use of heat pumps. Photovoltaics,
geothermal power, and bio-fuels, especially bio-ethanol, are ranked as
more costly in today’s prices and are not expected to be commercially
viable in the short to medium term, but may play a more important role
in the long term. Biomass is also a viable source for heat and
electricity production in the short term. Finally, although not
strictly a renewable resource, municipal solid waste in landfills is a
practical source for generating methane for power production.

Renewable energy may not be the major source of energy development in
Armenia, but it should be an important component of it. As a result of
dropping prices of various renewable energy technologies, in the near
future renewable energy production cost could be competitive with more
traditional sources. Developing feasible and economically viable
renewable energy resources will create stable, domestic
power-generation capabilities, which in turn could be a major
component of Armenia’s national security.

Tamara Babayan is the director of the Renewable Resources and Energy
Efficiency Fund (R2E2) in Yerevan, Armenia. Areg Gharabegian is a
principal project manager with Parsons in Pasadena, Calif. Artak
Hambarian is a professor in the School of Engineering at the American
University of Armenia (AUA) in Yerevan. Morten Søndergaard is a
project manager with Danish Energy Management in Denmark. Kenell
Touryanis a visiting professor in the School of Engineering at AUA and
a retired researcher from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(NREL) in Denver, Colo.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

http://www.armenianweekly.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/renewable-energy-1.jpg
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Emil Lazarian

“I should like to see any power of the world destroy this race, this small tribe of unimportant people, whose wars have all been fought and lost, whose structures have crumbled, literature is unread, music is unheard, and prayers are no more answered. Go ahead, destroy Armenia . See if you can do it. Send them into the desert without bread or water. Burn their homes and churches. Then see if they will not laugh, sing and pray again. For when two of them meet anywhere in the world, see if they will not create a New Armenia.” - WS