MOSCOW DECLARATION STIPULATES THAT FOR PRESENT SETTLEMENT OF KARABAKH PROBLEM IS NOT POSSIBLE
NOYAN TAPAN
Dec 18, 2008
YEREVAN
YEREVAN, DECEMBER 18, NOYAN TAPAN. In the opinion of the director
of the Caucasus Media Institute Alexander Iskandarian, the defeat
inflicted by Russian troops on the Georgian army caused a panic in
Azerbaijan, nullifying the opportunity of a military solution of the
Karabakh problem. The Armenian-Turkish contacts which, regardless
of further development of the relations of the two countries, have
already changed the situation in the region, have also contributed
to the weakening of Azerbaijan’s positions.
As A. Iskandarian said during the discussion on the subject "The
Perception of the Karabakh Conflict by Society and the Results of
the Negotiation Process in 2008", at the same time some panic moods
were recorded in Armenia as well as some political forces and mass
media outlets spoke about the inevitability of surrendering Karabakh
to Azerbaijan in the near future.
However, according to A. Iskandarian, such statements were made
not based on an analysis of the situation but from political
considerations.
The political scientist expressed an opinion that the Karabakh problem
cannot be solved thanks to volitional abilities of some persons or
forces or thanks to newly proposed solutions. It is a derivative of
the balance among numerous players and factors in the region, and only
in case of violation of that balance, a sharp change can be recorded.
In the words of the former deputy foreign minister of Nagorno Karabakh
Masis Mayilian, the Russian-Turkish rapprochement after the August
events creates a possibility of such a violation of the balance,
which is fraught with danger of a not pro-Armenian solution of the
Karabakh conflict.
As regards Georgia, in the words of A. Iskandarian, as a result of
the Russian-Georgian war, Georgia has become much weaker, and not
only from the economic and military point of view: its positions as
a stronghold of democracy in the South Caucasus have weakened, while
Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili lost his reputation for being
the most democratic president in the region.