THREE TO TANGO?: MEDVEDEV’S TURKEY VISIT SPURS TALK ON REGIONAL ALLIANCES
Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
News | 12.05.10 | 09:50
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, as he was supposed to, gets a red
carpet reception in Turkey upon arriving May 11
Closer Russo-Turkish relations and the latest indications that these
relations may grow from economic cooperation into strategic partnership
have caused concern among political circles in Armenia.
While there seems to be a relative consensus in Armenia that Yerevan
will not yet lose its ‘monopoly’ as Russia’s most important strategic
partner in the region, some still urge caution and call on Yerevan to
be ready for possible surprises of the emerging Russo-Turkish tandem.
The talk of that sort intensified ahead of Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev’s official visit to Turkey on May 11-12 focusing on energy
projects and, as announced in the press, addressing some regional
tangles, including the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. As the Turkish
press writes, the visit is likely to become a crucial one. And
Medvedev himself has stated that "Russia and Turkey are becoming
strategic partners."
Turkey, as believed by experts, expects Russia to help it get engaged
in the ongoing international mediatory effort on Nagorno Karabakh as
part of the OSCE Minsk Group with a far-reaching objective of promoting
a settlement of the conflict that would favor its regional cousin
Azerbaijan. Also, they say, Ankara hopes that the Kremlin will exert
pressure on the Armenians to withdraw from the districts around Nagorno
Karabakh currently controlled by the unrecognized republic’s military.
Representatives of the governing coalition in Armenia are unanimous
that Russia will not make any concessions or moves at the expense
of Armenia.
"Russia will not imperil its relations with its strategic partner,"
Republican Party lawmaker Rafik Petrosyan told ArmeniaNow, invoking
the strong bonds that currently exist between Moscow and Yerevan.
Meanwhile, many recall history when in 1920-1921 a similar
Russian-Turkish rapprochement culminated in a Lenin-Ataturk arrangement
that cost Armenia its historical lands of Kars, Surmalu, Ardahan,
Nakhijevan and Artsakh (Karabakh).
Pro-opposition political analyst Marine Ghazaryan cites Medvedev’s
article in the Turkish newspaper Zaman in which the Russian
leader voices "deep respect for the great reformist Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk" and calls the 90th anniversary of the establishment
of diplomatic relations (between Leninist Russia and Kemalist
Turkey) ‘an important date’. (Read the full article here:
ssia-and-turkeyto-continue-relationshipsbeyond-goa ls-by-dmitry-medvedev.html)
"For us it is ‘important’ by the losses [that we suffered]," said
Ghazaryan, talking to ArmeniaNow. "And today, 90 years later,
the Russians sit down with the Turks to decide our fate, and our
authorities see nothing dangerous in it."
Political analyst and Turkey expert Artak Shakaryan also remembers
that the ‘Russian-Turkish embraces’ did not have a good outcome
for Armenia at the beginning of last century and that one needs to
exercise caution. He thinks, however, that the current ’embraces’
contain no major risk yet.
"The Armenian-Russian relations have stronger and deeper roots than the
Russian-Turkish relations, and I don’t think that Russia will trade
its long-term interests and relations with Armenia for short-term
ties with Turkey," Shakaryan said in an ArmeniaNow interview.
However, an expert for the Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS) Ruben Mehrabyan says that closer
Russian-Turkish relations should be definitely a matter of concern
for Armenia.
"The Karabakh conflict is a powerful weapon for Russia to maintain
its positions and influence in the region. However, I do not rule out
that one day other priorities will emerge for Russia and in that case
Armenia will face serious challenges," said Mehrabyan, adding that
the only way for Armenia to meet these challenges is by becoming a
truly democratic country.