Agence France Presse
February 27, 2009 Friday 1:48 AM GMT
Armenia marks anniversary of deadliest post-Soviet clashes
Mariam Harutunian
YEREVAN, Feb 27 2009
Armenia’s opposition on Sunday marks the first anniversary of the
country’s deadliest political clashes since the break-up of the Soviet
Union, with analysts warning the threat of further turmoil remains.
The opposition, which plans to hold an unsanctioned rally Sunday to
mark the March 1 anniversary of clashes that left 10 dead, seems
marginalised and divided.
But analysts say that Armenia, which has suffered repeated bouts of
civil violence since gaining its independence from the Soviet Union in
1991, remains a political powder keg.
"If living standards worsen for a significant part of the population,
the public will lose faith and direct their anger at (President Serzh)
Sarkisian," Yerevan-based political analyst Manvel Sarkisian said.
"He can be forgiven many things, even repression, but not social
problems," he said.
Armen Martirosian, a member of parliament with the opposition Heritage
Party, added: "There is a huge mass of frustrated people within
society, not only the most vulnerable groups but also some in business
circles.
"The current internal political situation is like a volcano waiting to
erupt."
Protesters will call on Sunday for the release of dozens of opposition
supporters jailed following last year’s clashes, including a former
foreign minister whose prosecution some observers fear is politically
motivated.
The street battles broke out last March 1 as police moved to disperse
thousands of supporters of former Armenian president Levon
Ter-Petrosian who had rallied for 11 days to denounce Sarkisian’s win
in a February election.
Two police officers and eight civilians were killed and dozens more
were injured, many from gunshot wounds. Ter-Petrosian had finished
second in the vote.
The authorities said the protesters were preparing to launch a coup,
but opposition supporters insisted their intentions were peaceful.
In the year since, the opposition has failed to galvanise
anti-government sentiment and when a series of planned protests
flopped, announced a break in public demonstrations.
Sunday’s rally will be the first serious attempt at renewing
protests. Analysts are predicting a large turnout but doubt the
protest will mark the beginning of a serious new challenge to the
government.
More worrying for the authorities are the potential losses of
thousands of jobs due to the global economic downturn, analysts said.
The country has already had to turn to close ally Russia for a
500-million-dollar (392-million-euro) stabilisation loan amid reports
of massive job cuts in Armenian industry.
Armenia’s important mining sector has permanently or temporarily laid
off at least 2,500 people in recent months, local media have said. One
Yerevan-based chemical factory alone has laid off more than 1,400
workers.
In a country of just under 3 million people, the loss of a few
thousand jobs can have an enormous impact, analysts said.
Government supporters say the number of job cuts is being exaggerated
and that the authorities will manage to keep the economy strong.
"Major employers have said they are not planning mass firings and many
of them are already receiving loans from the government," said Naira
Zohrabian, a parliamentarian with the Prosperous Armenia party, a
member of the country’s governing coalition.
But with no signs of a global recovery, analysts said the authorities
will only be able to prop up the economy for so long.
"If the crisis lasts for a longer period and there are major job cuts
this may lead to serious instability," said Alexander Iskandarian, the
director of the Caucasus Media Institute.