BAKU: ‘No Changes Should Be Expected On Karabakh Fronts’ – Analyst

Akper Hasanov News.Az
May 21 2010

Alexander Iskandaryan News.Az interviews Alexander Iskandaryan,
famous Armenian political scientist.

Turkish Premier Erdogan paid a visit to Azerbaijan which made it
clear that the relations between our countries are sustaining almost
the warmest period in their development. Is it possible to say that
the expectations of official Yerevan that hoped for the cooling in
the Turkish-Azerbaijani relations by results of the Turkish-Armenian
"football diplomacy" have been unsuccessful?

If we judge the relations of the countries, according to the statements
of the politicians voiced during the official visits and Mr.Erdogan,
the relations between your countries have never worsened a bit,
while the transfer of Karabakh to Azerbaijan in the nearest future
is a solved case. As for the real politics, the fact of a serious
concern in Azerbaijan related to Turkey and indignation in Turkey
about Azerbaijan is obvious even for Yerevan. Some things have already
occurred in the relations between the two countries and this cannot
be changed anymore. The Armenian-Turkish process has changed the
region. The relations between the countries do not go traceless.

The very fact of signing the protocols by the Turkish side which
did not mention Azerbaijan or Karabakh cannot be rejected. As it has
already occurred, it can repeat in the future, therefore, the current
state is quite different from the state of 2004.

How does Armenia comment on the warming in the Turkish-Russian

Armenia is cautious about it. The historical reminiscence popular in
Armenia prompts quite a nervous perception of such rapprochements
between the two regional powers. Therefore, negative comments
prevail here.

What can you say about the statement in Armenian mass media that
Russia has presented the 2+3+2 scheme of Azerbaijani lands deoccupation
to Armenia?

Armenian mass medias publish such schemes at least once in a quarter.

I heard about such a scheme in 1989, if I am not mistaken, next time I
will hear it in autumn, I think, after completion of vacations. These
"schemes" prove the internal political situation and professional
diseases of media than of the possibility of the negotiation process.

These schemes proposed by anyone are not appropriate for execution, the
negotiation process is at an early stage. Even if we propose such an
exotic conduct of Russia, it is impossible to image the implementation
of such schemes in the real regime of coordination with all actors,
not speaking of the fact that the names of the regions, mentioned by
the authors of the schemes, prove their geographical incompetence.

What can you say about the current internal political situation
in Armenia?

It is quite stable. The economic situation is nice, opposition has
not been able to launch serious meeting activity, no elections are
predicted, the Armenian-Turkish process, which is one of the annoying
factors in domestic policy, has been frozen. No changes should
be expected on the "Karabakh front", it is summer-the traditional
dead season.

In other words, should we not view the upcoming visit of Armenian
ex-president L.Ter-Petrosyan to the United States as showing that
the United States prepare changes in powers in Armenia?

Certainly, not. The visits of the reserve presidents in the United
States are quite a routine practice. In addition, the candidates for
the presidential posts undergo castings usually not in Washington
but on the streets of their own capital cities. If they are held
successfully, the United States decides whether they are ready to
accept this reality or not. But not vice versa.