No Protocols But Preconditions


The Armenian and Turkish protocols are buried but the preconditions
still exist. Turkey managed to introduce three basic preconditions-
the recognition of the borders in accordance with Kars treaty,
refutation of the international process of genocide recognition and
acknowledgment of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. During
2009, Ankara got assured of the lack of prospects of the fulfillment
of the first two preconditions and decided to direct its efforts
to the implementation of the third task- concessions by Armenia in
connection with the Karabakh issue. Ignoring formality and etiquette,
Turkey stated that until there are no moves in the Karabakh issue,
the border will not open. It did not make this statement for Armenia,
which in essence, was not even thinking about the opening of the
border, but for the international community.

Azerbaijan supported its elder brother with a similar open argument –
if you do not give us the territories, we will start a war. So, the
current stage of the Armenian and Turkish relations can be called a
phase of cynical pragmatic trade.

Yesterday, the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev stated that either
Armenia will give a positive answer to the Madrid proposals, or the
negotiation process will be broken, "and between Armenia and Azerbaijan
a new period may start". What is the threat if Armenia refutes the
principles of Madrid was not clarified by Aliyev, but he hinted that
"if the Armenian party gives a positive answer and withdraws its forces
from the occupied areas, Azerbaijan will open the border with Armenia".

The Turkish premier Erdogan came out to be even more sincere and
stated that Armenia needs to withdraw only from 2 regions – Kelbadjar
and Fizuli.

The official Yerevan has not yet given concrete answers to these
proposals, but only Shavarsh Kocharyan, from time to time, "snarls"
at the Turkish-Azerbaijani statements.

Serge Sargsyan prefers philosophical reflection on the transience
of life. "We have to remember that peoples’ division into ethnic
and racial groups leads to bad consequences that their own welfare
cannot be built on the grief of others, that every people have the
right to live and develop, where they lived for centuries, and that
each nation itself must determine the way they wants to go".

In turn, Karabakh, not on the state but community level, proposes to
refute the principles of Madrid and direct all their efforts at the
international recognition of independence. During a recently held
"roundtable" in Stepanakert, experts stated that the only solution
of the current situation is to accept the reality.

Apparently, everything leads to this, and Azerbaijan is close to
recognition as never before. And now, only maximum restraint is to
be shown.

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