COLLABORATION BETWEEN IRAN AND TURKEY WILL REHABILITATE NABUCCO AND WEAKEN THE ROLE OF AZERBAIJAN
04 February 2009
Sevak Sarukhanyan’s interview with IA REGNUM
Lately Turkish government has actively lobbied the participation of
Iran in NABUCCO gas pipeline project; because they realize that this
project cannot be implemented without Tehran. This statement was made
by the vice director of "Noravank" foundation Sevak Sarukhanyan in
the interview with IA REGNUM.
"The strengthening of the relations between Iran and Turkey in the
sphere of energetic will definitely make NABUCCO project realizable. Of
course this is not the NABUCCO, which was offered four years ago,
because the new one will be oriented on the gas supply from Iran and
not from the Caspian region, because there are much more political
problems connected with the gas supply from Kazakhstan and from other
countries of the Caspian region", – mentioned the political analyst.
Sarukhanyan explained that the biggest natural gas field South Pars
lies in the Persian Gulf and it does not deal with the problem of the
status of the Caspian Sea. There is no such a problem as non-existing
Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, insecurity in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, which invite danger to the potential South Caucasian section
of the pipeline. "The implementation of the project without Iran
looks to be unlikely, but if Iran joins that project then NABUCCO
most probably will be implemented because the export potential of
Iran is about 80-100 billions cubic meter per year.
NABUCCO is designed for less amount of gas and it can exist only for
the account of Iranian gas", – he told.
Sarukhanyan also commented on the address of Vladimir Putin in Davos
who promised that Northern and Southern streams might provide a regular
supply of gas to Europe. "The construction of those pipelines will
have very positive influence on the European energetic security, but
anyway the issue of the construction of the pipeline from Iran will
remain. Europeans speak much of the diversification of the supplies,
but actually the question is the search of the new sources, which will
help to fill the gap, resultant to the decline in output of the gas
in Norway. Gas consumption in Europe rises while the gas output on the
European continent declines. It is impossible for Europe not to use all
the capabilities for gas output", – he mentioned and underlined that
in the near future Europe might also be in short supply of Russian gas.
Sarukhanyan explained the necessity of the construction of the NABUCCO
through the territory of Iran by the absence of real alternative
to Iranian gas. According to him gas from Africa is shipped as
liquefied gas by vessels, which is very expensive and dangerous. Thus,
the necessity of the pipeline occurs. Besi des, the expert noted
that the participation of Iran in the project would facilitate the
transportation of Turkmen gas if such a necessity arouse.
‘Iran is the key actor on that field. The ex-president of Iran Mohammad
Hatami stated about his obligatory participation in presidential
elections, so if the political authorities in Iran change there will
be much more opportunities to increase the role of Iran in energetic
sphere", – said Sarukhanyan.
In case of this scenario South Caucasus loses its significance from
the point of view of gas transit, but in accordance with the analyst
this will not influence Armenia in any way. "We did not participate in
the regional energetic projects and all that talks that if we ceded
Karabakh to Azerbaijan the pipelines would go through our territory
are just myths.
Armenia would not participate in NABUCCO or other pipeline projects
implementation, so that will not influence it anyway. On the other
hand, the role of Azerbaijan as transit factor of international
energetic security will reduce, thus its significance in the region
will also reduce", – concluded Sarukhanyan.