LEBANON: ELECTIONS, THE CLOUT OF THE CHRISTIAN VOTE
by Stefano de Paolis
ANSA med
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June 5 2009
(ANSAmed) – BEIRUT – The number of Christians in Lebanon is steadily
decreasing and those who remain are increasingly divided, but their
political clout, and especially their choice between two opposing
parties, will be a decisive factor in establishing the majority in
Parliament after this Sunday’s elections. The Lebanese political
system dictates that 50% of the 128 seats in Parliament will be given
to Muslims, Shiites, and Sunnis, basically united but with their own
internal rivalries. The other seats will go to Christians, some of
whom are allied with pro-Western Sunnis and others with pro-Iranian
Shiites. Today, Christians make up one-third of the nearly four million
people in Lebanon. Their two main representatives are Free Patriotic
Movement leader, Michel Aoun, and the leader of the Lebanese Forces,
Samir Geagea. Both have decided to continue with their historic
rivalry, which started during the Lebanese Civil War in Lebanon from
1975-1990. Aoun, who in the 2005 elections received an unprecedented
landslide, made a solid agreement with Shiite movement Hezbollah, which
is supported by Syria and Iran and which, with the other important
Shiite group Amal, forms the ‘March 8’ alliance. Geagea is allied
with Sunni Saad Hariri, who leads the ‘March 14’ majority coalition,
supported by the US and Saudi Arabia and which also includes important
Christian leader, Amin Gemayel, leader of the Kataeb Party. A rivalry,
which after the end of the civil war and in the subsequent ‘pax
Syriana’ made a strong contribution to diminishing the political
clout of the Lebanese Christian community through isolation and
migration. Both leaders paid for the consequences of this: Aoun,
who in 1988 as army commander declared the "war of liberation" from
Syrian troops in Lebanon, was exiled to France in 1991. Geagea, an
‘ex-warlord’ at the time, was imprisoned in 1994 for war crimes;
he remained behind bars for 11 years. After their return to the
political scene in 2005 following the assassination of ex-Premier
Rafik Hariri and after 29 years of Syrian domination over Lebanon,
the two appeared to be willing to make a deal. Nonetheless old
grudges flared up once again, with an ensuing fight to become the
‘champion’ of the Christian community, which includes Catholics,
Maronites, Orthodox, and Armenians. However, if no one is betting
on a decisive shift in Aoun’s support towards Geagea or vice-versa,
the decisive factor in determining the balance of power could be the
small Armenian community. With 150,000 voters, they have traditionally
supported the majority. In this electoral campaign, Tashnak, the most
important Armenian political party has clearly chosen to favour the
alliance led by Hezbollah. (ANSAmed).