AFTER TURKEY’S HYPE OVER OBAMA COMES HARD IMPLEMENTATION
Fadi Hakura
Daily Star
April 21 2009
Lebanon
President Barack Hussein Obama swooped into Turkey on April 6 for
two days of fence-mending bilateral relations with its erstwhile,
if sometimes prickly, ally Turkey while disseminating a message of
friendship to the wider Muslim world. Obama cut a dashing figure,
mesmerizing the normally skeptical Turkish public with self-deprecating
references to his inspirational life story of struggle and achievement.
This trip could be characterized as a success in terms of public
diplomacy. Opinion polls indicated that Turks had an increasingly
favorable attitude toward the new US president. Turkish media
was also mostly upbeat, bringing into sharp focus the contrast
between the positive vibes directed toward Obama and the negative
perceptions of his predecessor, President George W. Bush. Meanwhile,
Obama heaped praise on Turkey’s European aspirations, as well as on
its democratic and secular traditions and its regional ambitions in
the Middle East. He deftly maneuvered around the hot Armenian issue,
without conceding on his points of principle.
Obama also awed audiences beyond Turkey. After all, the visit was
not just about Turkey, but additionally about the Muslim world in
general. His speech to the Turkish Parliament – in which the sound
bite that the United States is not at "war with Islam" was interpreted
as a radical break with Bush’s "war on terror" rhetoric – attracted
the close attention of media in the Arab world.
Now that the party is over, however, a more sober assessment of the
ultimate impact of Obama’s Turkey jamboree is needed. For starters,
it is fair to say that US-Turkey relations had already undergone a
rapid turnaround even before Barack Obama took office, namely during
the tail end of the previous administration, after President George
W. Bush agreed to actively cooperate with the Turkish military in
its fight against Kurdistan Workers’ Party combatants infiltrating
Turkey from northern Iraq.
But Obama’s charm offensive has generated heightened expectations of
a substantive shift in US foreign policy, specifically when it comes
to the Middle East. Turkey welcomes Obama’s current desire to open a
dialogue with Iran and Syria, as well as its ongoing plan to withdraw
American combat troops from Iraq by mid-2010, and all troops by the
end of 2011. But, as always, the litmus test will be the stance of
the United States on the dispute between Israel and its neighbors,
particularly the Palestinians, but also Syria and Lebanon. How the
US handles the new government of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and
the glaring divide exiting between the Palestinian groups will be
closely watched by Turkey and by the Muslim world.
Naturally, heightened expectations are not just a one-way street. Obama
expects Turkey to deliver on its promises to improve ties with
Armenia by re-opening the border that has been closed since 1993,
and by establishing diplomatic relations with Yerevan. Whether
Turkey can re-open the border in the absence of a resolution to the
Azerbaijani-Armenian dispute over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is
open to debate. Yet, there is a serious risk of disappointment rising
in Washington if the promises fall short or flat.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly abrasive
style of diplomacy, displayed in full during his adamant opposition
to Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s candidacy to take the
helm of the NATO alliance recently, could eventually irk policymakers
in Washington. Obama seems to prefer a Turkish foreign policy of
the quiet and constructive type rather than one based on emotional
gestures and religious undertones. So the ground exists for some
disappointment here as well.
Despite the pitfalls, there is no doubt that US-Turkey relations are,
at least for now, on a firmer, realistic footing than they were during
the Bush years. Gone are the poisonous atmospherics of the past,
while in have come greater mutual cooperation and respect between
Washington and Ankara. However, the present mood cannot be taken
for granted. That the persistence of instability in the Middle East
and the Caucasus region could provoke events that scuttle relations
with Turkey is possible, perhaps resulting from the ongoing conflicts
between Arabs and Israelis, Iran’s nuclear program, and developments
in Iraq, Afghanistan or Armenia, to name just a few examples. Public
diplomacy is the easy part. Delivery is a far harder prospect when
it comes to the United States and Turkey.
Fadi Hakura is the Turkey analyst at Chatham House in London. This
commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an
online newsletter that publishes different views of Middle Eastern
and Islamic issues.