EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF RUSSIA-BASED NEWSPAPER: TURKEY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO UNDERSTAND PROS AND CONS OF BORDER OPENING WITH ARMENIA
Today
April 16 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.az interview with well-known Russian journalist, editor chirf of
St. Petersburg-based "Konservator" newspaper, member of the Central
Council of the all-Russia Congress of Azerbaijanis Rustam Arifjanov.
Recent Washington meetings revealed that Ankara is firm in its
position, and is not going to open border with Armenia until the
occupants withdraw their troops from Azerbaijan’s lands…
Significant part of people involved in Armenia’s politics have already
pushed the government and the president to refuse the Turkish-Armenian
accords. They even say Armenia has the full right to withdraw from
these protocols if Turkey does not meet their requirements till April
24 (when Armenia will mark next anniversary of the events in Eastern
Turkey) and there is no progress.
We have already said that public opinion in Armenia over the
Armenian-Turkish protocols and even the opening of the border is
rather ambiguous. Not everyone wants it happen there. Great majority
of people in Armenia live on money sent by the diaspora or relatives
working abroad. Perhaps, that is why they are interested in opening
the border with Turkey.
Yerevan will further appeal to the United States and the European
countries to out pressure on Turkey. But, Armenians will not be
willing to accelerate this process.
In general, the Turkish-Armenian accords were signed under pressure
by the Obama administration. Therefore, Yerevan will not come up with
any initiative without Obama’s influence. The U.S. president is the
most interested party in the ratification of the protocols.
Prior to the Washington trip, Armenian President Sargsyan said
that Armenia had already passed a decision on the Armenia-Turkey
normalization and he will announce it in Washington. But when in U.S.,
Sargsyan did not make any public statements on this matter…
This decision may be related with Yerevan’s supposition that Turkey’s
slowness or reluctance to open borders and restore diplomatic relations
with Armenia are connected only with active foreign policy efforts
of Azerbaijan. Armenia believes that Turkey will agree on everything
if Azerbaijan is excluded from this process.
But this is not true. Turkey has quite complicated relationship with
Armenia. The Turkish and Armenian peoples did not have smooth relations
historically either. Therefore, some significant forces in Turkey do
not want to ratify the Protocols regardless of the situation in the
South Caucasus.
If the relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are jeopardized, of
course, there will be a double resistance to this process. Armenia
does not take into account the realities of Turkey’s modern politics,
thinking that Ankara is under pressure from Azerbaijan in this
context. I think that Turkey is quite powerful country to understand
all the pros and cons of opening borders with Armenia even without
Azerbaijan.
On its part, Azerbaijan also makes some moves. When Turkish
authorities communicate slightly warmer with the Armenian leadership,
we immediately see that high officials in Azerbaijan begin to more
closely interact with the northern or southern neighbors. These are
rather political and diplomatic games.
Therefore, internal political situation is the most important factor
for this. Erdogan knows that vast majority of Turkey’s population
sympathizes with Azerbaijan. And any move unfavorable for Azerbaijan
by the Turkish government will weaken support for the ruling party
even without pressure from Azerbaijan.
Turkish media reported that at a meeting with Erdogan, Obama promised
to do everything possible to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Did
you think America is really interested in bringing full settlement
to the conflict?
America really wants to be the party which will resolve the conflict.
Because the one who cuts this Gordian knot in the South Caucasus will
raise its geopolitical banner there.
Recently, Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement that they have
their own plan to settle the Karabakh problem. I do not really believe
this plan is effective because Tehran is anxious to see everything to
be solved either by Russia or the U.S. instead of him. So, it tries
to manipulate the situation with the help of some alleged plan.
Today Azerbaijan and Armenia are not able to solve this problem on
their own. Therefore, Obama’s striving to solve this problem putting
pressure on Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan is understandable.
In this sense, Azerbaijan enjoys both difficult and quite advantageous
position because it is not under Russian influence like Armenia,
and not so involved in the pro-American orbit like Turkey or Georgia.
So, Azerbaijan looks quite independently, leading not pro-Iran, not
pro-European, not pro-American, and not even pro-Turkish policy in
the South Caucasus. Something that Azerbaijani opposition dreamed
for 20 years of independence has finally happened – Azerbaijan lead
a pro-Azerbaijani policy.
To what degree the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey are strong
and positive given that the Armenians hope very much Obama will utter
the word "genocide" on April 24?
It’s a bit like schoolchildren’s game – will say or will not say. It
is clear that diplomats come up with all sorts of games, and pretend
to show that very much in politics is solved by certain words. It is
hard to predict what will the U.S. president say.
If Obama declines to utter this word, it will arise much protest in
Armenia. Yerevan understands that it cannot solve this issue only
through Russia’s help without the U.S. support. Therefore, Obama’s
speech will probably be symbolic. It will actually show degrees of
relations with Armenia and Turkey at the moment when the president
would turn to Congress. It will not be helpful to predict how events
will further unfold.
If one puts U.S. relations with Armenia and relations with the Armenian
lobby in one cup of the scale and the relations with Turkey, America’s
interests in the South Caucasus and Middle East, interests in the
Islamic world, interests of NATO, Turkey’s position as a counterweight
to Iran to another cup, it is clear what the balance will be. Current
U.S. leadership is composed of very intelligent people, so I do not
know what should happen so that the heavier part of the scales does
not outweigh the lighter one.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
