toknow/2007/10/the_battle_for_azerbaijan.html
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Guest Voice
The Battle for Azerbaijan
October 19, 2007
By Karl Rahder
Vladimir Putin’s statement at this week’s Caspian Sea summit that no
country in the region "should offer its territory to third powers for
use of force or military aggression" has been widely and correctly
seen as aimed to deter U.S. military intervention in Iran.
But this warning was directed not only at the U.S., but at Azerbaijan,
the smallest of the Caspian countries and America’s chief ally in the
region – and at any plans to establish a permanent U.S. base in
Azerbaijan.
Oil-rich Azerbaijan sits on the Caspian Sea’s western shore, wedged
uncomfortably between Russia to the north and Iran to the south, and
close to the two other Caspian states, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
That makes it prime real estate for a U.S. military base, and the U.S.
has made no secret of such desires. An Azerbaijani base could serve as
a staging area if Washington decides to strike Iran’s nuclear assets,
including the Bushehr atomic reactor, which Russia sold to Iran and
which is due to come online late this year despite a billing dispute
between the two countries.
The Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, has deftly balanced Russian
and U.S. interests in his foreign policy, but Iran continues to
present a thorny problem for Azerbaijan. Iranian naval vessels and
military aircraft have incurred into Azerbaijani territory on a number
of occasions, and a sensational trial continues this month in Baku,
the Azerbaijani capital, where sixteen men have been charged with
plotting to overthrow the secular Azerbaijani government and impose an
Islamic regime with the assistance of a shadowy unit of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard.
Azerbaijan’s geographic location, Shi’ite Muslim population, and close
ties to the US make it vulnerable to internal destabilization
sponsored by its southern neighbor, and the past several years have
seen the breakup of alleged sleeper cells whose purpose is to disrupt
the government when the time is ripe and whom Azerbaijani authorities
say are supported by Iran. Even a minimal American military presence
in Azerbaijan would therefore be a political powder keg and lead to
much more vigorous efforts by Tehran to undermine Azerbaijan’s
security.
President Putin’s message about non-interference on Tuesday, along
with his pledge to bring the Bushehr reactor online, thus had
implications for both Washington and Baku. Iran is a huge market for
Russian infrastructure investment and arms. In 2005, Russia sold Iran
a $700 million surface-to-air missile system, which could be used to
protect the Bushehr reactor in the same way that dozens of
anti-aircraft batteries already surround Iran’s Arak heavy water
plant. Arak is particularly troubling, giving Iran a potential source
of weapons-grade plutonium to complement the uranium enrichment
potential at the Natanz plant.
So far, Azerbaijan is resisting American pressure to establish a base
on its territory, wary of angering Iran and souring relations with
Russia after a spat earlier this year over energy resources. Russia is
by far the strongest naval power in the Caspian, the world’s largest
inland sea, and it conducted war games in the Caspian as recently as
2002, shortly after the failure of a previous Caspian Summit. Smaller
states, such as Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, cannot hope to match
Russia’s or even Iran’s naval presence.
Russian efforts at the summit – thwarted by Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan,
and Azerbaijan – to obtain veto power over any new undersea Caspian
pipeline are part of a larger agenda of establishing a virtual energy
cartel with Iran for nearly all of Eurasia’s gas and oil. A
Russian-Iranian pipeline monopoly would have disturbing implications
for Europe, and particularly energy consuming nations with tempestuous
ties to Moscow. Countries such as Ukraine and Georgia remember all too
well their own difficulties last winter when gas supplies were cut off
>From Russia, leading to heating crises in both countries.
At his White House news conference on Wednesday, U.S. President George
W. Bush warned that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to a third world
war, and expressed hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin would
soon brief him on his trip to Tehran, where Putin met with the four
other leaders of the Caspian Sea countries the day before. That should
prove to be an interesting conversation, since Putin made it clear
while in Tehran that the United States should severely limit its role
Caspian affairs.
For now, the Caspian Summit has both failed to settle the legal issues
between the littoral states but succeeded in serving as a stage for
larger, global issues. And nowhere are these issues more pronounced
than in the Caspian region, where America competes with Russia over
influence in Eurasia. A vast region of mostly Muslim former Soviet
states – nearly all authoritarian and struggling with occasional wars
and revolutions, economic stagnation, and internal unrest – Eurasia
straddles the west and east, Christendom and Islam, Europe and Asia.
Both Putin and Bush are well aware that it is here where Russian and
U.S. interests clash most conspicuously, and Putin, while not
completely comfortable with the clerical regime in Tehran, has very
publicly taken sides.
Karl Rahder has taught US foreign policy and international history at
colleges and universities in the U.S. and Azerbaijan. In 2004, he was
a Visiting Faculty Fellow in Azerbaijan with the Civic Education
Project, an academic program funded by the Soros Foundations and the
U.S. Department of State. He is currently based in Chicago.
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Posted by Karl Rahder on October 19, 2007 9:59 AM
Comments (15)
Andreas:
While this article is, for a US mass media publication, not so
extremely unbalanced (it managed to avoid calling Ahmadinejad Hitler,
congrats!), I will take issue with a repeat of another of these
anti-Russian canards: "Countries such as Ukraine and Georgia remember
all too well their own difficulties last winter when gas supplies were
cut off from Russia, leading to heating crises in both countries."
The fact is Ukraine and Georgia wanted to steal Russian gas without
paying for it. All Russia asked was for them to pay the market value
for the gas – even they could have asked any price they wanted, since
it is their gas.
