EX-FOREIGN MINISTER OF ARMENIA: IF TURKEY CANNOT FOLLOW THROUGH WITH ARMENIAN, THE DOMESTIC SITUATION IN TURKEY AS WELL AS TENSION IN THE CAUCASUS WILL WORSEN
ArmInfo
2010-03-10 12:17:00
ArmInfo. Will Turkey’s current turmoil between Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and the country’s powerful army complicate and delay
the country’s boldest initiatives in years – the moves to address
decades-old tensions with both Armenians and Kurds? Ex-foreign minister
of Armenia Vartan Oskanyan asked this question in his article at
Project Syndicate web-site.
Restructuring the role of Turkey’s army is vital, but if Turkey cannot
follow through with the Armenian and Kurdish openings, the country’s
own domestic situation, its relations with the two peoples, as well
as tensions in the Caucasus, will undoubtedly worsen. Of the several
flashpoints in the region, including that between Georgia and Russia
over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the tension between Armenians and
Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh is among the most challenging.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani struggle is more precarious. It is no longer
a two-way tug-of-war between two small post-Soviet republics, but part
of an Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan triangle. This triangle is the direct
consequence of the process of normalization between Armenia and Turkey,
which began when both countries’ presidents met at a football game.
That process now hinges on protocols for establishing diplomatic
relations that have been signed by both governments but unratified
by either parliament. Completing the process depends directly and
indirectly on how Armenians and Azerbaijan work to resolve the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
This snarled three-way dispute, if not carefully untangled, holds
many dangers. Turkey, which for nearly two decades has proclaimed
its support for Azerbaijan, publicly conditioned rapprochement with
Armenia on Armenian concessions to Azerbaijan.
Turkey, a NATO member, is thus a party to this conflict now, and any
military flare-up between Armenians and Azerbaijanis might draw it
in – possibly triggering Russia’s involvement, either through its
bilateral commitments to Armenia, or through the Collective Security
Treaty Organization, of which Armenia and Russia are members.
Given energy-security concerns, any Azerbaijani conflict would also
seriously affect Europe. Iran, too would be affected, since it is a
frontline state with interests in the region.
Armenians and Azerbaijanis have not clashed militarily for more than
a decade and a half. But this is only because there has been the
perception of a military balance and a hope that ongoing negotiations
would succeed.
Today, both factors have changed. The perception of military parity
has altered. With Azerbaijan having spent extravagantly on armaments
in recent years it may now have convinced itself that it now holds
the upper hand. At the same time, there is less hope in negotiations,
which appear to be stalled, largely because they have been linked to
the Armenia-Turkey process, which also seems to be in limbo.