Message To Tsarukyan?

18 Oct 2010

One of the most essential components of the regular rally of the
Armenian National Congress held on October 15 is perhaps Levon
Ter-Petrosyan’s message to the major business. The leader of the HAK
has sent such messages before too stating that they would be happy to
work in the legal field, but now, they are just forced to pay tribute
to the power otherwise they will be punished. Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s
once again makes a partnership proposal to major businessmen. I
personally believe that this hint is addressed to the leader of
Bargavach Hayastan party Gagik Tsarukyan.

In an interview with, BHK faction secretary Aram Safaryan
said that next year we should expect major fermentation. And his
party will be active on all levels. He said they the Prosperous
Armenia party will fight in all legal methods and will receive as
many votes as people give. He is always an extremely cautious person
while he also said that if the BHK has no problems in parliament
with coalition partners, at the level of local organizations, there
is stiff competition, which may find an incorrect form. He said that
there is a struggle below, people of below rows do not agree with
the policies of the upper class.

If such a cautious person makes such revelations of struggle between
upper and below classes, we can only imagine the degree of panic of
the Prosperous Armenia party. Apparently, feeling that panic, Levon
Ter-Petrosyan again decided to offer cooperation, of course without
giving concrete names.

Will Gagik Tsarukyan understand this offer? Does he need it? If yes,
then he will understand to whom the words of Levon Ter-Petrosyan
were directed.

Times are unfavorable not only for the BHK but also for the Armenian
National Congress. Building it policies of the last year of their
policies mainly on the calculations of foreign policy failures,
the Congress significantly weakened its potential impact on domestic
political processes. He still remains the largest opposition force
in space, but this is not enough for major changes. Furthermore, a
few months ago, Levon Ter-Petrosyan said during a rally that Congress
was unable achieve change of government alone.

But the question occurs: why Congress does not dare to offer
cooperation to the ARF? Maybe because the ARF is too ambitious and
may challenge the leadership of Ter-Petrosyan. Not excluded, and
in this sense, Gagik Tsarukyan’s ambitions can be less. But Levon
Ter-Petrosyan is not ruled out not to turn to the ARF and Heritage
simply because they do not need cooperation with Congress. But the
Prosperous Armenia needs, simply because, in contrast to the ARF and
Heritage, BHK has much to lose.

And the fact that the BHK is on the way to the losses already it is
not a secret. That’s why Levon Ter-Petrosyan found it necessary to
repeat the offer now. For the first time, the situation in the power
camp was still uncertain: it was not clear who was going to hold the
dominance. Now everything is clear – Serge Sargsyan went ahead and is
already close to establishing dominance. And now Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s
proposal has a concrete addressee in the face of Gagik Tsarukyan.

Ter-Petrosyan’s proposal does not mean that Tsarukyan has to announce
his withdrawal from the coalition and join the Congress. The point
is about that Tsarukyan thinks about the current political moment
and assess the reality not on concepts in the power camp, but in the
frameworks of political ideas. And in this case it is easy to see
that the political interests of the BHK are similar to the Congress,
than by constructing the further activities on this similarity get
the BHK out of course of losses it appeared in.

All this does not mean that the BHK leader is no more likely to once
again enter into a deal with the government and once again become a
part of it. The question is what will be Serge Sargsyan’s ratio to
the new arrangements. It is not necessary to go far for this, it is
sufficient to recall how members of the Republican Party talked about
“weakening” of the BHK at any moment they wished. If someone in the
BHK thinks that such statements can be made without prior clarification
with Serge Sargsyan, the BHK is has to leave the coalition even more,
as it is dangerous to stay close to those, whom you do not know. Well,
if they know Republican Party it is even more dangerous it stay by
its side.

From: A. Papazian

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