Please stop your constant anti-Iranian, anti-Russian, etc. propaganda.
People are sick and tired of you spewing your hate, discord and lies
about Iran, Russia or anyone else that stands up to Western or Zionist
imperialism and domination.
October 19, 2007 3:10 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on October 19, 2007 15:10
Eric:
Caspian Sea summit in Tehran was decidedly the Vladimir Putin show,
but the ostensible common front oddly enough seems to have revealed an
opening for a spoiler. The West ought to climb through:
w-opening-on-caspian.html
Also: That is Vladimir Putin’s challenge. His best chance of securing
that much-craved legitimacy is to pull off a diplomatic miracle. One
such as resolving the Iranian crisis. What is the mysterious "message"
he gave to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei?:
hurchillian-aspirations.html
October 19, 2007 3:32 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on October 19, 2007 15:32
MichaelSchn:
The whole text looks more like a Government press release, than an
analytical article.
It’s full with half-trues meant to mis-inform the reader. I like the
best the following phrase: "Caspian Summit has both failed to settle
the legal issues between the littoral states but succeeded in serving
as a stage for larger, global issues." What a creative abuse of
"both"!
About Azerbaijan the author tries to avoid discussing that Azeris are
both ethnic Turks but Shiite muslims. That creates the main dilemma:
being Secular, Azerbaijan has to be an ally of Turkey, including
staying in perpetual war with Armenia. Also their secular government
are dictators. The only way for them to fix both problem is: to turn
more like a Muslim state and to get closer with Iran. BTW, IMO it’s
not in the best interests of Russia either, but Russia has no choice,
it’s clear USA is much more dangerous to it than Iran.
This is the main issue. In 15 years since the collapse of Soviet Union
USA " has both failed " to destroy Russia as a world power, " but
succeeded " in restarting the Cold War.
Year over year USA worked in both directions: stirring the civil war
in Yugoslavia, moving NATO to East Europe, unconditionally supporting
chovist Baltic states (especially Latvia) with thier NAZI sentiments,
instigating "colorfull" revolutions in former Soviet republics, now
placing missiles in Eastern Europe – all these finally provoked
Russian response.
What’s interesting is: considering both military and political
failures in Iraq, failed education at home, failing economy, $US and
financial system based on it – may be it’s time to reevaluate our
preferences.
This applies to both US government and Mr. Soros.
October 19, 2007 3:59 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on October 19, 2007 15:59
roll’en on two:
It’s about time we tell the world we are done dieing and spending to
win the hearts of your nation’s.Like Bush said,you’r with us or your
not with us.If your not with us and you want to get stupid with us or
our friends,will send you some air mail from a corn field in the
midwest.
Games over were finished playing.If Azerbaijan chooses to side with us
then Putin;shut up and go home before you find your self on the
HISTORY CH.
Posted on October 19, 2007 16:05
MichaelSchn:
Eric, there is no "Iranian crisis" outside Washington, DC, and may be
Tel-Aviv/Jerusalem.
Even if Iran creates some nukes, they only may be used as defensive weapons.
As of the probability of Iran giving it to terrorists, it’s obvious
that Bush, Musharaff, or Israel are much more likely to do this.
The whole crisis is made up partially to appease Israel, but mostly to
bail out the falling $US bubble.
October 19, 2007 4:12 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on October 19, 2007 16:12
Anonymous:
Wow, roll’en on two, You sound s***** strong, Yea.
But don’t be so histerical, You only need to post Your bush-it 6
times, the 7th was one too many.
October 19, 2007 4:31 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on October 19, 2007 16:31
Kapioghly:
As one of 20 million Iranian Azari, I can assure you that if Republic
of Azarbayejon with her western backed oil thieves in anyway harm
Iran, it shall be a shortest lived republic in course of history,
after all they’re 100 Kilometer from my place as oppose to 10000
Kilometer from US and we will out stay Americans with vengeance, that
is no threat, period
October 19, 2007 7:48 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on October 19, 2007 19:48
POF:
I sometimes have doubts as to whether I’m right or wrong about in my
support for America. Fortunately, pro-Russian and Islamofascist dialog
like the one displayed here always reaffirms my political beliefs. Of
course, Russia is always fighting western corruption and is always on
the defensive. And of course, Georgia and Ukraine want to "steal"
Russian gas, that’s why Russia cut off its gas supplies to Georgia
after Georgia claimed Russian sabotage of gas-pipes in the Caucasus.
If you really want to know what’s going on, open your eyes. It’s no
coincidence that the Russian-backed opposition movement in Georgia is
growing at the same time tensions between Russia and the United States
are increasing. It’s not by chance that the Armenian genocide
resolution controversy began weeks after PKK attacks in Turkey. And
it’s certainly not by chance that Russia is allying itself with Iran.
Yes, the United States have motives similar to Russia in that they
want to extend influence throughout Eurasia and the Middle East.
However, as anyone that’s lived the nightmare of Russian domination
can confirm, an American presence in the region would be far greater
and more beneficial to peace and tranquility than the despotic regimes
of Iran and Russia.
October 19, 2007 8:35 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on October 19, 2007 20:35
Nicolas Makrides, New York:
Imagine where Russia would be if the biggest theft in the history of
man kind did NOT happen during the Yeltzin era.
I hope the nations in the Caspian would not act like another Georgia
or Ukraine with some kind of fruity revolution.