OBAMA: THE NEW GUY IN TOWN
By Emre Uslu & Onder Aytac
Today’s Zaman
Nov 3 2008
Turkey
Short of a surprise, Barack Obama will be the next president of
the United States. It will be a truly historic period for American
politics as well as world affairs. Given that the basic premises of
Obama’s election strategy are "hope" and "change," one should ask in
what direction "change" in American policies will be evolving and to
whom it brings hope.
There is no doubt that not only his domestic politics but his foreign
policy preferences will be shaped by his overall message that a
positive change can create hope for Americans. His basic premise would
tell us in what direction American foreign policy preferences will
evolve in our region. It seems that the world is supporting Obama’s
idea of "change"; however, the "change" that Obama talks about and the
"change" people around the world expect might not be compatible.
Obama’s "change" policies will be predominantly oriented toward
American domestic policy. For instance, by ending the unpopular
war in Iraq, he expects to generate momentum among American people
to support his foreign policy preferences. But his preference to
change the status quo in Iraq may not make Kurds in Iraq happy and
hopeful. Would it make Turkey happy? We do not know yet. His policy
to change American aggressions around the world could make Russia
more aggressive. Would that make Georgia, Ukraine or Turkey happy? No.
When establishing his foreign policies, what Obama will predominantly
take into account is what Americans think about developments around the
world. Thus, media coverage about the crises around the world would
be one of the factors that would pressure the Obama administration
to take action. For instance, an Obama administration would likely
get directly involved with a crisis similar to Darfur. Unless these
problems thaw on their own, Obama isn’t likely to get involved in
frozen conflicts such as Cyprus or the Armenian genocide claims. Based
on this expectation, we can assume that an Obama administration would
be one that seeks to work with the actors to maintain the status quo.
Turkey is one of the actors with which the Obama administration would
want to establish better relations from Day 1. In fact, the Obama
campaign announced the restoration of a strategic partnership with
Turkey. In their foreign policy outline, "A Stronger Partnership
with Europe for a Safer America," Obama and Biden devoted a whole
paragraph to Turkey. They said that they "believe that a close
relationship with a stable, democratic, Western-oriented Republic
of Turkey is an important U.S. national interest. That relationship
has been deeply strained in recent years, most importantly by the
Bush administration’s misguided and mismanaged intervention in Iraq,
which has helped revive the terrorist threat posed to Turkey by the
separatist Kurdish Workers’ Party [PKK]."
It signals that an Obama administration, unlike the Bush
administration, will be actively involved in solving the PKK problem
in Turkey. They outline a plan to "bring together Turkish and Iraqi
Kurdish leaders and negotiate a comprehensive agreement that deals
with the PKK threat, guarantees Turkey’s territorial integrity,
and facilitates badly needed Turkish investment in and trade with
the Kurds of northern Iraq."
Unlike the advocates of the "genocide industry" in Turkey and
Washington who claim that Obama and Biden will put Turkey in a
difficult position, it would certainly be a good sign for Turkey to
see an Obama administration. He and Biden are two pragmatic American
politicians, and most importantly, they understand Turkey’s critical
position.
In fact, the word "genocide" in their outline is spelled out only
once to mention the Bosnian genocide. There is no mention of Armenia,
and they devoted another paragraph to the Cyprus problem. On that,
they "believe strongly that Cyprus should remain a single country in
which each of the two communities on the island is able to exercise
substantial political authority in its own geographical zone —
with a just and mutually agreed settlement of difficult issues like
property, refugees, land, and security." Is there a major difference
between what Turkey wants and what Obama and Biden want? No.
Most importantly, Obama and Biden, unlike the Bush administration,
understand the volatility of Turkish democracy and put emphasis
on "Turkish democracy" without any adjective before it. In their
statement, they clearly outline that they "will support the promotion
of democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression in Turkey and
support its efforts to join the European Union."
After all that, what can a Turk say? Welcome, Obama and Biden!