UP IN ARMS
by Ismail Agazade
Transitions Online
nguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=306&N rSection=1&NrArticle=20333
Jan 28 2009
Czech Republic
Unconfirmed reports that Moscow has made a major shipment of arms to
Armenia has Azerbaijan rethinking its diplomatic footing.
BAKU | Reports of free Russian arms supplies to Armenia, denied by
Moscow and Yerevan, have led many in Azerbaijan to think twice about
the country’s long-held policy of balance between the Kremlin and
the West.
President Ilham Aliyev has remained faithful to his late father’s
policy of walking a tightrope between Russia and the West. He has not
sought NATO membership and has stopped short of giving full support
to the Nabucco pipeline, designed to carry Caspian and Central Asian
gas to Europe via a route bypassing Russia.
Good personal relations with Russian leaders, especially Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin, have usually paid off, particularly after the five-day
war between Russia and Georgia in August. Georgia’s crushing defeat
and Moscow’s recognition of its breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, as independent states showed that Russia was still the power
to be reckoned with, many analysts in Baku said at the time.
If confirmed, however, the alleged Russian arms supplies to Armenia,
which is technically at war with Azerbaijan, would be a serious blow
to backers of the policy of balance. It has even led some here to
call for eventual NATO membership for the Caucasus country.
LOOKING WEST
"One should not believe pledges of everlasting friendship with Russia,
especially if our interests do not coincide," wrote Rovshan Shykhly,
a columnist with Azerbaijan’s Russian-language independent daily,
Zerkalo. "It is time for Azerbaijan to draw conclusions."
Referring to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s description of
Azerbaijan as a "a strategic partner," Shykhly wrote: "First, we
need to realize that no high-level statement on strategic partnership
between Russia and Azerbaijan would save us if the Kremlin decided to
provoke armed conflict in order to keep the region under its sphere
of influence or to torpedo the Nabucco project."
Vafa Guluzada, a former presidential adviser on foreign affairs,
contends that Azerbaijan is under "constant threat" from Russia and
should seek closer military cooperation with the West.
"We need a military alliance with the United States and NATO bases on
our soil. I called for this back in 1999, when I was still a member of
[Azerbaijan’s] Security Council," he said.
"Armenia is a Russian outpost," Guluzada added, referring to a 2007
statement to that effect by Russian Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov. "The
Armenian army is part of the Russian army."
The former Azerbaijani ambassador to Russia, Hikmat Hajizada, has also
said Baku should move toward NATO, although he acknowledges that the
U.S.-led alliance would likely not welcome Georgia or Azerbaijan into
the bloc under current circumstances. As for seeking military aid
from Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally, Hajizada told the newspaper
Ekspress: "Turkey is not in a position to help us single-handedly. It
can only help with Western support."
Jasur Sumarinli, a military analyst with the Azerbaijani-language
daily Ayna, said the alleged arms transfer to Armenia will pull Georgia
and Azerbaijan farther away from Russia and bring them closer to NATO.
However, Eldar Namazov, another former aide to the Azerbaijani
president, said the government lacks the "political will" to push
for closer ties to the Western alliance.
"Azerbaijan’s sitting on the fence does not solely depend on the
Russia factor," Namazov said. He said Baku does not accept a set of
principles – including democratization – required for NATO membership.
"Azerbaijan is only imitating integration with NATO," he added.
Azerbaijan has cooperated with NATO since 1994, when it joined the
alliance’s Partnership for Peace program. It has sent troops to Kosovo,
Afghanistan, and Iraq and opened its airspace for NATO aircraft during
operations in Afghanistan.
NEW YEAR’S GIFT
The arms dust-up started in December, after Azerbaijani media reported
that weapons worth nearly $800 million dollars were transferred to
Armenia through a Russian military base in the northern Armenian town
of Gyumri.
This "New Year’s gift," as some journalists labeled it, included
21 T-72 tanks, 27 fighting infantry carriers, 12 armored personnel
carriers, five BRDM armored vehicles, 4,300 Kalashnikov assault rifles,
various kinds of Shilka and Strela missiles, multiple rocket launchers,
and thousands of explosives.
In a statement on 15 January, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry protested
the alleged arms transfer, warning that it could undermine the
"strategic partnership" between Baku and the Kremlin. It said an
investigation into the reports had revealed "enough grounds" to
conclude that the arms transfer did take place.
"The arms transferred [to Armenia] will significantly strengthen
the military potential of the country that has occupied part of
the territory of the Azerbaijani Republic. The Azerbaijani Foreign
Ministry believes that the transfer of the weapons will enable
[Armenia] to continue this occupation," the statement read.
Azerbaijan and Armenia remain technically at war over over
Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory populated primarily by ethnic Armenians
that broke away from Baku’s control following fighting in the early
1990s. The territory, along with seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts,
have remained under Armenian control since a 1994 ceasefire.
Nearly 30,000 people were killed and more than 1 million were displaced
as a result of the hostilities.
Azerbaijan has not ruled out using military force to regain control
of the territory, and more than a decade of peace talks mediated by
the United States, Russia, and France have yielded no results.
In its 15 January statement, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said
the arms transfer would violate UN resolutions that ban the arming
of the sides to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"The Foreign Ministry believes that this places special responsibility
on Russia for the future development of the situation in the resolution
of the conflict," the statement read.
‘A PIECE OF DISINFORMATION’
In a narrowly worded note on 21 January, the Russian Foreign Ministry
said that in 2008 Russia "did not give or sell weapons to Armenia
of the types or quantities" claimed by Azerbaijan. "This [report]
is a piece of disinformation of a clearly anti-Russian nature which
does not contribute to the positive development of friendly relations
between Russia and Azerbaijan," the statement read.
The ministry also pointed to Azerbaijan’s "hasty conclusions and steps"
on the issue of the alleged arms supplies, expressing the hope that
Russia and Azerbaijan "will jointly dispel possible doubts in the
spirit of the strategic partnership" between the two countries if
any concerns emerge in the future.
The 21 January note is a subtle shift from earlier statements by
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that his country supplied no
weapons to Armenia in 2008.
The Armenian Defense Ministry also dismissed the reports as
disinformation.
"Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. We
have military contacts with Russia. But I do not remember any such
purchases in recent years," the ministry spokesman, Colonel Seyran
Shahsuvaryan, told the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS.
Azerbaijani political analyst Zardusht Alizada says of the alleged
weapons supply that Russia is trying to allay Yerevan’s fears in face
of Azerbaijan’s growing military spending.
"Russia is trying to calm Armenia down, saying, ‘Don’t be afraid,
I am supporting you. Do not step back even one iota,’ " Alizada
told Ekspress. He argues that preserving the status quo in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is in Russia’s interest, as the unresolved
conflict allows the Kremlin to keep both Baku and Yerevan under
control.
Aliyev has repeatedly said that he may use military force "at any time"
to retake Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent Azerbaijani districts
should peace talks fail. He reiterated this at a televised cabinet
meeting on 17 January. He also announced that in 2009 Azerbaijan’s
military spending would total $2.3 billion, almost six times Armenia’s
military budget.
Ismail Agazade is a pseudonym for a Baku-based journalist.