KAZAN POLICY
by Yury Roks
DEFENSE and SECURITY
June 27, 2011 Monday
Russia
[translated from Russian]
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 23, 2011, p. 6
THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS BEFORE THE MEETING OF
THE PRESIDENTS OF RUSSIA, AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA DEDICATED TO
NAGORNO-KARABAKH REGULATION; Meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan
and Armenia Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsian will take place in Kazan
with assistance of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. This meeting
will be dedicated to resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia Ilham Aliyev and
Serzh Sargsian will take place in Kazan with assistance of Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev. This meeting will be dedicated to resolving
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Co-chairs of the intermediary commission of the OSCE (Russia, France,
US) who visited Baku, Yerevan and Stepanakert a short time before the
summit announced that the parties were close to an agreement as they
had never been before. A little later, official spokesperson of the
Russian Foreign Ministry Alexander Lukashevich said that Medvedev,
Sargsian and Aliyev would adopt a resolution about the draft document
on the basics of the conflict resolving and that “Moscow hoped that
there will be a progress and the process will go further.” Encouraging
statements sounded in Azerbaijan and Armenia too.
What may be signed in Kazan? Nezavisimaya Gazeta did not receive an
answer to this question from the sources close to the negotiation
process. Referring to the stringent confidentiality, the interlocutors
expressed a hope that “the matter will be moved from the standstill
condition.” The meaningful hints to the joint declaration of the
presidents of the countries being co-chairs of the intermediary group
of the OSCE adopted at the G8 summit in Davos on May 26 do not add
any clarity. By and large, the message to the heads of the conflicting
parties did not contain anything new: they were persuaded to sign the
Madrid principles of regulation, to give up the use of force etc. The
only difference was that the tone of the Deauville statement was a
little more decisive than in the preceding counterparts.
Thus, there are the Madrid principles on the table of negotiations
again. It is unknown if the new changes and amendments are added.
Their overall contain is confined to the gradual withdrawal of
Armenian forces from the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, return
of Armenian refugees, implementation of the peacekeeping contingent
and organization of a referendum about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
What will happen to the Armenian refugees who have quit Azerbaijan
during the war? What can be done to the couple of districts of the
so-called lower Nagorno-Karabakh that are controlled by the Azerbaijani
party now? When and how is Baku going to organize a referendum about
the status of Nagorno-Karabakh? What is its sense if the constitution
of Azerbaijan says that it is prohibited to organize a referendum in a
separate region but it can be organized in the country as a whole and
Baku is not going to change this article of the constitution, which
makes results of the people’s will manifestation uncertain?! Finally,
there is a firm position of Stepanakert that says that no resolution
will be implemented without participation of Nagorno-Karabakh in
the negotiations.
Vladimir Kazimirov, former head of the Russian intermediary mission,
participant and first co-chair of the intermediary mission of the
OSCE for Nagorno-Karabakh and plenipotentiary of the President of
Russia for Nagorno-Karabakh issues, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the
meeting of the presidents in Kazan is remarkable because it will take
place “near the junction of two ways.” He means, “Either the parties
will approve the principles on the basis of which foreign ministers
of Armenia and Azerbaijan with participation of representatives of
Nagorno-Karabakh start working out of a peaceful agreement on stopping
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, or there will be another skidding
and new rounds of negotiations despite the stringent attitude of the
heads of Russia, US and France expressed in the statement adopted at
their meeting in Deauville.” According to Kazimirov, the result of the
meeting in Kazan is not clear year. Will the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia find at least an approximate balance of real interests
and virtual concessions and acquisitions in the Madrid principles,
will they manage to believe at least their ability to counterbalance
it further during development of a peaceful agreement on the basis of
these principles and, what is the most important, to persuade their
public opinion of this?
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
