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urkish-dilemma/
F. Stephen Larrabee, RAND
President Obama’s visit to Ankara this week highlights Turkey’s
growing strategic importance to the United States ‘ and a high stakes
dilemma for the President and for U.S. strategic interests.
Turkey today plays an increasingly important role in Central Asia, the
Caucasus and the Middle East, and its cooperation is critical to
achieving U.S. objectives in all three areas. Turkey also enjoys
strong ties to Iran and Syria, which could be helpful as Washington
seeks to establish a dialogue with both countries.
Turkish cooperation could be important in facilitating the withdrawal
of U.S. troops from Iraq and promoting stability once they
leave. Turkey is even emerging as an important transit route for the
transport of Caspian oil and gas.
However, the administration’s efforts to repair relations with Turkey
could be derailed by a Congressional resolution introduced last month
condemning Turkey for the mass deportation and death of hundreds of
thousands of Armenians in 1915.
The fate of the Armenians killed in 1915 is a major tragedy and an
important moral and political issue. However, the Armenian Genocide
Resolution is not the way to address it. Passage of the resolution
would precipitate a crisis in U.S.-Turkish relations, and damage
broader U.S. interests in the region.
The genocide resolution is a highly emotional issue in Turkish
domestic politics and has been a source of deep discord in
U.S.-Turkish relations. In the fall of 2007, the Bush administration
narrowly averted a serious crisis with Ankara only by a last minute
all-out lobbying campaign that prevented the resolution (HR-106) from
coming to a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives.
But the genocide resolution is far from dead. The Armenian lobby was
encouraged by its near success in 2007.. And the proposal has strong
support among Democrats, who traditionally are more concerned about
human rights issues than are Republicans. The Speaker of the House,
Nancy Pelosi, is from California, which has a large ‘ an on and
President Obama both supported the resolution during the presidential
campaign. In office, they could change their minds, as a number of
their predecessors have done. They might have trouble, however,
persuading some of their colleagues.
If the resolution is passed, the Turkish government could come under
strong domestic pressure to take retaliatory actions. Anti-American
sentiment there is already high. US-Turkish relations seriously
deteriorated during the Bush administration as a result of the US
invasion of Iraq and the unwillingness of the Bush administration to
assist Turkey in combating cross-border attacks by the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK), a terrorist group located in the Kandil
mountains in northern Iraq. Clearly President Obama is working to
rebuild relations with his visit there..
If the genocide resolution is passed, however, Turkish leaders might
be pressured to retaliate by, for example, denying the United States
use of Incirlik air base in southern Turkey. Incirlik plays a critical
role in the transport of people and materials to Iraq and
Afghanistan. Moreover, with the recent loss of U.S. access to the base
at Manas in Kyrgyzstan, Incirlik could become a crucial hub for
U.S. efforts in Afghanistan. Loss of access to Incirlik could also
complicate the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.
The Armenian conflict remains sensitive because it was key to Turkey’s
emergence as a nation. Recalling the conflict conjures fears of
separatist conflict, and fuels Turkish nationalism. However, Turkey
has shown a greater willingness to address the issue more openly in
recent years. At the end of 2008, more than 26,000 Turks signed a
letter apologizing for the deaths of the Armenians who died at the
hands of the Ottoman authorities in 1915.
Passage of the genocide resolution could seriously set back the
process of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation currently underway between
Ankara and Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. This process has gained
important momentum since President Abdullah Gul’s hist ia ‘ the first
visit to Armenia ever by a Turkish president ‘ in September
2008. Recent statements by Turkish and Armenian officials suggest that
the two countries are close to normalizing relations.
A normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations would have important
implications for stability in the Caucasus and enable Armenia to
reduce its political and military dependence on Russia – an important
U.S. policy objective. It would also remove a major obstacle to
Armenia’s ability to join regional energy schemes, from which Armenia
has been so far excluded. This process risks being derailed, however,
if the genocide resolution is passed.
The Obama administration thus needs to pursue a two track
policy. First, it should seek to bolster strategic ties to Turkey and
continue to actively support the Erdogan government’s struggle to
combat terrorist attacks by the Kurdistan Workers Party. This is
regarded by Ankara as the litmus test of the U.S.-Turkish security
relationship. Second, the administration needs to work with the
Congressional leadership, especially Pelosi, to head off passage of
the genocide resolution.
Instead of passing the Genocide resolution Congress should encourage
the process of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, particularly the
opening of the Turkish-Armenian border (closed since 1993), which
would have an important economic impact on Armenia and decrease
Armenia’s economic isolation.
In return for heading off the resolution, Turkey should pursue
reconciliation with Yerevan and continue the effort to promote greater
internal openness in addressing the Armenian issue that has been
evident in recent years.
This would represent a win-win situation for all sides and avoid a
crisis that could do untold damage to U.S.-Turkish relations and
broader U.S. interests in the Middle East and Caucasus.
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Editors Note: F. Stephen Larrabee holds the Corporate Chair in
European Security at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit institution
that helps improve policy and decision-making t
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
