ARMENIAN OPPOSITION GROUP BACKS DOWN ON PROTESTS
By Naira Melkumyan
Institute for War and Peace Reporting IWPR
CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, No. 613
October 18, 2011
UK
After calling out supporters to demonstrate and then sending them
home, Armenian National Congress has some ground to make up in order
to remain serious political force.
Armenia~Rs main opposition movement has suffered a damaging setback
after public protests against the government came to nothing,
analysts say.
The Armenian National Congress, ANC, was in negotiation with the
government of President Serzh Sargsyan over the summer, hoping to win
concessions and thus cement its position as a leading political force.
The two sides were trying to overcome a legacy of mistrust dating
from the 2008 presidential election, after which ANC leader Levan
Ter-Petrosyan, the losing candidate, declared the results fraudulent.
The mass opposition protests that followed were broken up by police,
resulting in around ten deaths.
This year~Rs attempt at conducting a dialogue ran into the ground in
August, and the ANC called out its supporters for round-the-clock
demonstrations. Experts said the opposition~Rs move back to street
protests reflected pressures to begin campaigning for next year~Rs
parliamentary election. (See Political Dialogue Breaks Down in Armenia
for more on this.)
Opposition leaders said the protesters numbered 100,000 during the
day and 1,000 overnight, while police said the numbers never exceeded
5,000 or 6,000.
This time, all sides appeared keen to avoid the confrontations of
2008, and police did not intervene, although they regularly warned
protesters that they were acting illegally.
The press nicknamed the protests ~Sthe Potty Revolution~T, since public
toilets and cafes near the square where they took place were closed
for the duration. The deputy head of the president~Rs Republican Party,
Galust Sahakyan, suggested that the ANC install its own public toilets
or distribute chamber pots.
Eventually, Ter-Petrosyan himself asked the protesters to go home,
saying he would call them back when they were needed.
As well as loss of face for the ANC as a major political actor in
Armenia, the decision has also angered the rank-and-file supporters
who came out in force.
~SIt was anger that drove me here,~T Regina Temkina, a 50-year-old
doctor, said. ~SI~Rm going to demand that the sit-down protest
continues. It~Rs no life when you~Rre perpetually trampled underfoot
and pretty much driven out by your own country.~T
Analysts said Ter-Petrosyan risked alienating large chunks of his
own support-base, and his tactics would make it difficult to call
out demonstrators en masse in future.
~SI think the ANC~Rs decision to hold round-the-clock protests was
a strategic error,~T Yervand Bozoyan, a political analyst with the
Dialogue think-tank, said. ~SThe decision didn~Rt result in anything.
The ANC~Rs popularity has declined and it is no longer the same force
that was able to dictate terms in 2008. It~Rs the authorities who
can do that now.~T
A resumption of dialogue between the government and the ANC now
seems unlikely. The opposition suspended talks after a clash between
police and ANC activists, one of whom, Tigran Arakelyan, was arrested,
and the party has been demanding his release prior to restarting talks.
The Republican Party, meanwhile, said the protests must end before
negotiations could resume.
Ter-Petrosyan has said the ANC will accept any offer of talks, even
though they have ~Sceased being relevant~T and the party~Rs central
demand is for Sargsyan to step down as president immediately.
David Harutiunyan, a member of parliament who led the dialogue process
on the government side, said a resumption of talks would only happen
if the opposition “sobered up and recognised political realities”.
“A dialogue must be based on the good will and intentions of both
sides. I think that when the opposition recognises this, we will be
able to speak to them again. Until that happens, it would be premature
to talk about doing so,” Haratiunyan told RFE/RL radio.
Most analysts agree that the government has won this round, and
predict that it will drive home its advantage.
“Sensing the ANC’s weakness, the authorities will definitely assume a
tougher position,” Bozoyan said. “If the ANC then takes radical steps,
it will become an even more marginal force.”
While the breakdown of the dialogue might point to a repetition of the
clashes seen in 2008, Arman Melikyan, who stood for president that year
and now works for the campaigning group Refugees and International Law,
said neither government nor opposition would want that to happen. In
any case, he said, the ANC now lacked the support to mount major
street protests.
“The authorities understand that the ANC is not in a position to
take resolute measures, and it’s clear that things won’t get as far
as clashes. I don’t think these protests will produce any results,”
he said, adding, “The ANC must continue with the dialogue.”
Naira Melkumyan is a freelance reporter in Armenia.