ANALYSIS: ARMENIAN-TURKISH TIES PRO ET CONTRA
Aysor
Sept 8 2009
Armenia
Armenian-Turkish ties and published Protocols in particular are in
the spotlight of political debates for a long time.
By the way the sounding assessments do not seem to be very defensible
or exclusive. And the problem, meanwhile, boils down to some basic
questions:
– How sincere and truthful is Turkey’s position in the initiated
dialogue.
– Whether Armenia has its own interest in ties or is under pressure
of superpowers.
– Starting the dialogue Turkey may stretch it in order to get an
assignment from Armenia associated to Karabakh issue.
– Having negotiations with Turkey through the mutual recognition of
borders and sovereignty, Armenia, in fact, is recognizing Turkey in
its current borders and is reaffirming the provisions of the Treaty
of Kars.
– Within the historians commission framework created during the
normalization of relations there may arise a dispute on Armenian
Genocide.
Basically these are the questions that concern Armenian society, its
population, politicians and political parties. Some politicians try to
make higher PR around such important and topical issues, well-getting
that relations with Turkey are traditionally the emotional topic. The
political hysteria, which they call patriotism, shows the immaturity
of some segments of the culture of Armenia’s political field. That
comes into being at the very important to people and country periods.
By refraining from these political strains and realizing the importance
of the problem for our nation and state, we try to understand gradually
what’s the matter and what possible risks may arise in the process
of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.
Thus, in the list of problems the top one is how sincere is
Ankara. First lets get that no sincere is applicable in policy and
in international ties in particular. Interest is instead.
Meanwhile, Ankara has rethought its role in region and realized that
Azerbaijani ‘ballast" keeps out the opportunities for Turkey’s more
effective partnership to Europe, a partnership of a new quality to
U.S., as a regional and possibly macro-regional superpower.
Principle of "One nation – two states", which has traditionally been
guided by Turkey, is now rather obstacle than a subsidiary phenomenon,
so one needs to engage in dialogue not only with the official Yerevan,
but also with another major player in region – Moscow. And not only
engage in dialogue but find a common key to regional problems.
This does not mean the easy compromises of Ankara, it contrary will
choose the way of stretched negotiations, and will try to solve
some additional problems, will also try to correct some mistakes of
its own. Many things will depend on Yerevan, tightening positions
on various issues time after time (such as Serzh Sargsyan’s famous
statement addressed to Turkey) and related information services may
lead to the situation Ankara will not be happy with, and the process
will be critiqued by international community.
Another factor of risk is the concern that Armenia’s national
interests can be dissolved in the interests of the superpowers
involved in the process. For a long time, Armenia is the bearer of
the initiative foreign policy. This includes activity and integration
in all processes we interested in. One can hardly recall a single
case when countries of region and the superpowers with their own
interests came to agreement. The normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations has led to almost common interests and goals of Brussels,
Moscow and Washington. The interests of Armenia today are clearly
defined and clearly manifested even when the approaches of any of
poles do not coincide with ours.
It has become a tradition, when Ankara in order to calm his
"Jr. Brother" reminds that Armenian-Turkish relations and Karabakh
negotiation processes are related to each other. Today, when the
documents are announced, we can see how interrelated they are. No
single word, and Armenian side always spoke about it.
Ankara will not change its style of negotiations but it realizes that
Azerbaijan’s mark will become sharp. That is why Turkey tries now to
include Karabakh issue in the agenda of the UN Security Council.
Another concern is associated with Armenian-Turkish intergovernmental
commission and the historians subcommittee aimed "to realize the
historical perspective of the dialogue between the two peoples,
aiming at the restoration of mutual confidence, including through an
impartial scientific study of historical documents and archives in
order to clarify the existing problems and formulate proposals."
This can be commented in different ways. However before all the
Armenian side has repeatedly told the issue of Genocide could not
be debated, another case that bilateral consultation on Genocide,
Turkish General Staff MD archives opening can. Besides these bilateral
consultation on Genocide and archives opening will be filled by topics
of current Armenian heritage in Turkey.
Experts and political leaders notice the main concern: that is the
borders recognition. Lets try to understand what is the problem. First,
note, Armenia has long recognized borders of Turkey, and Treaty of
Kars is out of discussions, as FM noted a day before. One can make
sure by reading the published protocols.
Summarizing, we note that it is necessary to understand an
important and simple truth: today, when the region is experiencing
transformation, one should not show the formal patriotism all around
the world. One can engage in constructive discussions instead, which
clearly bring a great favor to country.