ARMENIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS ‘OVER’
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Feb 22nd, 2010
YEREVAN (RFE/RL)-Armenia’s worst recession since the early 1990s
has come to an end, a senior government official claimed on Monday,
citing official statistics that show the Armenian economy growing
last month for the first time in over a year.
According to preliminary data released by the National Statistical
Service (NSS), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.4 percent
year on year in January after shrinking by 14.4 percent in 2009.
The reported growth was twice faster than the one forecast by the
Armenian government for 2010. A senior official from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week that the full-year growth rate
may well reach 2 percent.
The NSS data show that a 6.5 percent rise in industrial output was
the main driving force behind the unfolding recovery. That seems to
have primarily resulted from rallying international prices of copper
and other non-ferrous metals, Armenia’s main export item. Armenian
exports jumped by 57.5 percent to almost $54 million in January.
Armenia’s macroeconomic performance was also positively affected by
a 3 percent growth in agriculture reported by the NSS. By contrast,
the construction sector, which has born the brunt of the recession,
contracted by about 11 percent during the same period.
Trade and Economic Development Minister Nerses Yeritsian portrayed
the latest macroeconomic data as a clear indication that the economic
crisis in the country is over. "And I want to assure you that we have
come of out that crisis well," he told journalists.
In Yeritsian’s words, the recovery is facilitated by what he described
as substantial capital investments that have been made in public
infrastructures in the last two years. "They could not have failed to
have an impact on the diversification of the economy and this growth
figure," he said.
Yeritsian also insisted that financial assistance provided by the
government to the crisis-hit construction industry has not been a
waste of money. "The government measures against the construction
decline have been limited," he said. "The government has never even
tried to fully make up for the construction decline."
Finance Minister Tigran Davtian likewise asserted in late December
that Armenia is emerging from the recession with minimal losses.
Davtian downplayed the sharp GDP drop which has increased unemployment
and poverty in the country.
According to World Bank estimates, the number of Armenians living below
the official poverty line rose by 90,000 to make up 28.4 percent of
the population in the first half of 2009.