APA, Azerbaijan
Sept 19 2009
An American expert John Sitilides: `All signs continue to point to an
October 13 signing agreement formalizing the normalization of
diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia’
[ 19 Sep 2009 23:03 ]
Washington. Zaur Hasanov ` APA. American expert John Sitilides’
interview to APA
– Do you expect any concrete outcome of the Presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia in Moldova scheduled for October 5-7th ?
– The Armenia-Azeri relationship is sufficiently loaded with mutual
suspicion and mistrust that will not be overcome in a single
meeting. However, there are larger forces at play in their respective
societies, as well as in Turkey, Europe and the United States that are
signaling a desire to invigorate a diplomatic process for resolving
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and addressing a lengthy series of
attendant bilateral and regional challenges that emanate from the core
conflict.
These challenges will not be overcome by the Turkish-Armenian
diplomatic breakthrough alone, although that important development
does mark a significant turn from prior policies of utter contempt and
marginalization of adversarial parties. In a region fraught with
ethnic violence, economic deprivation, political instability, the
opportunity to achieve ideal outcomes necessarily begins with
normalized relations and a process for conflict resolution, economic
integration, and political democratization that ensures individual
liberties and the rule of law for all citizens.
– If the mentioned negotiations will fail to bring any result, can it
postpone President Sarkisyan’s visit to Turkey on October 12th?
– Barring some extraordinary situation or crisis, the Turkish-Armenian
diplomatic process will likely continue based upon the will and
actions, or lack thereof, of the Turkish and Armenian parties. The
Turkish government, starting with Foreign Minister Davutoglu, has been
careful in its public statements to emphasize that its relationship
with Azerbaijan will not be adversely affected by diplomatic outreach
to Armenia . All signs continue to point to an October 13 signing
agreement formalizing the normalization of diplomatic relations
between Turkey and Armenia .
– After the Protocol’s signed, they should be approved by the
Parliaments of two countries. Do you think that if there will be no
improvements on Azerbaijan-Armenian negotiations, Turkey can withhold
the ratification for as long time as possible?
– Though there is vigorous debate in Turkey , as there is in Armenia ,
about the respective ratification of the agreements, they will likely
be approved. The problems may arise down the road if there is no or
little meaningful progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, as both
Turkey and Armenia will view each other with suspicion that benefits
are accruing to the other at the expense of each side’s self-interest,
especially regarding the conflict. On the Turkish side, Prime Minister
Erdogan has flatly and bluntly announced that the Turkish-Armenian
border will not be opened until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is
resolved. So diplomatic relations can be normalized as a necessary
mechanism for communicating, exchanging ideas, and resolving
conflicts, but there is no guarantee that any of those objectives can
actually be accomplished.
– If this happens, what will be the reaction of U.S.? Can U.S. force
Turkey push forward with ratification of the Protocols and can they
successed?
– The U.S. was unable in 2003 to persuade the Turkish parliament to
approve the use of territory for a major land invasion of Iraq , a
matter of paramount importance to U.S. national security
interests. Clearly, the U.S. is limited in its ability to compel
Turkey to take desired steps on other matters of consequence to
U.S. interests. I do expect the Obama Administration and top
congressional leaders to urge Turkey to remain focused on the
long-term objective of normalized relations with Armenia . As the
U.S. encourages Armenia, it will encourage Turkey to use its influence
in Azerbaijan so that both sides can take bold, essential actions to
resolve their conflict Armenia and help bring about peace, freedom and
prosperity to all the people of their respective nations.
From: Baghdasarian