‘TEMPORARY SILENCE PREPARES FOR INTENSIVE DEVELOPMENTS’: ISKANDARYAN ON ARMENIA-TURKEY RAPPROCHEMENT
Tert
Nov 11 2009
Armenia
Over the past few weeks a sort of silence can be felt in the issue
of improving Armenia-Turkey relations. But the Armenian public is
already used to the fact that political events actively develop. This
particularly refers to developments in foreign policy. However,
in Director of Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan’s opinion,
to expect that events will develop every day is not right.
"That temporary silence prepares for intensive developments," believes
the analyst. Iskandaryan stated that in the near future he will leave
for Turkey to become familiar with the developments’ overall picture.
The politician also offered an opinion, shared by his colleagues, on
the Armenia-Turkey Protocols: "If Turkey’s governing elite so wishes,
it can push forward any issue in the parliament," said Iskandaryan,
quoted his Turkish colleagues’ words and adding, for that, the
corresponding carrot and stick are necessary.
According to him, there is already the stick, but the carrot has yet
to be found.
The analyst also presented several Protocols ratification scenarios
taken by Turkey’s Meclis. Thus, according to Iskandaryan, the Protocols
might be ratified in January or February of next year.
The second scenario, which the politician considered unrealistic,
is that the ratification will take place on April 24.
The third scenario, and the most unlikely, foresees ratification
of the Protocols with a closed format. And the last scenario is the
"postponement of the decision."
According to Iskandaryan, the Kurdish issue is perceived in Turkey
more acutely than the issue of Armenia-Turkey rapprochement. At the
same time, he didn’t rule out that "beneath all the noise of the
Armenian-Turkish issue, the Turkish side may, without a problem,
also push forward that issue."