KOCHARYAN IN FREEDOM SQUARE
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 13:17:23 – 04/11/2011
If the second president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan intends to return
to politics, then Serzh Sargsyan seems to leave no other way to him
but the Freedom Square.
The point is that Serzh Sargsyan seems to have effectively closed the
internal-governmental “landslides”. Perhaps, it will be impossible
for Robert Kocharyan to come to power the way he did in 1998.
The point is that in 1998 he came to power with Serzh Sargsyan. In
other words, not only Kocharyan but also Sargsyan knows this way
pretty well. Consequently, Sargsyan knows how to ensure its safety.
It remains to Robert Kocharyan to go to the Freedom Square and
voice about his intention to destroy the “state of bandits”. But,
as we know, the square is already occupied by Levon Ter-Petrosyan,
who would hardly cede it to Robert Kocharyan.
It can happen whenever Serzh Sargsyan will want to see in the square
not Ter-Petrosyan but Kocharyan. Sargsyan could solve serious political
issues by cooperating with Ter-Petrosyan because Ter-Petrosyan
possesses political resources.
Kocharyan does not have this resource. Kocharyan’s resource is within
the government and the government cannot cooperate with the government.
The vivid example is Russia – the Putin-Medvedev issues had to be
resolved in favor of any of them because if this issue remained
on the agenda for another four years, it could have destroyed the
“governmental vertical”.
In totalitarian governments, the authorities do not tolerate
counterbalance to the government and prefer the pyramid – the
“vertical” line.
However, after leaving the office of president, Robert Kocharyan used
all the possible occasions to hint that he will not accept this logic.
For instance, when Kocharyan was at the top of the pyramid, Sargsyan
waited patiently for his turn, and he started to show signs of
disobedience to Kocharyan when intentions to break the “order” were
noticed, and the Bargavach Hayastan party and Vardan Oskanyan became
more active in the political field.
“If you want others to obey you, you need to obey too,” said Serzh
Sargsyan in 2006, when he was elected President of the Republican
Board, dwelling on his relations with Kocharyan.
Kocharyan has different ideas on obedience, and here he does not accept
the principle of “barter”- “a hand washes a hand” – but the rule of
“power” – don’t obey me if you can.
Robert Kocharyan is evidently trying not to obey Serzh Sargsyan which
naturally should push Sargsyan for responsive steps trying to cut
the knots inside government which would enable Kocharyan to manage
the system like a marionette.
Many have the false impression that Serzh Sargsyan-Robert Kocharyan
contradiction, competition or the clash of interests, if any, would
have been expressed through visible confrontation and clashes, if
these lack, there is no conflict or clash of interests.
In reality, this is the superficial vision of the situation. Surely,
Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan have common interests too which
are no less important than contrary interests. Consequently, issues
between them could not be expressed in an evident manner, at least now.
Here, the ideas, abilities and experience of Kocharyan are almost
equal, which gives the advantage to the side which has more de jure
leverage, such as international support.
Here, for Kocharyan, the only way is public support in terms of public
policy application. The Freedom Square is occupied, while it will be
difficult to conduct a public policy in elite buildings.
The most optimal version for Kocharyan is the silence and the
expectation of a mistake or pause by Serzh Sargsyan.
From: A. Papazian