THAW SEEMS TO HAVE EMERGED IN THE PROCESS OF THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT REGULATION
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
04.11.2008 GMT+04:00
Signing of the Declaration was accelerated by the "five-day" war
of Georgia against South Ossetia. In spite of the burning desire of
Georgia and Azerbaijan, Russia displayed complete unwillingness to
resign from the Region.
The Moscow Declaration on political settlement the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict signed by the Presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan
once again awakened interest in the seemingly "frozen" conflict. In
fact, we witnessed assertion of what we used to repeat for years – the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must be resolved on the basis of principles
and norms of the international law.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On the whole, there was nothing new in the
Declaration, in spite of the numerous commentaries both from the
Armenian and Azerbaijani sides. Notwithstanding the attempts of
Official Baku to tilt the balance to her advantage by declaring that
the right of territorial integrity stands higher than the right of
a nation to self-determination, the Declaration contains no such
clause. Azerbaijan insists on the priority of territorial integrity,
while Armenia demands right of nations to self-determination. In other
words Azerbaijan is determined to return the "occupied" territories,
while Armenia requires independence of Nagorno Karabakh.
On this occasion it would be relevant to remind Press Secretary of
Azerbaijani FM Khazar Ibrahim that in 1999 Istanbul Charter was
adopted in which all the 10 principles of the Helsinki Final Act
were equal, and, what is equally important, the Charter also contains
the signature of Azerbaijan. Khazar Ibrahim can’t but know about it,
and if it is so, he opposes his President…
But let us leave aside such trifles. For Armenia, and also for
Azerbaijan one of the basic provisions of the Declaration is that in
spite of the absence of Nagorno Karabakh in the negotiation process
the OSCE Minsk Group remains a mediator in the talks. The point is
not in its being good or bad, simply there is no other worked-out
mechanism yet. It was especially with the help of the OSCE Minsk
Group that the conflict did not enter a "hot" phase.
Signing of the Declaration was accelerated by the "five-day" war
of Georgia against South Ossetia. In spite of the burning desire of
Georgia and Azerbaijan, Russia displayed complete unwillingness to
resign from the Region. Moreover, unleashing a war is especially
dangerous for the side that declares it and Ilham Aliyev realizes
it perfectly. Naturally, should it declare war against Nagorno
Karabakh, Russia would not interfere. Well, in any case the
Nagorno-Karabakh Defence Army is in no need of assistance. It
absolutely manages to defend its borders and Baku knows it well. At a
recent Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting representatives of Azerbaijan once
again began listing their military equipment, the volume of gas and
oil export, etc. On this account, experts of the Armenian delegation
wished Azerbaijan well-being and prosperity but they also noticed
that however rich in oil and gas Azerbaijan might be, most of its
population live in poverty, and for nearly 20 years miserable refugees
have been nestling in tent camps, embodying the martyr Azerbaijan.
But let us revert to the Declaration. Clause 5 says: "The parties
find it important to encourage conditions that will contribute to
the consolidation of trust, within the framework of efforts aimed
at settling the conflict." This must be the most difficult point to
realize, since anti-Armenian hysteria in Azerbaijan, heated and openly
provoked by the authorities can be overcome only after generations
and only on the condition that it is immediately put an end to. This
hysteria has its reasons: Azerbaijan is a poly-ethnic republic and
the image of a "common external enemy" still helps the authorities to
preserve the integrity of their country. Thus, when Baku speaks of the
territorial integrity of the country, it realizes that not only Nagorno
Karabakh will become independent. Talishes, Lezgins, and Udins will
also demand independence. They are all compactly living on their land
and were once joined to Azerbaijan at the will of Stalin and Narimanov.
Be that as it may, thaw seems to have emerged in the process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. On the one hand, the desire
of Turkey and Iran to take part in the process causes some anxiety
since both these countries are extremely interested in Azerbaijan
and Armenia. On the other hand, however, the OSCE Minsk Group would
hardly like to draw new players into this game. In any case a pretty
interesting situation is taking shape in the South Caucasus, after
which the region may finally change both in borders and in the quantity
of states.